Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the BMW Championship
Martin Mathews previews the final round of the BMW Championship and he's got two selections in the Sunday two-balls including Sergio Garcia.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship final round
2pts Cameron Davis to beat Scottie Scheffler in 2-ball at 6/4 (Bet365, Betway)
2pts Sergio Garcia to beat Jon Rahm in 2-ball at 7/4 (Bet365, Betway)
From the start of the second round right through to 11 holes through the third round, it looked like there was only one winner of this week's BMW Championship as Bryson Dechambeau beat the Caves Valley course into submission, playing those combined 29 holes in an incredible 19-under par to open up a four-shot lead on the field.
Golf being the game it is the wheels suddenly came off Dechambeau’s juggernaut and he followed bogey, after finding the water with his approach on 12, with a double bogey after finding another watery grave on the par three 13th.
With his nearest challenger Patrick Cantlay making back to back birdies on the same two holes the end result was a remarkable five-shot swing through this passage of play and after the pair traded blows over the final five holes a scintillating day three ended with the two Americans tied for the lead on 21- under.
If Dechambeau does fail to lift the trophy it will be easy to pinpoint the 12th and 13th holes on Saturday as the turning point and with the remainder of his back nine on Saturday also looking edgy there are some clear echoes of Jon Rahm’s sudden stumble last Saturday on the back nine at the Northern Trust, which was a prelude to a lacklustre Sunday.
Dechambeau, who pointed to his driver as the area which he needed to work on after the round, is of course a law unto himself and predicting what he will do today is not easy.
Not surprisingly he leads the field from tee to green this week and also sits third in putting, so if he does iron out his concerns with the driver overnight on a course that is legitimately a ‘par 68’ to him, he will be tough to beat. Equally though we have seen enough of the former US Open Champion over recent years to know that when it starts to go wrong it can go badly wrong; Sunday at Torrey Pines at this year's US Open being a fine example, and with a steady hand like Cantlay right on his shoulder I am in no rush to jump on board now at 11/8.
Moving on to Cantlay and having started the week by relying almost exclusively on a hot putter, which gained him an incredible 11 strokes on the greens over the first two days, the American’s approach play has come to the party over the past couple of days and it was actually the putter which held him back slightly on Saturday.
Despite a bogey on his final hole Cantlay looked solid all day and did a great job of staying patient and in his own zone, even with all the hoopla of Dechambeau’s round going on around him and the distraction of a very boisterous crowd to say the least.
His most recent victory came in June at the Memorial after he was presented with a share of the 54-hole lead following Jon Rahm’s Covid-related withdrawal and he showed on that occasion that he was able to get his head down and focus on business on Sunday despite the bizarre circumstances and I similarly I expect him to remain strong today.
Looking further down the leaderboard and the nearest challenger to this pair is Sungjae Im who sits three shots back on 18-under while four players; Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer, Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia, are tied a further shot back on 17-under.
On a course which has yielded low numbers galore this week it would be foolish to rule out any of this quintet making a big charge, however, unless the front two really drag each other down, it is hard to see at least one of them failing to post 68 at worst on this track, which then means those behind are needing to shoot 64 or just to make a playoff.
To sum up then if I was forced to take one in the outright market today it would be Cantlay, however with no really strong feeling I am more than happy to leave this market alone.
Instead I will turn to todays two-balls for a bet where I do feel there is some value to be had, starting with the pairing that tee off at 11.49am local-time - CAMERON DAVIS and Scottie Scheffler - and it is Davis who appeals to me here.
After a slow start to the week the Aussie has found his stride over the past couple of days and with Saturday being his best day of the week so far off the tee he should feel good heading into Sunday. One of the longest hitters out there, this track is tailor-made for Davis and if he can produce a low one today he still has a chance of pushing into the top 30 and making East Lake.
Scheffler conversely has struggled with his driver this week, finding only three fairways on Thursday and five on Saturday, and with the course starting to dry out if he can’t rectify this on Sunday it may prove more of a penalty for his approach play. With the pressure of trying to bag a Ryder Cup wild card pick perhaps weighing on him Scheffler struggled on Sunday at the recent WGC and seemed to carry that through to a lacklustre effort at the Northern Trust, so I am happy to take him on today.
Finally I can’t resist chancing SERGIO GARCIA when he tees off against Jon Rahm in the battle of the Spaniards at 1.22pm local time.
Garcia is in a battle to make the top 30 in the Fedex Cup and head on to East Lake and his strong play this week has seen him push his way up 17 places to currently sit in 27th. The key to his success so far this week has been a really solid long game, which has him ranked third from tee to green and with his putter cooperating as well there is no reason to think he can't finish the job off.
Rahm on the other hand struggled on Saturday with his approach play going AWOL and it could be that trying to win the Fedex Cup for the first time is getting to him. Rahm of course is not world number one for nothing and could easily make a mockery of these thoughts today, however he cut a really frustrated figure on Saturday and I am happy to risk Garcia at decent odds.
Posted at 1020 BST on 29/08/21
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