Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Golf betting tips: Rocket Mortgage Classic final round
2pts win Cameron Young to win at 11/1 (General)
The first three editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic have seen bigger hitters flourish and it has been more of the same this week as two players who are recognised for their length off the tee, Taylor Pendrith and Tony Finau, share the 54-hole lead, while another of the longest, CAMERON YOUNG, sits behind them in third place.
Pendrith and Finau have both produced very similar performances this week whereby they have allied their big hitting, with some stellar approach play and a hot putter. Pendrith ranks second in approach play, third from tee to green and third in putting on the week, while Finau ranks first from tee to green, sixth in approach play and seventh in putting.
Starting Sunday on 21-under and four clear of Young, more of the same from the front pair today will see the event turn in to a two-horse race. As we know, though, Sundays are never quite as straightforward as that and it may well be we see some nerves from the final two-ball.
Looking firstly at Finau and as the way more experienced of the two, who after last week’s success in Minnesota now has three PGA Tour titles to his name, he is the obvious favourite to get the job done.
This Sunday does see the Utah native in a very different position to the one he was in last week where he started the day five back of Scott Piercy and with little expectation, before the door was opened for him courtesy of Piercy’s spectacular collapse.
This week, the expectancy is for him to win, but he is yet to close out when he has held the lead or a share of it through 54 holes, with a 0-5 conversion rate in this situation, and despite the fact he is undoubtedly in great form at the moment the pressure may tell.
I wrote in this column last Sunday about how well Finau had played from tee to green over the first three days only to putt terribly and that he would need his putter to get hot to have a chance. Well that was exactly what happened and he has ridden that hot putter into this week. Yesterday, though, he finished off by missing a six-foot putt for birdie to give himself the outright lead coming into today, and golf being the game it is, it may just be that sets the tone for the putter to go full circle in round four and cool off.
While I have my doubts about Finau, I am not convinced that this will be Pendrith’s day either.
The 31-year-old rookie has missed a large chunk of this season with a cracked rib and he has only returned this month after a four-month absence, posting a couple of solid top-15 finishes at the opposite field events.
Yet to win on the PGA Tour or the Korn Ferry Tour, the Canadian will have the spectre of the Bermuda Championship last autumn in his mind where, after posting a 65 on Saturday to give himself a three-shot lead heading into Sunday, he closed with a 76 to slip back in to fifth place.
Pendrith closed really strongly yesterday with four birdies in his final five so that should bring him into today in a great frame of mind, and we should note he does have some winning experience having posted two victories on the PGA Tour of Canada in 2019. This is a whole different ball game and my suspicion is it will go down as a learning experience for him.
Having expressed my doubts about the front two then it all leads me to the fact that I am going to take a chance on YOUNG reeling them in and land his first PGA Tour title.
Young has been a revelation in his rookie PGA Tour season, posting no fewer than six top-three finishes, so a win is certainly due.
The most recent of those big finishes came at St Andrews a fortnight ago where, while of course we were on a very different type of track, the circumstances were remarkably similar. On that occasion Young started four shots back in the penultimate group of a duo in McIlroy and Hovland, who were largely expected to race off into the sunset on a course yielding plenty of birdies.
As we know, what unfolded was very different and in the end it was that penultimate pairing that took the first two spots.
I'm sure Young will have the similarities of his position here compared with the Open very much in his head as he starts out on his final round.
Perhaps due to a slight Open hangover, Young started this week slowly but a 63 on Friday, which saw him tie the course record, vaulted him up the leaderboard and he backed this up on Saturday with a round of 65.
The 25-year-old has dropped only one shot over the past two days, gaining nearly ten shots from tee to green in that time, so he has clearly found a groove and, like the leading duo as one of the biggest hitters on tour, this course plays very much into his hands.
Young won twice on the Korn Ferry last year so we know he can get the job done and I am happy to risk him at the odds today to bag his first trophy in the big league.
With the leaderboard fairly stretched out it is an even bigger ask for those behind the front three to make an impact.
As a player who has failed to keep his card in previous years, Stephan Jaeger, who starts five back on 16-under and entered the week at 123rd in the Fedex, will surely be primarily focused on producing a solid day to wrap up his status for next season, while a further shot back Patrick Cantlay will need something really low which we know he is a capable of, and some help from those at the front.
While Cantlay is tempting, I will stick with just the one selection and trust that Young can deliver the win he has threatened on several occasions this season.
Posted at 0954 BST on 31/07/22
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