Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for final round of the RSM Classic
Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of the RSM Classic, where bang in-form Talor Gooch holds all the aces in pursuit of his PGA Tour breakthrough.
Golf betting tips: RSM Classic final round
2pts win Mackenzie Hughes in three-ball versus Luke List & Tom Hoge at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Webb Simpson to finish inside the top five at 15/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
RSM Classic nicely poised heading into final round
The RSM Classic has had a habit over the years of favouring players who were looking to land their first PGA Tour titles with six first-time winners triumphing here in the 11 years since the event first debuted, and it's another ‘maiden’ Talor Gooch who sits on the cusp of a breakthrough success heading in to today’s final round.
Gooch has been one of the hottest players on tour through the fall series, notching four top-11 finishes in his first four starts of the season and after a more low key performance in Houston last week he has bounced back in fine style at Sea Island to post 16-under through 54 holes and open up a three-shot lead over Seamus Power and Sebastian Munoz, who will both keep him company on Sunday.
With conditions on Thursday perfect for low scoring, Gooch’s opening round 8-under 64 on the Plantation Course did no more than keep him in touch with the pace setters, but once the anticipated tougher conditions rolled in on Friday the 30-year-old took the tournament by the scruff of the neck.
Born and bred in windy Oklahoma, Gooch has shown before on tour that he is more than comfortable in tough conditions and when you add this to the performance he has put in so far this week, I won't be the only person who has made a mental note of his potential to be a dark horse at a future Open Championship one day.
Before we jump ahead to any thoughts along those lines, though, the more pressing question is 'can Gooch close this out?'
What are the concerns over Gooch seeing it out?
With Rankings of fifth from tee to green, seventh in both approach play and putting, and first around the greens on the Sea Side course this week, it is hard to argue against him doing so. As I always say, though, Sunday is a whole different ball game and there are a couple slight concerns.
Firstly, we only need to go back a couple of weeks to when Gooch was right in the thick of things heading into Sunday in Mexico and on that occasion, playing in the final group with eventual champion Viktor Hovland, he limped to a closing 74, by far his worst effort that week.
Then we have the fact that he struggled off the tee yesterday, particularly early in the back nine when a succession of shots went left, and there is no doubt he caught a couple of fortunate breaks during that stretch.
Still, as is often said, to win any golf tournament you not only need to play well but you need a bit of luck and by the end of the round Gooch seemed to be back on track.
Furthermore, when the OSU man looks at the weather forecast for today he will be delighted to see that while the wind is not forecast to be quite as strong as the past two days consistent gusts of 20mph are predicted, meaning it will be tough for anyone to come at him with a really low number.
Power-packed finish?
Looking at his nearest challengers, Power and Munoz, more closely, if Gooch were to slip up marginal preference would be given to Power as the one most likely to take advantage.
Granted, both have been strong from tee to green on the Sea Side Course this week, however most of Munoz’ best work was done in the calm of Thursday when he posted the day one lead of 60 on the host course and he struggled on the greens yesterday, the Irishman conversely has dropped only one shot all week and looked really solid in the wind yesterday and having won only four months ago he should still be full of confidence.
Ultimately, though, my thoughts are that while it may not be straightforward, in an event, which has seen five of the last six 54 hole leaders triumph, Gooch will have learnt from his Mayakoba Sunday experience two weeks ago and, even though this is the first time he has held a 54-hole lead, go on to post the win that his recent play has clearly been trending towards.
So who are the best Sunday bets?
Not unsurprisingly, though, the layers agree and with odds on quotes across the board we will look elsewhere for an opportunity to boost our seasons coffers and firstly focus on the penultimate three ball of the day featuring Tom Hoge, Luke List and MACKENZIE HUGHES, with Hughes being the player who appeals.
The Canadian who is known as one of the best putters on tour has been uncharacteristically poor on the greens so far this week sitting 66th with the flat stick on the Sea Side course, conversely his approach play, normally his week link has been rock solid.
My thoughts then are that something has to give and if the former champion here can just get one or two to drop early on the putting floodgates might just open.
On the flipside of the coin List, who has proven over the years to be a man not to put too much faith in on Sundays, saw his normally cold putter warm up down the stretch yesterday and I wouldn’t want to rely on this happening again.
With List being a player I am more than happy to take on, Hoge who has performed solidly over the past two days looks the threat here. Ultimately though Hughes is the only one of the three who has won on tour and he has the far greater pedigree all round, something reflected in his far higher world ranking and I am happy to take him at the odds.
Finally, while he is probably too far back to mount a serious challenge for the trophy standing dish here WEBB SIMPSON makes plenty of appeal to post a top five finish.
The 38-year-old has done everything but win here over the years and after a sluggish Thursday he has improved every day this week with Saturday’s 66 seeing him gain over six shots from tee to green.
Starting the day in eighth place and one shot out of the top five, with his pedigree here you would expect him to improve his position, and I am more than happy to take the 15/8 available.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 21/11/21
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