Patrick Reed is odds-on to convert a big lead in the Dubai Desert Classic, where we have an 11/2 two-ball treble for Sunday's final round.
Golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic
1pt two-ball treble McKibbin, Del Rey, Hojgaard at 11/2 (bet365)
Patrick Reed has rightly been lauded for his willingness to travel, his support of the DP World Tour (we'll gloss over the bit where he said he was joining LIV to spend more time at home), and on Sunday he'll have the opportunity to bag the big trophy many will feel his efforts deserve.
Strictly speaking Reed is a DP World Tour winner already, but only in co-sanctioned tournaments held in Mexico and the United States. Despite making trips to the UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Switzerland and the Middle East, he is yet to get his hands on silverware anywhere east of New York.
Never will he have had a better chance to put that right. Reed leads the Dubai Desert Classic by four after another impressive display of scoring which in the end could've been better still, with birdie putts at the 15th, 16th and 17th holes all missing narrowly before he made no mistake at the last.
The former Masters champion is five-from-seven when holding a clear 54-hole lead, the other two occasions seeing him blow out altogether, and that becomes seven-from-12 if we include when he's entered Sunday tied for first place. The latter covers two editions of the DP World Tour Championship nearby, where on each occasion a closing 70 left him a couple shy of the champion.
Will 70 be enough this time? Probably. It would leave David Puig needing 66 for a play-off, Viktor Hovland 65, and those are hard to find at the Majlis, even if forecast rain does materialise and soften up these greens.
That threat of rain in theory could help our selection, Puig, but he's in there with a chance from the final group regardless of conditions. A fast start appears vital and for my money, if he's halved the deficit by the turn, after which come three par-fives and a par-four he can drive but Reed may not even attempt to, then things begin to get interesting.
Hovland won from six back with a closing 66 four years ago and bettered than number on Saturday, despite still not being thrilled with the state of his swing. With respect to Andy Sullivan (T3 alongside Hovland) and Italian duo Andrea Pavan and Francesco Molinari (T5), I will be absolutely amazed if the winner doesn't come from the big three in the betting, all of whom were among the top handful pre-tournament.
Were Puig a couple closer than covering on Reed would likely have appealed, but the leader is now a 4/9 chance and chances are he'll win. I don't think there's a bet in the outright market, whether you're holding a position or not.
The best way to pick apart the two-balls coupon might be to side with the longer, better drivers, who have typically dominated this tournament. Reed would be an exception but as well as being a world-class golfer at his best, I do feel conditions over the first two rounds helped players of his skill set. Saturday was a little different as scoring eased and if that trend continues, rain or no rain, the powerhouses could make hay.
Perhaps the biggest mismatch is Rory McIlroy versus Darius van Driel but in terms of finding a nice price or two, first up is NICOLAI HOJGAARD.
The Dane made one big mistake in round three, taking on a front pin at the ninth and losing two shots as a consequence, but he fought back well and looked very good outside of that mishap.
He's second in strokes-gained off-the-tee and has quickly dialled in a driver which caused him issues last week, so everything looks in place for a strong finish at a course which sets up particularly well for him.
Playing partner Jayden Schaper is the man of the moment but his long-game hasn't been good this week. He ranks outside the top 40 in strokes gained tee-to-green and has needed the odd flash of brilliance on and around the greens to stay competitive.
Unable to reach the par-five third or drive the greens at two and 17, the forecast conditions make life harder for him and around here, now that he's confirmed his long-game is working just fine, Hojgaard ought to be favourite.
The other two I'm keen on for a small-stakes treble are TOM MCKIBBIN and ALEJANDRO DEL REY.
McKibbin doesn't have an enormous power advantage on Johannes Veerman, who lives close to this course and does like it, but the selection has been so much more convincing from tee-to-green. Veerman put up a shoddy defence in the Nedbank late last year and his long-game hasn't been much better here so far.
For the second year running, McKibbin can make a flying finish here in Dubai and perhaps so too can Del Rey, who is up against Marcel Schneider. There's always some trepidation in siding with a roguish talent like Del Rey, but Schneider ranks among the worst ball-strikers through three rounds, is not a long driver, and may find soft conditions against him.
With the closing two holes offering genuine eagle chances for a select few in this field, we'll hopefully be in with a fighting chance throughout. If the same goes for Puig, it'll have been a decent week in the desert.
Posted at 14:40 GMT on 24/01/26
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