Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of Italian Open
Jason Daniels previews the final round of the Italian Open and has two bets at 22/1 and 16/1.
Golf betting tips: Italian Open final round
1pt e.w Edourdo Molinari without the 'big three' at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w Victor Perez at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Golf fans on both sides of the Atlantic will be delighted to see a return to form for Tommy Fleetwood, now just a shot shy of the lead in Rome.
Not only does this give him yet another chance to grab his first victory since 2019 but with just three weeks to go until the Ryder Cup, this winner of four from five at Le Golf National in 2018 coming back to his best is surely a boost not only for the European team but the event as a whole.
Nevertheless, we are talking about this Sunday here and while he clearly has to be favourite, there is plenty of evidence to suggest he can be taken on at a best price of 2/1.
Given the Marco Simone course has been completely redesigned for the Ryder Cup (and probably biased towards European-style play), approaches/iron play (whichever you prefer) is a requisite asset, as evidenced by Nicolai Hojgaard's rise up the board with a third-round ranking of sixth in that respect.
Fleetwood currently ranks 30th in strokes-gained-approach, tending to rely on a previously suspect short game as he did on Saturday at his eighth and tenth holes, crucially saving par when bogey would have left him shy of contention.
There is always a decent comparison between the French and Italian Opens and, rather like the Paris track, finding greens is crucial to making a score here, something Fleetwood again is falling slightly short of, ranking 22nd.
Take away how good it would be to see him win and instead examine his chances of victory over the past decade.
Looking at times he has started the final round inside the top four, Fleetwood has had 39 chances, converting just four times and averaging a finish outside the top five.
A closer look sees him have four genuine chances since 2020, including leading overnight at the Honda Classic and down the stretch at Gullane, failing to win either to add to more recent efforts at Wentworth and Abu Dhabi, when he lost ground on the winner by the signing of the cheques, mostly by being let down by the very facet that kept him in this tournament on Sunday.
"I'm excited to go into a Sunday in contention and see where my game's at really. It'll be a nice time to come into form so I'll keep trying."
Please do, Tommy, we all love you, but there is a job to do.
The aforementioned Nicolai Hojgaard must surely be a bit fed up at being compared with his twin, Rasmus, who won his third European Tour event last week but he certainly isn't showing it.
Improving his approach stats overnight from a ranking of 100 to sixth on Saturday certainly helped but that only sets him at the level he has shown with rankings inside the top-20 in six of his last ten completed starts, and he looks to be trending towards his best finish of the season with a couple of top-20 finishes and a 21st in his last three completed events.
He stated that his brother acts an inspiration (rather than an inhibition) but 3/1 looks terribly short with eight players within four shots and a further three just a shot further behind, a list that contains proven winners.
This is the European Tour and with the last three winners having come from off the lead, there has to be the chance of another, especially if conditions get tougher as the day goes on.
Daniel Van Tonder, winner in Kenya, is playing great golf this week, his last 36 holes interrupted by just two bogeys including a painful one on the 18th in the third round. 9/2 looks about right over him.
At around 1/8 coupled, the advice is to lay Fleetwood, Hojgaard, Van Tonder and Mikko Korhonen, another not to have won since 2019.
We've only had three days here but it looks like a grinder's track and there looks to be no player immune to similar rounds to that of Min Woo Lee and Johannes Verrman, who just failed to live up to their previous iron play and paid a price.
The former, a brilliant winner of the Scottish Open, saw his overnight lead go quickly with a couple of early bogeys and, while chasing, recorded just level-par for his final ten holes. The American winner of the Czech Masters saw hopes fade in two holes - a quadruple bogey at 14 dropping him off the lead, the bogey on 17 just adding insult to injury. This isn't a birdie-fest and every shot needs commitment - as with most events held in Italy, one slip can be costly.
Saying all that, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Lee challenging again on Sunday. He will be better away from the lead, already has a high-class trophy in his cabinet and crucially improved his score from the third to fourth rounds at all of his last four events - the Irish and Scottish Opens, the St.Jude Invitational and last week in Switzerland. There he overcame a poor third round to finish just outside the top-20 from 41st.
For the fixed odds, two small wagers on the two leading iron players of the week - EDOARDO MOLINIARY and VICTOR PEREZ are the recommendation. .
'Tee to green, I think this is the best I've played in my career'
To be fair. Dodo has been playing excellent golf for a while, ranking top-15 in approach play in half his last 20 completed starts, just let down by some average putting on courses that require a low score.
Inspired by being back home, he ranks ninth, fifth and 17th through the first three rounds for iron play, and fourth, third and 12th for tee-to-green. Typically the short stick is costing him but his second round effort (ranked 142nd) is an outlier, sandwiched between efforts that list him at a perfectly acceptable 26th and 55th.
It's been a while since grinding victories at Gleneagles and Loch Lomond (where two-time Italian Open winner Eduardo Romero proved victorious) but it looks likely this will be a similar test and I'll take the chance that he is ready to deliver again.
66/1 outright appeals but Sky Bet offer 16/1 without the trio of Fleetwood, Hojgaard and Van Tonder and having tied runner-up at the tough European Open, that makes plenty of appeal.
Perez is in the mix for Ryder Cup selection so this is a timely reminder of his considerable talent.
The 29-year-old Frenchman, approaching his peak, might well have won the Dunhill Links in 2019 but, for me, his best overall effort was the runner-up to Tyrrell Hatton at Wentworth in 2020 and it's another golfing coincidence that he is approaching top form at the same time of the year.
Perhaps messing about between the two main tours has had an effect on his quality iron play but he has played better than his finishes, ranking top-20 for greens-found in Kent and Switzerland.
The Alps Tour winner looks back to his best this week, leading the approach stats in Saturday's third round 67, improving his tee-to-green from 60th, 25th to 13th and for good measure, doing the same with the putter, moving forward from 39th and 20th to eighth.
Biorhythms? Ryder Cup? Whatever. Perez struck the ball beautifully at that BMW and looks sure to ruin his price for next week's renewal. There isn't a lot more to say about a fine ball-striker at a ball-striker's track - other than get on before it's too late.
Posted at 2115 BST on 04/09/21
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