Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Scottish Challenge

• Event 17 of the season sees a return to the UK at Roxburghe
• Last week saw Scotland produce a shock 750/1 winner
• Top 15 on the Road to Mallorca are all in attendance

Golf betting tips: Scottish Challenge

3pts win Pablo Ereno at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

3pts win Hamish Brown at 25/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)

1pt e.w. John Gough at 50/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Barclay Brown at 66/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Calum Fyfe at 80/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Andres Gallegos at 175/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

4x 0.25pt win doubles Ereno/H Brown and Koivun/Thomas

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

When the HotelPlanner Tour visited Estonia for the first time, there were ingredients in place for a surprise. Firstly, that's the nature of the circuit this season, as it was last. There are promising players here, the likes of Pablo Ereno and Adam Wallin, Hamish Brown and John Gough, and there are some good ones like MJ Daffue and Kristian Krogh Johannessen, but there might not be many budding stars. Two years ago, two players earned battlefield promotion and both have since played well in a major. For most of these, that level seems out of reach.

The other ingredient was the fact that the course was new to most. Significantly, several of those who'd played it a decade earlier in a top amateur event fared well, including Andrew Wilson and Michael Hirmer. But the champion? Well, he had nothing to recommend him. Rory Franssen looked good on the Tartan Tour last year but so far this had failed to crack the top 50 anywhere and was 218th on the points list. With the Estonian players not quite up to it, in swooped a different 750/1 shot for his first win. He's now 30th.

It's been that kind of season but factors like course knowledge and being at home remain massive and we saw as much when Daniel Young won last year's Scottish Challenge. He'd played SCHLOSS Roxburghe several times and had friends and family cheering for him, which is especially useful in events where crowds are sparse. In third was Euan Walker, who'd played a big amateur event at this pristine, parkland course near Kelso, and as we return to it the chances of another surprise winner seem reduced.

Young, Walker, third-placed Julien Quesne and halfway leader Quim Vidal tell us a lot about Roxburghe, which will again play quite firm. It's relatively short and while some fairways are generous, they'll play narrower given how much the ball should roll. Three par-fives are all there to be taken on whereas the par-four seventh is brutally long, but the rest of the course is made up of what you might call stock holes where being in position is the first job. Vidal talked about how, as a shorter hitter, conditions really helped him.

Its designer, Dave Thomas, is responsible for the Brabazon Course at the Belfry and that's made more interesting by the fact that Gough finished fourth. Gough, now a winner at this level, popped up in contention when playing on a British Masters invite a couple of years ago; Bryce Easton, Hurly Long, Eddie Pepperell and Craig Howie also have form there and all were relatively close behind, so perhaps that's a link we'll see strengthened in time, albeit few players in this field have competitive form at the Brabazon.

As for being at home, clearly that helps most if you're from Scotland but anyone from the UK and Ireland has to be at an advantage of some kind. The two winners of this prior to Young were from England and part of the reason we see so many South African players come through this circuit, including last year's Road to Mallorca champion and this year's leader, is that they get four home events to kick things off. Six of the last eight of those have been won by South African golfers and when expensive travel and unfamiliar conditions make a tough job tougher, having no such fears for a week or four can be enormous.

Here last year there were three Scots inside the top 10 and seven in the top 30 while Easton, who got married in St Andrews and used to live in Southport, sort of counts as an honorary Brit. Hamish Brown, runner-up to an Englishman in 2024, certainly does – he's lived in Denmark his entire life but his dad is Scottish, as you might've guessed from the name. The point, laboured as ever, is that we should expect another strong challenge from the home players this week, and we are don't forget just 10 miles from the border with England.

A couple of other courses to ponder are Pleneuf in France and Spey Valley here in Scotland. There are some recent ties between this place and the former, while Young is a winner at Spey Valley and that's another parkland course that's been used on this circuit before. Young also has a good record at Newmachar, which happens to be another Thomas design and the last host course of this tournament before it moved to Kelso. I'd say it'll throw up some clues as well.

We'll come to the locals, but PABLO ERENO and HAMISH BROWN both boast outstanding credentials and I'll split stakes between them.

Ereno reached as high as sixth in the World Amateur Golf Ranking before turning professional last summer and gaining valuable experience playing on invites. That included at the Belfry, where he played well for a time, as he had in the Nexo Championship here in Scotland. If there is to be a star from this crop, chances are it's him.

But as you'd expect, it wasn't until his first full year as a pro began that he started to accelerate and after a couple of top-fives in South Africa, he won his first HotelPlanner Tour event in Europe, which took place in his native Spain. With Brown beaten in a play-off and Daffue third, it was the strongest leaderboard we've had so far this season as these are the current top three in points.

Six top-20s in eight starts subsequently includes one in the KLM Open but I'm more interested in the fact that Ereno led at halfway at Pleneuf, where no doubt the fact that he's an accurate driver worked to his advantage as he contended right to the death. More recently, he carded the round of the day last Saturday in Estonia and backed it up to finish in ninth place.

He doesn't have local ties, of course, but did top a First Stage qualifier in northern England last year and this sort of test really ought to suit. It's little more than 12 months since Ereno was mixing it with Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout, Ben James and other elite amateurs out in the US and having made a smooth transition to the professional game, he's on his way to the DP World Tour.

This may well be the week he takes over top spot on the Road to Mallorca, and if he doesn't then perhaps Brown will as these two appear far more suited to the assignment than leader Daffue and a couple more of the market principals.

Here we do have a local connection of sorts, as touched upon, but more important is the fact that Brown has done everything but win this season. He has nine top-25 finishes in his last 10 and three of them have seen him finish second, while last week he again led through 54 holes before an admittedly poor Sunday.

Concerns over his ability to get over the line are allayed by two wins the last time he played a full season at this level and, crucially, the first of them came after he'd bombed out when bang in the mix the previous week. That's the scenario we have here and with focused sharpened, I can see history repeating, the fact that he's back in his dad's homeland perhaps another small boost to his chances.

Brown was runner-up in this event two years ago when never leaving the top five at Newmachar and like Ereno, I've no real concerns over the suitability of the course. Instead of picking between them I'll split stakes win-only and with two of the favourites fancied on the PGA Tour, very small cross doubles hold sufficient appeal too.

Fyfe flying the flag

Unlike the aforementioned duo, Eddie Pepperell does have course experience courtesy of a top-20 finish last year and he's contended for the British Masters at the Belfry before, too. A winner at Pleneuf right at the start of his career, there are plenty of reasons to believe he'll be competitive down in grade and I wouldn't worry too much about a missed cut at Eichenried, a course he's never played well.

If Pepperell is ready to go after a month off then he probably sets the standard on the strength of seven top-30s on the main tour this season, but this has the look of a nice tune-up to prepare for the Danish Golf Championship next week. In horse racing terms, perhaps he'll improve for the run whereas last year's effort here came on the heels of a top 10 in Germany.

Ryan Lumsden's season is yet to get going after a career-threatening injury last year, but CALUM FYFE is flying the flag for Scotland at 28th in the Road to Mallorca and can lead the charge here too.

Fyfe was 43rd in last year's Scottish Challenge but that came despite a slow start and on the back of a couple of missed cuts, whereas this time he's made six in seven with the exception seeing him fall just a shot short. His form is much better now and while not as strong as when fourth in Italy back in May, a return home could make all the difference.

Fyfe also has some strong correlating form, as he's never been outside the top 20 in six starts at Newmachar and has finished 23rd and 21st in his last two trips to Pleneuf. And, crucially, he's a former Scotland teammate of Franssen and I do feel he's bound to be inspired by the stunning victory of his compatriot last week.

This sort of thing happens all the time on what was the Challenge Tour. Last year, veteran James Morrison won and his friend Dave Horsey followed suit the very next week. Young's win here came soon after David Law's, who then won again, and in 2024 we had two Swedes in three weeks, back-to-back Danes, then three more Swedish victories in a run of four.

2023 was the year of the Italians, several of them talking about how they were pushing each other forward, and the same season we had Alex Fitzpatrick and Sam Bairstow win back-to-back. Their respective home courses are less than 10 miles apart in the north of England.

So, don't be surprised of Franssen's victory rubs off on one of his compatriots. Note that he spoke about celebrating with his Scottish and Irish friends, so an eye on the likes of Liam Nolan and Mark Power may also be necessary, but Fyfe is the Scotsman who ticks all the boxes. The cherry on top is that he was seventh in the Scottish Boys' here alongside Walker so there are fond memories of the course too.

I would like to be siding with others from Scotland but to be frank there aren't many viable options and veteran Marc Warren doesn't appeal enough at 50/1. We have seen plenty of class acts drop down and win at this level and Warren is capable, but bar a closing 63 for second place in the Swiss Challenge his form has been no more than modest. Even that effort speaks to the fact that one round tends to catch him out.

Matteo Cristoni is a progressive young Italian who was good enough to be 11th in his national open and has played really well since recovering from a slow start in Germany. We're still learning about him, but the fact he won the Scottish Boys' caught my eye and from what little I've seen, there's plenty to like. He reminds me a bit of Guido Migliozzi in how he swings it and signs are he'll enjoy plenty of success in the coming years.

Cristoni is an obvious form option and 40/1 seems fair but the similarly promising BARCLAY BROWN is preferred.

Born and raised in Sheffield, where he played out of the Hallamshire alongside the Fitzpatrick brothers, Brown will enjoy being back in the UK and was third in the English Open a couple of months ago. That made it bookend top-three finishes in a run of seven events at this level since his decision to accept a last-minute invite paid off in Italy.

It's on such details that a career can be transformed and Brown now has his sights set on the DP World Tour, his prospects of getting there boosted by last week's top-10 finish in Estonia which moved him into the final card spot. It came about thanks four birdies over the closing five holes, too, so he should be bouncing into this next opportunity closer to home.

And Brown need not look far for inspiration of his own. A Walker Cup teammate of Alex Fitzpatrick, he also played his college golf at Stanford alongside Michael Thorbjornsen, Sunday's breakthrough winner on the PGA Tour. He's really taken off since Fitzpatrick broke through in the spring and maybe in some small way, the two are related.

One way or another, Brown is going from strength to strength and at around the 50/1 mark there's plenty to like.

Charlie Forster is another young Englishman even earlier into his journey and he's impressed throughout this debut campaign. That said, he's yet to properly contend and it feels like the market has cottoned onto him quickly, perhaps no surprise given that he was a Walker Cup player last year, losing singles matches to Stout and James, who've we've seen mixing it in the US recently.

Forster, Horsey and JOHN GOUGH all have each-way prospects but I'm a bit surprised the latter is the biggest price among them, now almost twice the price of Horsey in fact as money comes for the veteran.

Gough was fourth here last year thanks to a closing 65, that bogey-free round making it two top-fives for the season with the first having come at Pleneuf. It's at Pleneuf that he won his first professional title in June, leading from start to finish, so is it asking too much that he completes the set by winning this too?

It may not be, as Gough went on to be 22nd the following week, missed the cut by one shot after an awful start in Brno, then left that behind in Estonia where he was second after round one and fourth at halfway. Saturday's 74 will have stung, particularly as three of his four dropped shots came on par-fives, but he put it behind him with a bogey-free final round.

Gough is a generally neat and tidy player whose home course is somewhat similar to this one and while we're not getting the prices available before his breakthrough in France, his blend of current and course form is difficult to overlook at 40s and upwards.

At bigger prices, Michael Hirmer contended last week and could finally be ready to deliver on his PGT form, with a previous top-10 finish in this tournament at Newmachar enough to earn him a second glance. Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen meanwhile doesn't come with a form case, but he's won from out of the blue in each of the last two seasons, contended here last year, and played the course as an amateur too.

Returning to the Scots, Sam Locke has won 10 times on the Tartan Tour, whose money list Franssen topped last year, and is one of several who could draw inspiration from the latter's heroics. Locke is of particular interest as he's probably still got a bit more scope than some, having been a wide-margin winner of the Scottish Amateur and won the Silver Medal at Carnoustie a year later, although this was back in 2018.

Will Porter and Jack McDonald are others who largely play on that circuit and both fared well for three rounds here last year, but Porter has been quiet lately while McDonald is now a PGA professional seemingly looking beyond his career on tour. Maybe making the cut in the Open last time out will spark something but he's far too short a price with most firms and has to be left alone.

It'd be no big surprise were someone like Locke to improve upon recent results and threaten the top 10, but lightning striking twice is another matter so we'll side instead with ANDRES GALLEGOS, who is progressing and could threaten at a big price.

Like so many before him, this Argentine has struggled playing out of a Q-School category on the DP World Tour. In essence this means he's feeding on scraps, unable to access the biggest events, forced to play whenever he can and seldom sure of a start. So far this season he's had only a dozen chances and that's in almost nine months.

It takes a monumental effort to keep your head above water and it looks like Gallegos will fail to do so, but there has been reward for his patience and perseverance down at this level lately. He's progressed from 34th at Pleneuf to 25th in Germany and then 17th in Estonia. And he's done so despite a series of slow starts, including a nine in round one last week, from which he did very well to recover.

Among this sequence he also missed the cut by a single shot in the BMW International Open, which gives us a deeper look at the state of his game. Friday's second round was good, his ball-striking impressive, and he ought to have found the one extra birdie he needed in order to make the weekend. Gallegos missed stacks of good chances and couldn't make four at the par-five closing hole, either.

This was a tournament headlined by Patrick Reed and Joaquin Niemann and he was far from disgraced, so together with his efforts on the HotelPlanner Tour we're looking at a player who should be growing in confidence all the time. And, given that he started from such a low base having struggled badly in spring, the market remains less convinced than I am of his ability to compete here.

Gallegos has a top-10 on the Korn Ferry Tour to his name and is edging towards his first at this level. I'll take him to skip that stage and contend.

Finally, the aforementioned Nolan was first to congratulate Franssen on Sunday and as a player whose good is very good but whose bad is very bad, he might appeal to those seeking another big-priced outsider. Nolan has six top-10s since the beginning of last year and at 34th in the Road to Mallorca, he sits between Easton and Wilson, who are 33/1 shots.

At 150/1 and having been fourth at Pleneuf this summer, if you're willing to excuse a miserable first try at this golf course last year then there's enough to like given that Nolan played solidly in Estonia. It's been a great time for young, improving players across all tours, and he is yet another who will be looking around and asking himself why he can't be the next cab off the rank.

Posted at 17:00 BST on 04/08/26

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