Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational final round
2pts win Billy Horschel in Arnold Palmer Invitational at 11/4 (General)
1pt e.w. Chris Kirk in Arnold Palmer Invitational at 40/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Coral 1/5 1,2,3)
When Viktor Hovland followed an eagle on the sixth on Saturday with a birdie at eight to open up a four-shot lead it looked like we might be heading for another week where one player would head into Sunday on the PGA Tour with a dominant lead having taken an event by the scruff of the neck.
What we reckoned without though was the challenge we have come to know over the recent years that Bay Hill offers over the weekend, and two hours later, after Hovland had come home in 40, this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational had been blown wide open.
With the players battling thick rough, slick greens and challenging breezes, Hovland was by no means the only one of the leading contenders to struggle on Saturday and come the end of the day the two who had handled the test the best were BILLY HORSCHEL and Talor Gooch, who share the lead heading into Sunday on a 7-under total.
Horschel’s presence at the top of the leaderboard will not surprise many as over recent weeks he has started to put together one of his trademark runs of high finishes, which more often than not culminates with a win, and if he does go on today to post the victory no one will be able to say that they hadn’t seen it coming.
This week so far the former Fedex Cup Champion has managed to put all the pieces of his game together ranking sixth from tee to green, and seventh in both approach play and putting, and he handled the tough conditions as well as any of the later starters on Saturday on his way to a solid 71.
Today will mark the first time Horschel has held the 54-hole lead or co-lead on the PGA Tour since the Tour Championship in 2014, and of course we all know what happened then. Let's also not forget that the 35-year-old has landed two big titles over the past 12 months at the WGC Matchplay and then over in Europe at Wentworth. With his game firing on all cylinders I am happy to side with the Florida Gator to post what would be a huge win for him in his home state.
In contrast to the seven-plus years it has been since Horschel headed into Sunday on the PGA Tour with the lead, Gooch, who will start alongside him, was in this position only four months ago at the RSM Classic where he went on to land his first tour win.
Since then the Oklahoman has cooled off somewhat but this week he has bounced back from a missed cut last time out at Riviera, on a test which suits his all round strong game.
Gooch leads the field from tee to green this week predominantly due to a superb ball striking day on Friday. However, his approach play slipped back on Saturday and while I don’t expect him to ‘go away’ on Sunday, this is enough for me to give Horschel the edge.
With the first 11 players on the leaderboard covered by just five shots, this is of course anything but a two-horse race and the big-name pair of Hovland and Scottie Scheffler who start one and two behind respectively will fancy their chances.
The duo find themselves in the penultimate group through hugely contrasting fortunes and Hovland, who shot 77 78 here at the weekend last year when right in the hunt, looked all at sea on the greens yesterday. It is hard to fancy him to bounce back today.
Scheffler, meanwhile, along with CHRIS KIRK shot the low round of the day yesterday, 68, to vault himself up the leaderboard and having recently bagged his first tour title in Phoenix it is not a huge stretch to see him going in again.
With my preference, though, being for Horschel I am not going to take another short-priced play at the top of the market and instead - with three each-way places on offer - will roll the dice at bigger odds a couple of shots further down the leaderboard.
We only need to go back to 2019 for an example (Francesco Molinari) of a player coming from off the pace on Sunday to pinch the trophy, with the Italian starting five back and while conditions were very different that year, if the front two were to struggle we could easily see a winning score of 6 or even 5-under, and if this were the case it very much opens the door for those starting on 4 or 3-under.
Looking at the contenders on these numbers the fit-again Gary Woodland makes more appeal to me than Rory McIlroy with the latter showing again his weekend frailties and his Northern Irish counterpart, Graeme McDowell, who he plays alongside today, was also tempting at the odds as a player we know can grind in the toughest of conditions.
In the end, though, with McDowell struggling to find fairways on Saturday the one that appeals most at juicy odds is Kirk who starts on 3-under.
Kirk, whose challenge had seemingly been derailed on Friday when he posted 76, bounced back in fine style on Saturday with the putter, which let him down on day two, behaving again.
Kirk arrived here this week after some strong recent play and ranks second in accuracy off the tee this week. If he can keep that up on Sunday, while others are battling from the rough, and hole his share of putts he could easily post 5-under or thereabouts in the clubhouse, and watch others struggle to match it.
The 36-year-old has shown a liking for Bay Hill over recent years, posting an eighth place finish here 12 months ago, and with many of the recent winners here having good previous history, this certainly catches the eye. I am happy to wrap things up by chancing him at big prices.
Posted at 0925 GMT on 06/03/22
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