Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Innisbrook Resort.
Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship final round
1pt e.w. Ryo Hisatsune at 28/1 (bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Andrew Novak at 35/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
The build-up to the Valspar Championship in Florida was dominated by chat around the weather. So let’s make that our first port of call ahead of Sunday’s final round. The forecast is … drumroll … oh, rather underwhelming. Winds are around 8-10mph and it’s a pleasant day in the 70s.
Which, as it happens, is rather fitting. The weather has NOT been the story this week. The remarkable pre-tournament price changes (80/1 shots being shoved out to 150s etc) prompted by fears of a huge draw bias have come to nothing. The idea that those drawn early-late would have a massive advantage just didn’t play out with 39 players from each wave making the cut. The splits: early-late 144.37 and late-early 144.86. The advantage appeared fairly minimal.
And so rather than a spreadeagled leaderboard caused by half the field being wiped out, we have a jam-packed one. The top 23 players range from 3-under to 7-under, with a trio of leaders on that latter number: Nico Echavarria, Jacob Bridgeman and, most intriguing of all, Viktor Hovland.
But having dismissed the idea of a draw bias, let’s just revisit it for a moment! Of the top 16 players, 10 did in fact have a morning start and slightly easier weather. So does that mean the other six have played slightly better to be in this position? There are some class acts in that half-dozen: Hovland, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and Corey Conners.
So, with that thought in mind but not the driving force, I’m slightly drawn to the other two late-early starters: RYO HISATSUNE and Andrew Novak. They played in the tougher conditions on Friday morning but are bang in this, Hisatsune at 5-under, just two off the pace, and Novak a further stroke back. Novak was the one to make progress on Moving Day, jumping 15 spots to tied 11th with a 68.
History supports the idea of backing a chaser as seven of the last 10 Valspar winners entered the final round trailing. Looking at the deficits of those seven, two came from five back, one from three behind, three from two off the pace and another was a single shot in arrears.
Hisatsune at 5-under and just two behind fits neatly into that. The Japanese star made a huge mark in 2023 when winning the Open de France thanks to a closing 66 and being crowned European Tour Rookie of the Year. Last year he was 18th on his US PGA Championship debut and third in the Wyndham Championship when testing his mettle on the PGA Tour.
As for 2025 he’s been inconsistent, missing plenty of cuts but just three starts ago the 22-year-old was 10th at the Mexico Open. And, notably, he’s a particularly strong fourth-round scorer, as he showed in Paris. Over the last 50 events, his scoring averages read: R1: 70.22, R2: 70.56, R3: 69.52, R4: 68.61. For a more recent measure he’s 19th in R4 scoring on the PGA Tour this season.
Speaking after Friday’s round, he said of this week’s course: “It’s tight, and then I feel like it’s similar to Japan with the courses there. I like more to play in position.” In other words, he likes strategy rather than just blasting away with driver and he showed that at Le Golf National. Ranking 11th for Driving Accuracy this week, he’s showing it here too. Take him at 28/1 with the books paying four each-way places.
Despite it bumping him up the board, ANDREW NOVAK will be disappointed he only managed a 68 in round three after dropping shots at 16 and 18, his only blemishes of the day. But just three shots back his hopes of a first PGA Tour win are far from over and he can go into Sunday with no-one really looking at him.
The 29-year-old from North Carolina looks at home on this course and has improved his finish each year at Innisbrook Resort after making his debut in 2022. He’s gone missed cut, 27th, 17th in those three appearances and now has a chance to jump all the way to the top.
He’s played some strong golf in 2025, most notably his third place in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. That came just four starts on from his runners-up finish in the Bermuda Championship so he’s been throwing around the bullseye without quite hitting it. With 35/1 on offer here (45s if you fancy taking just three each-way places), I’ll put some money down on him finding it here.
As for Hovland, are we convinced that he’s playing solid enough golf again to get it done in the heat of a Sunday battle when flaws are exposed? After all, it’s only a week on from him opening with an 80 at Sawgrass. Let’s look at his own words after round three: “I mean it’s fun to be in contention but it is a little bit more stressful when you don’t feel super comfortable over the ball.”
Hmmm, doubts are still there so I’m not dashing to back the 7/2 even though it would be fun to see him get back to winning ways.
As you can see with the selections of Hisatsune and Novak I’m rather cheering on the idea of someone from the ‘wrong’ side of the draw winning this. If you want to play that angle on the other prominent late-early players, best prices are 9/1 Thomas (two back), 11/1 Lowry (two back) and 25/1 Conners (three back).
It promises to be a fascinating final round with so many in the hunt.
Posted at 0928 GMT on 23/03/25
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