Matt Cooper looks ahead to the final round of the Hero World Challenge and has a couple of reliable-looking two-ball selections.
Golf betting tips: Hero World Challenge final round
2pts double Wyndham Clark and Akshay Bhatia to win their two balls at 7/2 (bet365)
When Scottie Scheffler enters a tournament, trying to win it without having to deal with the World No. 1’s presence is as difficult as attempting to depart a Home Bargains shop with no purchase. Because there’s no clear and obvious exit strategy. Like the tills and the queues, Scheffler looms large. In theory, there is a gap – for the doors or to the trophy – but in practice?
The latest man to take on the challenge is Austria’s Sepp Straka who leads the Hero World Challenge at Albany in the Bahamas on 17-under 199, one stroke clear of Scheffler with Alex Noren and Hideki Matsuyama sharing third on 14-under, and Wyndham Clark and JJ Spaun tied for fifth on 13-under.
Straka, of course, has had a disrupted second half of the year following the birth of his second child, Thomas, who needed an extended stay in hospital. Thankfully he is now home with his mum, dad and brother, which has allowed Straka to resume his game and you sense he is a little surprised to find himself with the chance to win, admitting that he’s fiddling with his swing and chasing his driver a little.
This week is far from the first time he has impressed at Albany, however. He was the joint first round leader on debut in 2022 when eventually T10, the runner up in 2023, and then T9 last year. He is also a two-time winner this year and both were low scoring affairs until the final round. This week has so far followed that route and the breeze is forecast to rise to 15mph which might (might) temper the really low scores.
It’s his fourth PGA Tour 54-hole lead and all four have come this year: he was four shots clear and won at the American Express, one blow ahead when ultimately seventh in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, and sharing the lead ahead of winning the Truist Championship. He’s best price 9/4.
Scheffler, of course, is the favourite at 5/6 and there is plenty of good reasons why. His course form? He himself said, “I’ve had some success here,” which is understated given he was the runner-up in 2021 and 2022, and the winner in 2023 and 2024. He actually didn’t break the top 10 until the end of the third round of his first start but since then has never left it through 17 rounds (and 13 times he was tied third or better).
Then there is that small matter of him being a difficult obstacle for opponents. He’s recorded 42 top 10s in his last 50 starts. 26 of them were top three finishes and 15 of those wins.
Scheffler has been first or second after 54 holes on 29 occasions in his career and, after winning just once in the first 10 instances, he has claimed 14 of the last 19 (and eight of the last nine). From second alone he is only 3-for-10 but the three have come in the last four tries.
Noren is quite chipper, saying: “Anything can happen and that’s what I’m looking for. You don’t often have the chance to chase. It would be amazing to be in the hunt tomorrow afternoon.” He thrashed a final round 63 to win the 2016 Nedbank Challenge, turning a six shot deficit into a six shot victory margin. And in 2017 a Sunday 62 saw him win the BMW PGA Championship from seven strokes off the lead. He’s also a two-time winner this year and is best price 16/1.
Matsuyama was the 2016 winner of this event. He opened 2025 with victory in The Sentry in Hawaii yet didn’t make another top 10 all year until he was T7 in the Genesis Championship and T5 in the Dunlop Phoenix in his last two starts. He’s priced 14/1.
Ultimately the prices in the outright look about right so we’ll close the year with a two ball double and kick off with WYNDHAM CLARK up against JJ Spaun in the battle of the recent unlikely US Open winners. Clark has had a fraught year, squabbling with a locker in the Oakmont clubhouse to earn himself a ban from the club, and he has also had a dig at the conditioning of the course this week. But he does seem to like playing by the sea. He lost a play-off in nearby Bermuda, has three top 20s at Renaissance in Scotland and was fourth in the Open at Royal Portrush earlier this year. We can get 6/4 on Clark and that kicks us off nicely.
We’ll add AKSHAY BHATIA at 4/5 up against Billy Horschel.
Bhatia was fourth on his Albany debut last year and has finished first, fourth and seventh in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s also been second in Puerto Rico and fourth in Mexico on courses similar to this week. His third round 74 was quite a stumble from his past experiences on the course but he can rebound in style. The double pays 7/2.
Posted at 10:00 GMT on 07/12/25
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