Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the BMW PGA Championship

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship

1pt e.w Bernd Wiesberger at 14/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4)

0.5pt e.w Nicolai Hojgaard at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4)

0.5pt e.w Aaron Rai at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The European Tour doesn't get much better than this late-summer period with Crans and Italy just gone and the Netherlands, Dunhill Links, Valderrama, Portugal and Dubai to come. Oh, and the small matter of the Ryder Cup in between.

Placed beautifully in the schedule is this week's flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, and while conditions haven't been as testing as some of us had hoped, it is living up to its reputation as a true test of the very best.

Wentworth demands not just quality iron play but also a sharp short-game, with two of the last three winners leading the scrambling stats. There is no room for slackness and even those in great form can lose their position quickly, as we saw on Saturday with pre-event favourite Viktor Hovland's four bogeys in the opening five holes and Henrik Stenson's opening nine.

And while the back-to-back par-fives which bring things to a crescendo mean that a score can often be rescued, and that late fireworks are often a feature, it's the rank-and-file par-fours which hold the key to victory. Since 2016, every winner has been inside the top two in par-four performance and it's very difficult to win here simply by taking apart the so-called scoring holes.

Francesco Laporta found himself three shots clear after an eagle at the fourth hole as the leaderboard took shape during round three, and the Italian was perhaps a little unfortunate to see that advantage narrowed to just one by the end of the day.

He bounced back to form with an always-handy fourth place finish last week in Italy and has looked extremely solid thus far at the sort of tree-lined course which seems to suit. The 30-year-old (a golfer's supposed 'peak' age) has been finding good positions on the fairways all week and the way he's played the demanding first hole is a reflection of the control he's shown throughout.

The Italian's two Challenge Tour victories were from the front and he has a record of being strong on Sundays, losing no ground at the Irish Open this year, and closing in at both Dubai and his home event. This is a tournament that tends to go to someone with a higher class form in the book, but who is to say that isn't very close in his future?

Still, given the magnitude of the occasion and the event, and the quality of the pack, Laporta could be vulnerable and makes little appear. That said he is still preferred to the likes of Laurie Canter and Sean Crocker, who both have top-class iron games but have failed to get over the line in 16 events between them when starting in contention on Sunday, both hamstrung by what they do on and around the greens.

The latter had his best chance to win on the Tour when runner-up to Matt Cooper's pre-event headline pick for the week, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, at Leopard Creek and his wild drive on the final hole still lingers in the memory, while Canter should really have won last year's Italian Open on a prefect course for him, and understandably went backwards from the lead at the closing DP World Championship. With this event equal in status for home players, he is overlooked at single figures as he too seeks a first European Tour win.

It's this lack of winning form at the top of the leaderboard which suggests another off-the-pace winner will arrive on Sunday evening and from three behind, BERND WIESBERGER might be able to seal Ryder Cup qualification in style.

• CLICK HERE to back Wiesberger with Sky Bet

Shane Lowry is seeking to do the same thing and is respected, but this will be his sixth chance to win here and despite the fact he's a major champion, he is not quite as prolific as the Austrian has been in recent years.

I like the fact that Wiesberger brings Crans form to the table, an event he should have won and one which likens him to previous winners Danny Willett, Alex Noren and Matteo Manassero. That disappointment threatened to stop him and so did the fact he was three-over through six in round one, but since then he's been outstanding and nobody in this field has stronger ball-striking statistics for the three rounds so far.

Hopefully he can avoid his customary opening bogey and make these chances pay in the most important round of his career. Yes, the Ryder Cup could be a distraction, but so complicated are the permutations that both he and Lowry must focus on winning the event above all else. At the prices, Wiesberger is the preferred choice.

Adam Scott and Billy Horschel bring high-class form to the table but Scott missed a short putt to win on the PGA Tour a couple of starts ago and can't be trusted on the greens, while Horschel is without a stroke play title in an age and also looks short enough given the class of the Europeans who are just behind.

Off the pace doesn't mean out of the equation here with Chris Wood and notably Alex Noren coming from outside the top four when winning in 2016 and 2017. With that in mind, it could also pay to ride the confidence and go with NICOLAI HOJGAARD and AARON RAI to back up the main wager.

• CLICK HERE to back Hojgaard with Sky Bet

The most recent winner of the Danish twins, Nicolai came here off the back of a grinding victory in Italy last week and it would have been easy to let this course get the better of him, especially on his debut. However, with a solid 69 following opening rounds of 70 and 67, he again ranks in the top ten in tee-to-green (first and second last two weeks), his power showing on the par-fives with 11 birdies from 12 chances.

Sure, power alone won't win around here but his closing seventh in Austria and defeat of some genuine 'iron' merchants last week shows there is more there and I'd be confident he's not just a bomber. Seventh for greens on Friday, he won't have to improve much on his rankings either side of that (25th and 34th) and while he has only had a handful of Sundays in contention he did split Sergio Garcia and Matt Wallace at the KLM Open in 2019, another course that calls for a touch of guile.

He's four off the lead but there has to be a good chance the final two-ball stays still and a target around the score Laporta is on now is well within Hojgaard's reach. At 50/1 and with four places on offer, he looks a sporting wager to keep extend the run of Hojgaard wins to three.

Rai close enough to mount late challenge

Like Christiaan Bezuidenhout, another who is there with a chance, Rai gained his PGA Tour card last week and, like our current leader, has form on tree-lined courses in Kenya at a lower level.

• CLICK HERE to back Rai with Sky Bet

However, he can also boast a better standard of figures at the likes of Hong Kong (beating Matt Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez) and at the Scottish Open where he bested Tommy Fleetwood. Reminiscent of the likes of Manassero and Luke Donald, who boast three Wentworth victories between them, the 26-year-old has continued his high-class iron play, following a trio of Korn Ferry Tour top-15s with this week's effort.

Unlike Hojgaard, Rai won't overpower a track but can still boast a score of eight-under for the par-fives this week, including an eagle and two birdies at the fourth hole. The Wolverhampton warrior can begin his move an hour before the leaders tee off, and his ability to grind through those tough holes which bookend the front-nine could count for plenty on a fascinating, pressure-packed Sunday which he begins five adrift, but not without hope.

Posted at 1910 BST on 11/09/21

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