Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at El Cardonal.
Golf betting tips: WWT Championship round four
1pt e.w. Ryan Gerard at 13/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet 1/3 1,2)
1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 20/1 (General 1/3 1,2)
It was pointed out to Ben James in his Friday press conference that he’d just shot his 14th round of 65 or better of the season. That’s a season featuring just 13 starts. He didn’t add to that on Saturday but went mighty close, a six-under 66 pulling the 23-year-old four shots clear as he closes in on a first PGA Tour win.
Those who got the very early 22s on this rising star are in great position now as James is 4/11 to complete the job which has been coming for the last few months even though he only turned pro in June. Victory would likely propel him into the world’s top 50 and all the bonuses that brings.
When four clear after 54 holes, there must be a feeling that everything is going your way. But if there’s one thing James wouldn’t have wanted in this near-perfect scenario it’s that his nearest chaser is the highest ranked player in the field. That would be World No.23 RYAN GERARD, whose 7-under 65 on Moving Day was only bettered by Michael Kim’s 63.
Gerard putted abysmally in round two so switched putters to a blade in round three and it worked a treat. After ranking 115th on Friday, he was 8th for SG: Putting on Saturday. Missing a six-footer for birdie at 18 was a niggle but I believe he could be a real threat to James in round four.
Earlier in the week, Gerard revealed: “The guys at WWT have been really good to me. A couple years ago I was a special temporary and they gave me a sponsor exemption. With some of the stuff going on over in the Middle East, didn't feel like it was a great time to go play DP World Tour Playoffs, so decided to come here, help those guys out because they've been great to me in the past. Just excited to be here, love being in Cabo.”
Initially, I thought about backing Gerard to beat James in a head-to-head but they’re in three-balls for the final round and the other member of the group, Chris Kirk, could easily scupper that. So I’ll have a little on Gerard in the outright market at 13/2. There are two each-way places so a reward awaits if he finishes runner-up.
True, James has shot some remarkable final rounds of late but those two 61s at the Wyndham and Biltmore were freewheeling efforts from off the pace; there were none of the pressures of leading. Gerard has certainly been no slouch on Sunday having fired a 65 and two 66s in his last five final rounds. Another 65 today could really put the cat among the pigeons.
Ben Coley has genuine each-way chances with 60/1 DENNY McCARTHY and 225/1 Kensei Hirata, who sit tied third and tied fifth respectively. McCarthy’s performance so far has been utterly baffling. He ranks 1st Tee To Green and had he putted up to anywhere near his usual high standards, the 33-year-old would surely be in front.
But - and this almost needs double-checking - McCarthy is ranked 70th out of 75 for SG: Putting so far. He lost nearly two strokes on the greens on Saturday just to highlight what some had already been scratching their heads over. So, Denny, what have you got to say for yourself?
“All week I felt these greens are really tricky to read and then you throw in a 20- to 30-mile an hour wind on top of that, it just, putting in the wind to me is more difficult than even hitting the shots in the wind just because once the ball gets going, the wind can influence it so much.
“So it depends on when you're hitting the putt, if there's a gust, if it's lulled or if it's constantly blowing. You know, there's so many variables that go into it. And these Paspalum greens, they've been tricky to see. I've made some nice putts, but I haven't really cleaned up in that four- to eight-foot range like I would like. I'm going to go hit some putts here and try and gain a little confidence for tomorrow."
McCarthy is in a two-way tie for third and second-placed Gerard is just one shot above him. The 11/8 to beat Alvaro Ortiz and Paul Peterson in a three-ball doesn’t look too exciting so let’s again go to the outrights and try him at 20/1.
Yes, first tip Gerard then becomes a rival but if James finds it all too much (a big if, it has to be said), it’s still possible for McCarthy and Gerard to fill the top two slots and land both each-way bets. Regardless, the 20/1 is just too tempting given the prospect of McCarthy finding his usual touch on the greens (note: he did record positive SGP figures in round two).
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 08/11/26
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