Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for final round of The Northern Trust
Martin Mathews has two bets in the outright market ahead of the final round of The Northern Trust – read his full preview here.
Golf betting tips: Northern Trust final round
2pts Justin Thomas to win the Northern Trust at 8/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Viktor Hovland to win the Northern Trust at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
With soft conditions continuing to offer up Liberty National for the taking, Saturday’s third round of the Northern Trust saw Cameron Smith miss a putt on 18 to shoot 59, and three other players – Shane Lowry, Erik Van Rooyen and Corey Conners – post rounds of 62.
However, the name on everyone’s lips come the close of play on Saturday wasn’t Cameron, or indeed that of Jon Rahm who shares the 54 whole lead with Smith on 16 under, but Henri, or to be precise, Hurricane Henri.
While of course the fate of a golf tournament is of small significance compared to the greater impact of a major storm, from a golfing point of view, with the storm due to hit the New Jersey area sometime on Sunday, a decision was made by the PGA Tour to abandon the idea of play on Sunday and for the final round to be played on Monday.
Assuming then that play is able to go ahead as intended, Rahm and Smith will start the final day one shot clear of Van Rooyen, with the pair of Justin Thomas and Tony Finau a further shot back on 14 under. A further shot behind on 13 under we then have the trio of Lowry, Viktor Hovland and Tom Hoge.
Rahm the man to beat
Smith’s superb effort gave him some daylight at the top of proceedings for the earlier part of Saturday. However, as the later starters progressed through their rounds it looked inevitable that Rahm would reel Smith in and open up a strong lead.
A double bogey seven from the Spaniard, courtesy of finding the water with his second on the par five 13th, and a further sloppy bogey on the driveable par four 16th, surrounded by two birdies, changed the complexion of things completely though and the tournament is now wide open.
Despite these blips Rahm is still of course the man to beat, with his long game regressing on Saturday though and a host of big names queuing up behind him I am in no rush to jump on board at the general 11/8.
Rahm has held the 54 hole lead or a share of it on three separate occasions on the PGA Tour, converting once, but for co leader Smith this is his first time in this position in the US and therefore, while he has been trending nicely of late, you have to think a combination of this factor, and the age old problem of following up Saturday’s heroics, will make it hard for him, and I am again happy to pass at the restrictive odds.
Of those chasing, Van Rooyen makes more appeal. He found the winning formula recently at the Barracuda Championship and having also recently become a father, he is walking on cloud nine both personally and professionally. Confidence as we know is a huge factor in any sport, particularly golf, and it may just be he can spring a shock and come in again.
Thomas too big to ignore
That said, this is a huge step up from anything he’s achieved before and if the groups do go out in three balls as I anticipate, if he is to pull this off he has to stare down the world number one and outscore him.
Instead then I shall go a further shot down the leaderboard to the penultimate group and while winning no awards for originality, side with JUSTIN THOMAS.
A 14 time winner on the PGA Tour, despite the quality at the top end of the leaderboard, Thomas has the same amount of PGA Tour wins as the remainder of those in the top ten heading into round four put together. Put simply, since landing his first tour win just under six years ago, the Players Champion has become a winning machine.
There is no doubt that Thomas has struggled since his win at Sawgrass in March with no top tens since that triumph, with his putter being the main problem of late. This week though he has holed his share, ranking 16th for the week with the flat stick and this combined with a continuation of the solid iron play we saw last time out in Memphis has led to him being back in the hunt.
Since the start of the 2017/18 season Thomas has posted 31 top ten finishes with seven of these being victories, showing that when he is seriously in the hunt he is a man you want on side. On that basis I am more than happy to take the 8/1.
Of those alongside Thomas or tucked in just behind, I am afraid I cannot contemplate backing Finau. I have no doubt the hugely-likeable American will win again in due course and this might be the occasion he does so. However, the jittery signs with the putter were showing themselves again on Saturday and until he does get over the line again he will not be for me on a Sunday.
Hovland set for final flourish
With Hoge surely out of his depth here, that leaves us with VIKTOR HOVLAND and Lowry and while the latter is tempting, it is the all round performance of the Norwegian this week that catches the eye and who I shall play alongside Thomas.
Whereas most of those near the top of affairs this week have built their score around one low round, Hovland has been consistent, improving every day with efforts of 68, 67 and 65.
Fourth in accuracy off the tee this week, he will hopefully be able to keep himself out of what you would think will be trickier, wet rough when the players get back out there, and if he can bring his strong Iron play from Saturday back to the course it could well be that he can produce a really low one on a track which has ultimately rewarded the best drivers when it has previously been seen on tour.
Posted at 2115 BST on 22/08/21
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