Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Mexico Open
Jake Knapp has burst into a four-shot lead in Mexico and looks set for victory, but Dave Tindall is taking him on in a two-ball double.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open final round
2pts double Valimaki and Grillo to win their two-balls at 100/30 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Boring isn’t it, watching someone burst four clear of his nearest rival after 54 holes of a golf tournament. Not for Jake Knapp, he likes it. So is this now a procession for the 29-year-old rookie? The options: Not all; to some extent; very much so; don’t know.
For the number bods, Knapp is just 1/4 to get it done.
Okay, question two, is second-placed Sami Valimaki the bet at 5/1 given that he’s three shots clear of third? Do you want the options again? Always the same... Not all; to some extent; very much so; don’t know.
Right, we’re going to leave those Office references there. Although maybe the right thing to do is have an each-way punt on Big Keith Mitchell, who sits tied 13th. He’d be much closer as well but for scotching plans and leaving egg on his backers' faces by playing his first three holes of the tournament in three-over.
Given a four-way tie for the lead at halfway, Sunday threatened to be a real shootout with a bunch of names in contention. But after posting suspiciously good Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Approach stats over the first 36 holes, there was another line of thinking that Knapp could kick clear. And so it transpired via a remarkable front-nine 28. He stalled a little coming home but a pair of closing birdies stretched his lead back to five over Valimaki.
Following a third-round 63 to back up his Friday 64, Knapp is still ranked 1st for Approach and Tee To Green. He was also the top-ranked putter on day three. Under weaknesses (here I go again), we can put Around The Green; he’s 53rd overall and was 55th out of 65 on Saturday. This may be nit-picking though.
The stats show that five of seven 54-hole leaders have converted this season and Knapp’s four-stroke advantage is the biggest so far at this stage. He’s a rapidly rising talent - his third at Torrey Pines showed us that - and should get it done but there is one niggle: he’s never held a lead after any round on either the Korn Ferry Tour or during his fledgling PGA Tour career.
Winning isn’t easy and while I think he’ll win, I am prepared to back VALIMAKI to beat Knapp in a final round-two-ball. The Finn was a sneaky pick this week due to a strong record on Paspalum grass which shows a win in Qatar and a third in Singapore in two of his last three tournaments on that surface. Indeed, he ranks 3rd for SG: Putting this week.
This is all new to Valimaki in terms of the PGA Tour but on the DP World Tour he’s done well from this position. He was second after 54 holes in Qatar and went on to win while he started Sunday in second and finished second in the Joburg Open in late 2022. Both times he shot in the 60s. We’re guessing with Knapp so let’s take Valimaki at 5/4 as the first leg of a double.
The second is EMILIANO GRILLO to beat Andrew Novak at 10/11. Grillo has a bunch of good form on Paspalum and had he played the final three holes in 1-under rather than 1-over yesterday - a very reasonable ask as most managed at least that - the Argentine would be in a tie for third.
Grillo had to settle for a 67 although that was still two better than Novak’s modest 69. On the stats, Grillo looks solid and ranks 21st or better in Putting, Approach, Off The Tee and Tee To Green. You can’t argue with Novak’s TTG numbers but his putter looks cold. With calm conditions forecast for Sunday, that weakness will likely be more exposed.
Adding further confidence is that Grillo shot a 65 in the final round here last year to finish fifth and, in fact, two of his last three closers in Mexico events are 65s. Novak hasn’t broken 71 in his two Sunday laps here while his only final round on the PGA Tour this year (he missed his first three cuts of the campaign) was a 72 in Phoenix where Grillo ended with a sparkling 63.
Finally, most firms appear to be betting ‘win only’ or on just the first two home which reduces the appeal of any each-way punts. Third-placed Ben Silverman at 50s with Coral/Ladbrokes (1-2) maybe given that he’s ranked 1st for SG: Putting and matched Knapp’s low round of the day on Saturday, a 63? Silverman is seven behind Knapp, three behind Valimaki and tied at 12-under alongside Chan Kim and Henrik Norlander. There are four at 11-under.
Or perhaps we end where we came in and back Big Keith Mitchell to continue his charge through the field and grab either a Top 10 (9/5 with Sky Bet) or Top 5 (6/1 General). Word of warning: he starts the day three back from the top five. Allez Keith. Booyakasha.
Preview posted 1002 GMT on 25/02/24
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