Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Dubai Invitational

Golf betting tips: Dubai Invitational

1pt Dylan Frittelli to win the Dubai Invitational at 12/1 (General)

1pt two-ball double Joost Luiten and Daniel Hillier at 3/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)

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With the pro-am having concluded on Saturday and a trophy on the line on Sunday, things are about to get serious in the Dubai Invitational, which to this point has had an undeniably start-of-term feel to it.

Returning from the Christmas break, we've a leaderboard where three of the top four were three-figure prices earlier in the week despite this being a limited field. Yes, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy remain massive threats and Tommy Fleetwood isn't completely out of it, but that sense that the very best players could be vulnerable, or at least bring with them more uncertainty than usual, has been borne out to this point.

The other thing working against McIlroy is the golf course and, as expected, driver has not been key to this tournament. Of those top four players the highest-ranked in strokes-gained off-the-tee is Marcus Armitage, who at 34th is nearer last than first. The other three, including leader Nacho Elvira, have lost strokes in that department but made up the difference, largely through a killer combination of approach play and putting.

McIlroy, three behind, has relied heavily on his putter and so has the leader, whose weakness off the tee makes him prone to prolonged periods of modest play, yet he's always dangerous on the right course. This is very much one of them, where it's very difficult for McIlroy to fully press home his driving advantage, and this has been exacerbated by conditions. They won't be getting anywhere close to the previous winning score.

Elvira will play with pre-tournament 300/1 chance Dylan Frittelli in the final group, after Lowry's birdie try on the final hole of round three lipped out, and that's possibly helpful. Yet despite what's happened so far, to win this tournament he's probably still going to have to fend off one or two major champions, with both Lowry and McIlroy nicely set to close out strongly before next week's Dubai Desert Classic.

Calmer conditions might help McIlroy and could work against Lowry, in theory at least, though the prospects of the latter more likely come down to the putter, the handle of which is decorated in European blue and gold. How he could do with those putting heroics of Bethpage if he's to win his first individual title in more than three years, the other having come alongside McIlroy in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Elvira's record with the lead is, on the face of it, exceptional: six wins from 10 chances is well above-average and in percentage terms is superior to McIlroy. That said let's remember most of this comes from the Challenge Tour and when he captured the Soudal Open 18 months ago, things got decidedly ropey from four clear. In Wales, where he won his first DP World Tour title, a six-shot lead required a play-off and plenty of fortune.

In short, taking Lowry and McIlroy at odds-against to beat the leader one way or another is a perfectly fair way to play. You've got the best iron player in the field in Lowry, the best player in the field in McIlroy, and they're lurking in behind, playing in nice two-balls. Lowry would shade preference at a bigger price with a shot in hand over his friend, but ultimately they may not need splitting.

That said, I'm going to stick to the idea that the ingredients are in place for something altogether stranger to happen and with that in mind can't resist taking 12/1 about DYLAN FRITTELLI, the other member of the final group.

The surly South African found his putting boots towards the end of last year and has brought that with him to Dubai, barely putting a foot wrong over the last two rounds. In actual fact his one blemish was a three-putt but otherwise he's played beautifully, his short-game particularly impressive but his approach play too.

He's another who has simply found this course suitable, because you really don't have to be an elite driver. Frittelli has struggled badly with that club since his speed pursuit back in 2020, becoming particularly wild, but while a few scary moments are guaranteed he can for the most part club down around here.

It's not like-for-like with Bahrain, the scene of his last win and a course where he was thrashing driver all over the place and riding his luck, but there are some similarities and one way or another he's still a very dangerous player on a going week. With respect to Marcus Armitage, on the same score, there's simply no way I could consider him a more likely winner even if he's a more solid, reliable golfer on the whole.

Frittelli has blowout potential – the last time he contended he shot himself completely out of the tournament – but two of his DP World Tour titles have come from this stalking position and, with a PGA Tour win also in the locker, he's the one beyond the two Ryder Cup players for whom this wouldn't be the pinnacle of his career to date.

For my money he's worth a small bet at the prices but rather than double down on an unreliable golfer in his two-ball, we'll add JOOST LUITEN and DANIEL HILLIER for a 3/1 double.

Luiten celebrated his 40th birthday last week and it seems one of his presents was a short-game as he ranks fourth with the putter so far, at a course which will definitely appeal to him. He's up against fellow 40-something Julien Guerrier and can continue his daily improvement to beat a slightly lesser opponent.

Hillier's form over the past six months is a level up from Ferguson's and while he's one who will prefer next week's course given his driving prowess, his approach play has been key to his rise. So far this week it's remained excellent and I wouldn't trust Ferguson's putter to keep up the pace.

The double pays 3/1 with bet365 and BoyleSports or you can take 23/10 draw-no-bet with Sky Bet.

Posted at 14:05 GMT on 17/01/26

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