Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for final round of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands

Golf betting tips: The Travelers Championship final round

2pts win Patrick Cantlay at 8/1 (General)

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Keegan Bradley has been on fire through 54 holes of the Travelers Championship and when he signed his card for a third round 64, to add to earlier scores for the week of 62-63, he’d compiled a total of 21-under 189 – just one blow shy of the PGA Tour’s record low tally at this stage of an event.

Utilising superb iron play (he ranks first for Strokes Gained Approach with a figure of 6.624) and a hot putter (third for SG Putting on 6.448) he’s pulled one shot clear of the 2019 champion of the event Chez Reavie (64-63-63). There’s a gap of four shots to PATRICK CANTLAY, who carded a Saturday 61, in solo third, with Rickie Fowler (third round 60), Adam Scott (65) and Denny McCarthy (70) sharing fourth.

Despite nearly equalling that record, Bradley insisted: “It was pretty boring honestly until the very end there.” But he also then rhapsodised about what the tournament means to him. “This was the first PGA Tour event I ever went to,” he said. “I came here and watched David Duval play. I remember looking at his tee time and making sure I got here when he warmed up. The range was right over here and it was my first real taste of what the tour was like. When I got my card in 2010, the first thought in my mind wasn’t to play the majors, or whatever, it was I get to come play Hartford. It’s always pretty special to be able to come back here and compete in this tournament.”

He then added a note of caution: “I’ve wanted to win this tournament forever, so the feeling of wanting to push and win is something I need to fight against and just let myself go out and play.” He also admitted: “I’m sort of an anxious person, so I know I’m going to be fighting a lot of thoughts. Winning this tournament with my family here, what an incredible thing that would be. I’m going to have to do my best to really stay where I’m at.”

Against those fears are that deadly putting (“just every time I’m standing over a putt I feel like I have a chance to make it, which is a great feeling”) and the knowledge that he’s been playing well for a long time and is a winner this season (at the Zozo Championship). “This week is about as good as I’ve ever played,” he said. “But I’ve been playing great all year.”

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He’s a five-time winner on the circuit but his record with a 54-hole lead is 0-for-4, finishing second every time and never breaking 70. He might also be experiencing a little deja vu because his best effort yet at River Highlands was second in 2019 when he trailed only Reavie, his nearest challenger this week. He has a great chance of fulfilling his childhood dream and is priced 5/6.

Reavie is sanguine about having the fans cheering for his final round playing partner. “I would expect them to root for the home town guy,” he said. “They did it in 2019.” He’s also aware that, four years on, the situation is different. “I had a big lead (six shots after three rounds) and then Keegan made a bunch of birdies to make it really close. Tomorrow is going to be the opposite. It’s going to be a shootout. I’m not going to be able to go out there and just make some pars and hang in there.”

Two of his three PGA Tour wins have come thanks to significant 54-hole advantages while in the first he shared the pre-final round lead and a final round 70 forced a play-off he won. While Bradley is 0-for-4 at converting leads, Reavie, who is priced 11/4, is 0-for-4 at turning second at this stage in a win.

It’s also not unknown for pace setters at River Highlands to suddenly find the going tough on Sunday. Last year Cantlay was one back of the lead and carded a 76. A year earlier Bubba Watson shared the lead, shot 73 and finished T19th. Brendon Todd’s 75 in 2020 turned a two shot lead into T11th. Paul Casey led by four in 2018 but a 72 saw him finish second. Daniel Berger was three clear in 2016 but a 74 left him three back after 72 holes. Justin Rose was also three ahead in 2010 and finished ninth after a 75.

If they were reeled in, who might do it? McCarthy was quick out the blocks with a 60 on Thursday before adding 70 on Saturday. Can he recalibrate in time? He’s 50/1. Scott has three top 10s in his last five starts and is 40/1.

The romantic choice would be 33/1 Fowler, who led the US Open for so long last week and bounced into the running with a Saturday 60. “I would say I was excited,” he said afterwards. “Obviously bummed, but I really just didn’t have it (last) Sunday. I’m going to need another really good round of golf to give myself a legit shot.”

Then there is Cantlay who carded a 60 on the course as an amateur in 2011, has recorded five consecutive top 15 finishes there (“this is a golf course that suits my eye, I’ve played well here, every time I come here I enjoy it”), but who added that messy 76 when one back of the 54-hole lead a year ago. Counter-intuitively, I like that memory – the best golfers use them as motivation.

He won his first and second PGA Tour titles from four back and he knows the flow of the course. “If you can get the front nine you can shoot a real low one,” he said yesterday. Those early holes could also trip up the leaders and build pressure. He also added that he played the front nine in 4-under in round three and then pressed the accelerator after the turn. He’ll need to do so again and is the pick at 8/1.

Posted at 0940 BST on 25/06/23

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