Golf betting tips: Specials, first-round leader and top-20 finish tips for Genesis Invitational
Ben Coley digs into the specials markets for the Genesis Invitational, with Cameron Tringale can bag a top-20 finish.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational
2pts Cameron Tringale to finish in the top 20 at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas to lead after R1 at 90/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Sebastian Munoz to lead after R1 at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
- Matt Fitzpatrick withdrew and stakes on him in top Englishman market will be refunded
I was close to siding with CAMERON TRINGALE in the outright market at 80/1, but will opt for the more realistic top-20 finish at 3/1.
Tringale has taken his game to a new level of the last couple of seasons, something worth remembering when writing him off as a potential PGA Tour winner after more than 300 starts at this level. Only recently has he performed like a player we should expect to be winning, and though the odd shaky finish would have to concern backers, at 34 he has time on his side.
This nevertheless would be some place to break through, given the strength of the field, but it's Tringale's self-confessed favourite course on the circuit and one at which the Californian has been very effective. In 10 starts now he's missed just one cut, that during the worst season of his career, and he has a total of six top-30 finishes to go with a best of eighth place in 2017.
Tringale was the world number 248 back then, but right now is up to 51st having managed a personal best of 49th after taking third place in the Farmers two starts ago. He is in the form of his life and, with a 40% top-20 return since the beginning of 2021, the odds here underestimate him after a missed cut at Pebble Beach, where his record is far less impressive.
The top South African market looks really competitive with any one of the five capable of obliging, and I'm not quite sold on taking on Cameron Smith as the top Australian. Backing Marc Leishman and Adam Scott combined, at odds-against, paid off in last year's US Open and may do again, but Smith has taken his game to new heights since and fully deserves to be a strong favourite at 13/8.
A similar policy could pay off in finding the top Canadian, with the consistent Adam Hadwin and in-form Taylor Pendrith both making some appeal. The favourites here are Corey Conners and Mackenzie Hughes, who together have missed four cuts from five at the course, while Roger Sloan ought not to be a threat. Pendrith at 7/1 for a top-20 finish was also considered but this is his debut at a course which is less suitable than Torrey Pines (T16).
South Americans to star on Thursday
Finally, a word or two on the first-round leader market, which has often gone to an elite player here but with enough exceptions (Sam Saunders, Camilo Villegas, James Hahn, Daniel Summerhays, Derek Fathauer, Spencer Levin) to encourage those looking for a couple at bigger prices.
Carlos Ortiz is very much on the shortlist and one to look out for. The Mexican, fresh from last week's hole-in-one heroics in Phoenix, has an excellent record here, finishing 20th, 26th, ninth and 26th before missing the cut after a rare bad start last year.
Three times he's been inside the top 10 after the first round and while yet to go lower than 67, he's very much been a persistent threat in this market. It should be noted he's yet to end the first round at the top of the leaderboard at this level, however, and without knowing when he'll tee off I can't quite drum up the necessary enthusiasm in the absence of three-figure prices.
I will however chance JHONATTAN VEGAS, whose record in the first round is much more impressive, and who played by far the best golf in the field over the weekend of the Saudi International when last we saw him, climbing 45 places to finish eighth after rounds of 65 and 66.
Vegas has finished the first round inside the top 10 in nine of his last 18 starts, a pretty remarkable return, and was out in front in the 3M Open last summer. More recently he shot 62 at the RSM Classic and is four-from-eight this season when it comes to top-10 finishes on day one. Over the course of his career, he's about one-in-eight in terms of hitting the frame (top six), and one-in-five when it comes to being inside the top 10, and all of his good seasons on the PGA Tour have been built on strong first-round scoring.
A wonderful driver of the ball who has a round of 66 to his name here, Vegas is the type who might just play the three par-fives in three- or four-under and if he can also take advantage of the risk-reward 10th, there we have the foundations for another bright beginning from the popular Venezuelan. It's a small-stakes play absent of tee-times and with the strength of field very much factored in, but 66/1 and bigger is fine.
Keegan Bradley has a reputation for landing this bet and is respected, but SEBASTIAN MUNOZ is just preferred in a South American attack on the market.
Munoz has six first-round leads in 108 PGA Tour starts, with seven further top-fives to land the place money, and is one of the streakiest players on the circuit, as we saw when he birdied five of the last six holes on Sunday. He played nicely all week in Phoenix, carding four under-par rounds, and shot an excellent 65 on the easier North Course at Torrey Pines before producing a solid weekend.
In other words he looks to be in good form and having signed off 2021 with an opening 60 in the RSM Classic, he could well do as he's done before and soon follow up in this unique market. The fact that he's broken 70 three times in eight rounds here, making the cut on both appearances after strong starts, is encouraging, and if the putter warms up after a quality tee-to-green display last week, he can emulate compatriot Villegas and show them the way.
Posted at 1045 GMT on 15/02/22
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