It's a Saturday finish to the Farmers Insurance Open, where Harris English is favourite to convert a one-shot lead. Matt Cooper has the preview.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open final round
0.5pt win Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 (bet365, Betfred, BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3)
2pts Sahith Theegala & Taylor Pendrith to win three-balls at 4.39/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
As noted by Ben Coley in his pre-tournament preview, the field at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open is somewhat down on quality in comparison with the past and, as it has played out, we have a third round leaderboard that rather resembles one of those old-fashioned 400m handicap races in which an international track star has to chase down amateur runners.
To cling on to the athletics metaphor Partridge-style, the usual two course dynamic that takes place in this event always adds to the sense that there’s a big stagger start to consider. But this year that element was further complicated when the North Course – used just once pre-cut – became not only trickier than normal in the second round but actually more difficult than the South Course.
The favourites have aided and abetted these complications by spluttering through the first 54 holes. Ben’s pre-tournament top selection was Ludvig Åberg at 10/1 and he started like a Japanese bullet train (63) and has thereafter resembled a Northern Rail rattler (75-74). But he’s not out of it and nor is Sungjae Im who sits alongside the Swede in a share of eighth on 4-under. The pair are rated 14/1 and 20/1 chances which makes them the fourth and fifth favourites currently. Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day are a shot further back in T15 and also still live contenders.
There are two fundamental reasons why Åberg and Im, in particular, remain in the reckoning. The first has already been hinted at: the current pace-setters are less than stellar. Even as I type that I’m aware that it is something of an insult to the actual leader Harris English who sits on 9-under. He’s a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, a one-time world top 20 performer, and he loves playing golf in California and on Poa Annua grass. He was second in the event in 2015, eighth in 2018 and third in the 2021 US Open on the course. He was also seventh last year at Riviera. He’s experienced shaky moments at the top end in the final round but then who hasn’t, and it’s possible that his slightly diffident Tom Sawyer-like gum-chewing demeanour gives the impression that he’s flakier than he is in reality. I might be biased here because I got lucky and backed him at 40 before the third round, but I was delighted to be able to lay him back at a low price. 7/4 seems a touch short.
Behind him by one is Andrew Novak, by two Aldrich Potgieter, by three KH Lee, Matti Schmid, Joel Dahmen and Lanto Griffin, and by four Brandt Snedeker, Greyson Sigg, Ricky Castillo, Kris Ventura, Wesley Bryan, Åberg and Im. Other than the veteran Snedeker, Åberg and Im there is very little Torrey Pines or Californian Poa Annua form there.
What of the second factor at play - the tournament, and the South Course at Torrey Pines, in particular? It’s a layout that is a little like an icy road. Catch a slippy bit and it becomes easy to oversteer and lose control. Overturning a significant 54-hole deficit is not unknown. In the last 29 years, Davis Love II (in 1996), Jose Maria Olazabal (2002), Jon Rahm (2017) and Luke List (2019) were outside the top 10 at this point. The king of Torrey Pines final round sabotages, however, is Snedeker. In 2012 he wasn’t too far back by position in sharing sixth yet he was seven blows in arrears of the leader Kyle Stanley. The latter had a five-shot advantage over the field but limped home in 74. Snedeker pounced with a 69 and defeated Stanley in extra holes. Four years later the final round conditions were horrid, Snedeker was T27 and six back of the lead with 18 holes to play, carded a 69 and won by one. The weather is not predicted to add to the difficulty for the pace-setters today, but the general sense that a big number is possible does remain.
There may be a third consideration because 13 of the last 15 winners went lower in round four than round three (one of the exceptions – Justin Rose in 2019 – carded a pair of 69s and the other was Tiger Woods). If those figures are not mere coincidence it is good news for those who didn’t break 70 on Friday which includes Im and Åberg. Given that many will be on the Swede already if they followed Ben, and that Sky reports he has, or has had, the flu, then the eye is taken by the quality a shot further back.
The 10-strong T15 group includes the former tournament champions Luke List and Jason Day, but also HIDEKI MATSUYAMA. The Aussie Day is in nice form and a tempting 50/1 but the Japanese star is just favoured as he seeks to better a tournament best of third (in 2019). He’s recorded seven sub-70 scores in the final round including a 67 last year. He won The Sentry at the start of the year when needing to keep the pedal to the floor and he carded a sensational 62 to claim the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last year. Take him each way at 33/1.
We’ll close with a three-ball double. First up SAHITH THEEGALA has a solid Californian Poa Annua record with five top 10s in his last eight starts including a win at Silverado, sixth at Riviera and fourth at Torrey Pines in 2023. Priced 13/8, he’s up against Jhonattan Vegas who was third on his Torrey Pines debut in 2011 but since then has not broken 70 in the final round, is 2-for-9 at breaking par and five times has needed at least 74 blows. Final man in the group, Sam Stevens, has struggled to beat par on the South Course.
Tempting as it is to add Snedeker to continue his fun this week, we’ll instead include TAYLOR PENDRITH’S experience over Luke Clanton and Noah Goodwin. The pair have plenty of promise but Pendrith was T16 in 2022 and ninth last year. His course savvy can be backed at 6/5 and the best priced double is 4.39/1.
Posted at 1015 GMT on 25/01/25
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