Golf betting tips: The Chevron Championship preview

Golf betting tips: Chevron Championship

1pt e.w. Minjee Lee at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Leona Maguire at 35/1 (BetVictor, Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Hye Jin Choi at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Maja Stark at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Like standing at a London bus stop, the golf world has waited for one dominant World No. 1 and then two have come around the corner nose to tail. A week after Scottie Scheffler was the hot favourite to win the first men’s major championship of 2024, Nelly Korda finds herself in the same situation heading into the Chevron Championship at The Club at Carlton Woods in Texas.

Just as Scheffler has been dealing with Tiger Woods comparisons, so the women’s game harks back to Annika Sorenstam and Korda has some way to go to reach the Swede’s remarkable dominance. In her heyday, between late 2001 and early 2005, Sorenstam won 33 of 68 starts – outrageous quality and quantity, but Korda is on a pretty special run herself.

The 25-year-old claimed four wins back in 2021, including a first major, but then suffered a blood clot in early 2022 and has only approached full fitness this season whereupon she’s reeled off four consecutive victories. Were she to make it five-in-a-row this week she would join Sorenstam and the equally great Nancy Lopez in the record books as the only players to have achieved the feat (and the first two completed it in a major).

Ahead of her bid for history, she was asked if the prospect of joining an elite club is a burden. She was unlikely to say yes and answered: “No, it’s an inspiration.” She has a fine chance, as implied by the odds which have her at a general 5/1 with the next best rated 25/1. Moreover, the five players deemed her closest challengers have, as we shall see, doubts to overcome. Korda has finished top three in her last three starts in this tournament (the first two of those at the previous venue in Mission Hills) and, as proved last year when she was solo third, she’s a good fit for the course.

Carlton Woods is a Jack Nicklaus design that features, as described by Stacy Lewis, “a ton of run-offs where you can get short-sided and have some tough up and downs.” This threat is heightened by the key Nicklaus design principle of testing distance control with approaches. Last year’s winner Lilia Vu ranked third for hitting greens, runner-up Angel Yin was seventh and Korda first. This year the course has been tweaked, emphasising the elevations of the greens and improving irrigation. Add in drier weather and Korda reported: “It’s a lot bouncier. Last year it played soft. From what I’ve seen you can’t be as aggressive as last year … and if it gets windy out here it’s going to be really tough.” Approach shots will remain crucial, but maybe smarter ones although the wind is currently forecast to be no great factor.

While Korda (third for GIR this season, 14th for SG Approach) has the tools to withstand the test a few things nag. That third place last year is, for example, her only top seven finish in the majors since winning the KPMG PGA Championship in 2021 and, for all the injury woes, that’s not great for a 5/1 shot. The shadow of history will be long at the weekend, too.

What of her nearest rivals? Atthaya Thitikul is making a seasonal debut because of a thumb injury. Her original return date was late March so is she ready? Jin Young Ko has played just twice this year following a knee problem late in 2023. Brooke Henderson is a consistent major competitor who found hitting approaches tricky last year. If that was a one-off rather than the course not fitting her eye she might suit. Sei Young Kim is in fine fettle and a major winner but, like Henderson, her price looks about right.

Lydia Ko is another chasing history because victory would reap her sufficient points to join the World Golf Hall of Fame. It’s a story of a kind, one that goes down well in the States, but it feels a bit like telling an Olympic athlete that a top podium finish in Paris this summer will earn an MBE. It remains the case that Ko hasn’t added to her haul of two majors since this event in early 2016 and last year she didn’t register one top 30 in them.

Preference is for MINJEE LEE to resume her fondness for the majors. The Aussie landed two wins and another four top five finishes in 11 majors from the end of 2020 through 2022 before losing her form last summer. A couple of wins in autumn righted the ship somewhat and there have been signs of good form recently, notably a fourth in China last month and a bright start last time out.

She said after that latter result: “This is a second shot course and that’s in my favour, it’s where I excel.” She also plays bouncy golf well and the quality of her approaches is backed up by a ranking of second in that SG category this year (she also ranked first in it last time out). In better form than last year, with conditions that suit, she can go well at 33/1.

At a similar price, Ireland’s LEONA MAGUIRE looks in great shape to contend this week. She ultimately lost the T-Mobile Match Play final to Korda but before that she’d led the 54-hole stroke play qualifier by three shots and said afterwards: “We knew it was going to be tough and windy, that the greens were firm. Today was a big mental win for me.”

She’d hit plenty of greens most of the year and has ranked second in both her last two starts, but she added quality, ranking seventh for Approach in the T-Mobile. She finished 23rd in the event last year having got off to a slow start with a 76 that left her 98th in the field. A two-time LPGA winner and Solheim Cup star, a genuine tussle at the top in the majors is the next step and this week is a great opportunity.

South Korea’s HYE JIN CHOI had a fine 2022 major season with a pair of top four finishes in the States and she was just two shots off the 54-hole lead in this event 12 months ago when she ranked third for hitting the greens. Shortly after that the 24-year-old returned to the KLPGA and landed a 12th win there. This year on the LPGA she’s logged four top 20s in six starts and last time out she ranked fifth for GIR and 12th for Approach.

A final pick and a little speculative is the Swede MAJA STARK. She was 37th here last year but played nicely tee to green (10th for GIR) and shortly after was ninth in the US Women’s Open, a third top 20 in that event in four starts. She was third two starts ago and admitted that she’d had a tough start to the year but there was an explanation: “I just got my putter re-gripped and they checked the loft and lie on it. It was way off. He said, no wonder you haven’t been putting well, this doesn’t work.” She also added: “Even though I missed the cut last week my irons were better than they’ve ever been.” She has form on bouncy tracks and can be backed at three figures. Take the 100/1 with six places.

Posted at 1450 BST on 17/04/24

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