Matt Cooper has focused on an over-priced contender in the chasing pack ahead of the final round of the Sony Open.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open
2pt win Chris Gotterup at 11/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt win Nick Taylor at 10/1 (General)
It was a case of hang-on-to-your-hats in the third round of the PGA Tour season-opening Sony Open at Waialae. A day when both ball-striking and putting were tested as the trade winds blustered their way across the flat Oceanside course.
Heading into the final round Davis Riley leads on 12-under 198. He’s two clear of Englishman Harry Hall, Chris Gotterup and Kevin Roy. Ryan Gerard is in the three-way tie for fifth alongside another Englishman, John Parry, and the Canadian defending champion Nick Taylor. Conners, Adam Svensson (yet another Canuck) and Patrick Rodgers round out the top ten sharing eighth, four back of the lead.
The forecast doesn’t suggest that the wind will be outrageous, but the field is cautious, knowing that difficult conditions can arise from anywhere in such a remote spot in the middle of the Pacific.
Riley admitted that he was slow out of the blocks as a consequence of it being the first start of the year. He recovered nonetheless, digging deep, and it should hold him in good stead on the final lap. “There are going to be bad shots,” he said. “You’ve got to make gritty pars and just try to make some putts on these fast greens in crosswinds.”
With regard to that final point he is encouraged by a tweak to his equipment. “I’ve got a new putter in the bag,” he added. “The way it’s coming off the face – the stroke is perfectly matching the speed and start line I’m seeing.”
Quite apart from a two shot lead there are other factors in Riley’s favour. The first is simple course form: he was tied fifth at halfway when T20 on his debut in 2022. He’s also a winner at Colonial, a layout that, like Waialae, features plenty of doglegs and breezes. He’s also probably just relieved that he was able to reset over Christmas because the last six month of 2025 were not that good. He won at Colonial when leading by four at this stage. His only other lead was another two shot advantage, at the 2022 Valspar Championship, when he ultimately lost in extra holes. He’s best price 13/5.
Of those in second, Hall is the most experienced on the front page of the PA Tour leaderboard, with 11 top 10s, and three of them are of interest: at blustery Puerto Rico, similar Colonial and a T10 on the course in 2025. He also acknowledges that so far he’s been in great nick for the test.
“If you keep it in play there are a lot of wedges,” he said, adding: “That’s the bread and butter of my game, inside 150 and putting lights out.” The key, then, is to find those fairways and guess what? “I’m hitting the ball so good (off the tee). That’s the part of the game I really worked on this fall and it’s paying off. My dispersion is a lot tighter. If I can keep it on the short stuff then I have a great chance.”
Gotterup has a lower top 10 count that Hall (seven) but it includes two wins (the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic and last year’s Scottish Open) plus a fine second in last July’s Open. He missed the cut on his Waialae debut last year but that first win was on a flat resort course with Bermuda greens and the second was by the sea (albeit the North Sea).
“A lot of good stuff,” he said after his third round. “I drove it relatively well considering the conditions, played pretty smart, good game plan. We’re confident with what we’re doing. Just need to stick to that plan and keep the head screwed on.”
Roy is yet to win on the first or second tier, but a second place in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour and top 10s at Bermuda and Puerto Rico indicates that he likes a tropical island. He’s 10/1 with Hall 9/2 and Gotterup 11/2. While respecting Hall’s hard work, consistency and bullishness, on career record there’s surely a possibility the prices should be the other way around. We’ll take Gotterup on that argument.
What of the others? Gerard and Parry are riding the Mauritius wave. Gerard was second there before Christmas, Parry has two fifths and a win from three visits there, and the two islands have a lot in common: volcanic, hot, windy and featuring resort courses. A victory would represent a big step up for both and would complete an especially dizzy post-lockdown rise for Parry who was on the third tier in Europe in 2021. The American is 10/1, the Englishman 14/1.
In the group behind, Rodgers is on track for a first top 20 at Waialae on his seventh visit, Svensson has carded 61 and is 5-for-5 at making the cut on the course, and Conners has a best of third on the track (one of four top 15s) but he’s also yet to win away from TPC San Antonio. Conners is respected at 16/1 with Rodgers is 33/1 and Svensson 40/1.
In 2021 Parry was playing near Bromsgrove and Redditch, competing against Dermot McElroy and Kieran Cantley. If he wins in Honolulu today he’ll earn tickets to LA, Miami and New York to take on Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. As a golfing journey it is magnificent and the prospect of him completing it utterly delicious.
The heart is right behind Parry, the head says back the missing man in the above text. Defending champ Taylor is available at double figures (10/1) and looks a solid addition. He didn’t have a top 30 finish after five course visits but since then has been the halfway leader when T11 in 2021, T7 in both 2023 and 2024, and won last year.
Posted at 11:05 GMT on 18/01/26
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