Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship final round
3pts win Sam Burns to win Sanderson Farms Championship at 100/30 (Unibet)
1pt e.w. Aaron Wise to win Sanderson Farms Championship at 20/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4)
With the exception of last year's tournament, which took place after no rookies were promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour because of the impact of Covid-19, the Sanderson Farms Championship has earnt a reputation over recent years as an event which has been kind to the new kids on the block, and this year has been no exception.
Heading into today’s final round there are no fewer than six players who have come straight off the Korn Ferry Tour in the top ten and within four shots off the lead, and four of these including 54-hole leader Sahith Theegala are making just their second start in their first season as full PGA Tour members.
Theegala, who sits on 18-under par through 54 holes and one shot clear of the field, is undoubtedly a huge talent, who having won his card courtesy of two top-six finishes in his last two starts in the Korn Ferry finals was on many people's radar as ‘one to watch’ as the new season began.
To see him in this position then, even so early in his first full season on the tour, is not a complete surprise, and having backed him in his first start two weeks ago at triple-figure odds, a victory for the 23-year-old old would certainly leave a wry smile on my face.
Theegala has been strong throughout the bag this week and having made only one bogey so far he should be feeling good about his game and his chances going in to Sunday.
Anyone who watched his back nine on Saturday, though, will have noticed that he started to look decidedly edgy down the stretch, particularly off the tee, and it is to his credit that he managed to get it to the house without dropping any shots.
Add that to the fact that this is unchartered waters for him and the low scoring opportunities this course offers to those in the chasing pack, and I am more than happy to pass today at the general 4/1.
Four players will start the day in a tie for second place on 17-under and one shot off the lead - Cameron Tringale, Cameron Young, Denny McCarthy and SAM BURNS, and while I will get no prizes for originality it is the latter, Burns, who I will make my main play heading into today.
After bagging his maiden win at the Valspar in May, Burns made it all the way to the Tour Championship and there were many who felt he was unlucky not to get a pick for the Ryder Cup. Undeterred, the 25-year-old old has come out for the new season firing on all cylinders and after a strong performance at the Fortinet he is ideally placed to bag his second Tour title.
Burns has had the ball on a string from tee to green this week, ranking first in that department, first off the tee and first in approach play, and were it not for a balky putter, which saw him lose over two shots to the field on the greens on Friday and has him ranked 59th in this department through the first three days, he could quite easily have been out of sight by now.
On Saturday saw the flat stick warm up ever so slightly, though, and if he can continue to stripe it from tee to green in the way he has, he will surely be tough to beat.
Burns is the only one of those in the top seven and within two of the lead who has winning experience on the PGA Tour, and I expect him to make that count. The odds look very fair.
Of those sharing second place with Burns heading into Sunday, as I regularly seem to find myself writing in these previews, a maiden win for the likeable Tringale would be great to see, but it is impossible to back him in this situation.
Preference then would certainly be for the duo of McCarthy and Young at the odds, with Young, a player who won in back-to-back weeks on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this year, marginally making more appeal. Having backed one player at shortish odds, though, I am reluctant to add a second at single figures, and I will therefore pass on Young.
With the duo of Trey Mullinax and Seth Reeves, who both start on 16-under, having the time honoured problem of having to follow up Saturday’s low rounds of 64 and 63 respectively, I will head to the group who start on 15-under and three back for a second play, and focus my attention on AARON WISE.
A one-time winner on tour to date after a period in the wilderness, Wise has undoubtedly been on the comeback trail through 2021 and since May he has played the weekend on nine out of ten occasions, posting four top-20 finishes on the way.
The former Byron Nelson Champion ranks second so far this week from tee to green and also first around the greens, and he undoubtedly has the aggressive mindset required to produce the low round needed today.
Granted, the tournament has seen the last four 54-hole leaders get the job done, but two of those had leads of four and five shots so this is perhaps a fraction misleading.
Wise ever so nearly bagged his second tour title in last year’s Fall series from off the pace at the Mayakoba after posting a final-round 63, so he should not be too daunted by today's task of starting three behind.
With another dozen players starting either four or five shots back there will be plenty more who will fancy their chances of emulating Will Zalatoris’ Friday 61 or Tringale’s Saturday 62 to post a number. However, with plenty of players ahead of them to pass they will also be relying on none of those to go really low, which on a course producing plenty of low numbers this week, may well not be the case.
So it’s two for me, Burns and Wise, to get the job done between them for us on a day which looks sure to produce a fascinating final-round shootout.
Published at 1000 BST on 03/10/21
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
