Ludvig Aberg can set himself up for a massive spring by winning the Farmers Insurance Open according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open
4pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Max Homa at 35/1 (Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Rico Hoey at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jake Knapp at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
- Please note: This tournament begins on Wednesday
The patience of those who find Torrey Pines to be restrictive and monotonous will be pushed beyond breaking point over the next few weeks, with the PGA Tour's most famous municipal also set to host the Genesis Invitational following the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.
To me, this seems a sensible choice among limited options. With less than a month to prepare, the stand-in course had to be tournament-ready and rather than spend successive weeks in Phoenix, where we're used to seeing the world's best on Super Bowl Sunday, returning to Torrey Pines next month will at least mean a high turnover from this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
Perhaps this explains why both Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have withdrawn. Is it possible that the thought of seven rounds at the South Course (three this week, with one round at the North) was too much for both these Californians to stomach? There does seem to be some speculation that this really is the reason, which seems curious to me. Why not gain an advantage with a warm-up in this far less valuable tournament?
Whatever their respective reasons – and Schauffele's is in fact health-related – the Farmers field is a barren. There were always going to be victims of a remodelled PGA Tour, those events which no longer hold the appeal they once did purely on the basis of purse size. This one is just made that bit more jarring because of the place Torrey Pines holds in the game, and the fact that it was one of Tiger Woods' strongholds.
If you were to profile the Farmers of the post-Woods age, perhaps its international nature would form part of it. Last year brought us a Frenchman and a Dane with a German in third and this time around it's a Japanese, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sweden's LUDVIG ABERG, who share favouritism at 10/1.
Of the two, Matsuyama has three wins since Aberg's PGA Tour breakthrough but I'd prefer the latter, particularly after such an eye-catching debut last year. Ninth in the end, he holed nothing during the final round before going on to finish second at Pebble Beach. It'll be a bit of a surprise if he's not in the mix again over the coming weeks and it could begin here.
As many will no doubt know, owing to that familiarity we all have with Torrey Pines, the South Course is close to 7,800 yards in length and rewards those who've extra in the locker off the tee, like Aberg. From there, hitting the ball high to small, firm, poa annua greens is challenging and with narrow fairways, so often this is done from the rough – another reason powerhouses are at an advantage.
Matthieu Pavon might not qualify as one of those, but runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard certainly does and third-placed Stephan Jaeger was later rewarded for his work to increase his swing speed with victory on another long municipal in Texas. Alongside him here was Jake Knapp, who went on to win at the wide-open, bomber-friendly resort course in Mexico.
Ludvig! Let's gooo pic.twitter.com/pTXCoDE3BX
— TGL (@TGL) January 8, 2025
With Tony Finau and Taylor Pendrith close up and even Ryan Brehm managing 20th place, there's no denying that the South Course in particular is best for the better drivers and Aberg, who closed 65-64 in Hawaii last time out, is strongly fancied to improve upon his eye-catching debut. That came after a slow start to the year, so on the back of fifth place he's got everything in his favour as I see it.
The infrequency with which Sungjae Im has won PGA Tour events, relative to his talent, and the fact that Max Greyserman is just 25/1 says everything about the depth of this field. There are two truly world-class players and with a couple of exceptions, not least Pavon, this golf course tends to stick to the form book. The last two champions in the US Open here were both course winners from the top five in the world.
With that in mind the next wave of the betting was hard to comb through, six players all making plenty of appeal on paper, but after much deliberation I can't get away from the idea that MAX HOMA is the one being overlooked at 35/1 in a place and 33s generally.
A winner here in 2023, and at Riviera and Silverado before that, Homa has a fabulous record in his home state and on the strength of it, he went off at shorter odds than these for the US Open won by Wyndham Clark a year and a half ago.
There's been a bit of everything since then, his first major top-10 and a good go at winning the Masters some of the best of it alongside two excellent performances in USA colours. On the other side of the coin, last summer was undeniably poor and, in August, he split with longtime coach Mark Blackburn as a consequence.
The overall balance of Homa's form isn't as strong as he'd like but there have been plenty of positives since that coaching switch. First he was excellent again for the US in the Presidents Cup, then defied a slow start to finish mid-pack in Japan, failed to back up a much better opening round at Sun City, and produced four sub-70 rounds in The Sentry to begin the new season.
While he's been third at Kapalua before, I don't think that is the best course in the world for a player whose wins have all come under much tougher conditions and for whom bermuda greens wouldn't be first choice. That's why his quiet week with the putter there doesn't worry me too much and he's much better on poa annua, gaining almost half a stroke per round over the course of his career.
Ultimately, he finished alongside Will Zalatoris there and beat him in South Africa, so I can't quite fathom why Homa, having deservedly been shorter for the Nedbank, is now quite a bit bigger. Zalatoris did play last week and was an eye-catcher whose chance here is obvious as a former play-off loser, but I'd rate Homa's equal if not slightly superior and we have to bet the prices, not the player.
By that I mean that Zalatoris was Plan A, but he's now the wrong side of the line and I'll revert to Plan B. In the long-run, you have to believe such decisions will pay off.
Hoey has a chance at 100s
Jason Day finished third in the AmEx without putting well which marks him down as another obvious candidate. A two-time Farmers champion, the Aussie seems to again have benefited from some off-season time in the California desert and is always a threat at this time of year. In fact, he has somewhat remarkably bagged at least one top-10 finish in January or February every year since 2011.
Maverick McNealy and Sahith Theegala both made my staking plan for the Sony and either one of them could go well, but the latter has been struggling a little on the greens. McNealy would be preferred of the two and was ultimately the fifth player on my list once Zalatoris's odds began to harden, but I'd rather focus on Aberg and Homa, for my money the value options in this thin field.
Sticking with the theme of past champions, there's an argument that the upside of Justin Rose outweighs the downside at 60/1 or so. He's extremely volatile these days, often failing to get involved at all in tournaments, but as we saw in two majors last year his best is still very good. After a winning sign-off to the Team Cup, where he captained the victorious GB&I team, it wouldn't surprise me were he to bring his A-game.
Harris English has done that both in this event and the US Open in 2021 so he's respected along with Patrick Rodgers and Kevin Yu, but preference is for the enormously talented RICO HOEY.
Hoey shot 68-77 on his debut in the event, caught out as so many have been by the South Course, but his long-game was strong and he was let down by his chipping and putting at a time when confidence was low and experience was lacking.
Hopefully that confidence didn't take too much of a hit with a poor weekend in the AmEx, as he's certainly built up plenty over the past few months. In fact over his last 15 starts Hoey has made 15 cuts, with four top-10s, and I won't have to remind regular readers that he really should've won the ISCO Championship during this run.
After taking a break, Rico Hoey rebuilt his love for the game by working at a course. 🙌
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) January 18, 2025
This big-hitter from the Philippines grew up in California and won the World Junior at Torrey Pines so it's a course and conditions he knows very well and that could just be the difference after two eye-catching appearances to begin the year, first when fading from 11th to 59th over the weekend of the Sony, then from first to 58th at PGA West.
Those two venues really wouldn't play to his strengths quite like Torrey Pines should and having been a spectator when Tiger Woods won the Farmers, a bit of improvement on the greens might just see Hoey follow suit. The rest of his game is most certainly good enough and his best putting performance over the past year came on poa annua greens in Detroit.
Knapp material
I thought Vincent Norrman was among the more interesting ones at really big prices but seemingly wasn't alone in that and with experience counting against Frankie Capan and Ricky Castillo, I'll sign off with JAKE KNAPP at 250/1.
Third here last year thanks to an exceptional ball-striking display, it's worth noting that this came after he'd been 70th in the Sony and then missed the cut in the AmEx. This year, he was 56th in The Sentry, then missed the cut narrowly last week despite a third-round 65.
Looking closer at his scorecards, Knapp's only real mistakes over the final 36 holes came with one wild drive and one very poor wedge from the fairway around the Stadium Course, which combined cost him four shots. He missed the weekend by two in the end but, as mentioned, ended firmly on the front foot, especially with the putter.
He's no doubt been quiet since that win in Mexico, which at the time looked like the birth of a star, but did end 2024 winning the Grant Thornton Invitational pairs event alongside Patty Tavatanakit. Before that he'd taken some time off and it's worth remembering that because of his victory in February, his schedule from then onwards involved majors and Signature Events, a big ask for any rookie.
There was just enough in last week's display to take a chance given not only his local ties – Knapp was born just an hour away – but the simple fact that Torrey Pines is an excellent fit for his game. He showed that 12 months ago and at anything upwards of 150/1, there's enough in the price to take on board some unknowns.
Others of note include Patrick Fishburn, another powerhouse made for this test, the frustrating Thomas Detry and the highly promising Alex Smalley, but this really does feel like a great opportunity for Aberg and I'll resist any further speculation, despite the fact that Torrey Pines' profile lends itself to throwing darts at big-hitters.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 20/01/25
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