Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Bellerive Country Club
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship round four
2pts Nicolai Hojgaard and Collin Morikawa to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Boylesports)
2pts Patrick Cantlay ‘without Wyndham Clark’ at 21/10 (Sky Bet)
The permutations about who has to do what will be diligently listed as the season-long battle to make the Tour Championship reaches its denouement on Sunday. The problem we have though is this: for those on the bubble, how do you separate incentive from added pressure? It’s likely that both positive and negative evidence can be found for each individual player so I won’t expend too much energy trying to frame final-round bets in terms of FedEx Cup standings.
Focusing on the tournament in front of us, after playing the first 36 holes without a bogey, halfway leader Wyndham Clark doubled the first on Saturday to fall out of top spot. To say his response was impressive is a huge understatement. The US Open champion then poured in six birdies and an eagle to kick clear and end on 17-under. Even with a 5-5 finish he ended the day five in front of Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. Chris Gotterup and Gary Woodland are a further stroke in arrears.
Clark had a six-shot lead after 54 holes of June’s US Open and only just got over the line. And, without doubt, McIlroy is a more fearsome sight in his rearview mirror than Sam Burns at Shinneock. McIlroy has history when it comes to making charges in the Playoffs so surely it’s okay to be a little bit tempted by the 9/1 for Rory. Clark is just 1/4.
Maybe so but history tells us otherwise. Clark has converted each of his last three 54-hole leads, two of those coming in the US Open. And if you think that’s not a big enough sample, 19 of the last 20 players on the PGA Tour with a third-round lead of four or more have ended up winning. That’s the blunt truth and I expect Clark to get this done.
A quote from our leader about whether he’ll sleep: “Well, I mean, I always sleep good. But it's more the angst when you wake up. That's usually when I feel it. You wake up and you have that little pit in your stomach, you're excited to go play, and you wish you were teeing off right as you wake up so you didn't have to think about it. But it's also fun. That's kind of what we love as athletes and we chase after the moment, so I'm looking forward to it.”
There are some final-round bets to be had though and let’s start with the two-balls. First up is NICOLAI HOJGAARD to beat Ben Griffin. It’s the battle of two players in 35th so neither is exactly ripping it up. However, Hojgaard’s 5-under lap on Saturday was the joint-best round of the day. He ranked 1st Off The Tee and 3rd Tee To Green.
Griffin played okay but apart from his Around The Green numbers, nothing else looks sharp and there’s a feeling that his season is rather tailing off and his FedEx Cup journey ends here. After a superb 2025, he hasn’t hit the same heights in 2026 and coming into the BMW, Griffin’s last four results read: 42-MC-MC-59.
For the second leg of the double I’ll take COLLIN MORIKAWA to beat Gary Woodland. There was a feeling on Saturday that Woodland, after his 64-65 start, was running flat. Two birdies against two birdies meant a round of even-par 70 and momentum has rather stalled. Perhaps Sunday will just be about consolidating his Playoff position (drat, and I said I wouldn’t mention it).
Morikawa is safely through to East Lake already and he nudged up two more spots on Saturday to solo sixth. An inward 32 was impressive and so far this week he’s in the top 16 for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, Approach, Tee To Green and Putting. Speaking on Saturday he said: “Last week I just, I couldn't read a putt to save my life. I was playing out of the rough as well, but, man. The putting's felt pretty good I would say over the last few months.” The double on Morikawa and Hojgaard pays just over 3/1 at Boylesports.
Finally, some ‘without Clark’ markets are popping up and the one I like is PATRICK CANTLAY at 21/10. McIlroy plays with Clark in the final two-ball which is good in one sense but not ideal in the other. If Clark pulls away I can see Rory, whose body language has been a bit suspect this week, starting to get frustrated and losing rhythm as he chases.
Cantlay, who sits tied second with McIlroy and one ahead of Gotterup and Woodland, will be much happier than Rory to log a solid runner-up finish and this has always been a special event for him (he won it in both 2021 and 2022). After ranking 2nd for Approach in a Saturday 66, Cantlay said: “It's nice to birdie the last any day, especially after letting one get away from you there on 17. I thought I played really well today. I gave myself some chances. I feel like my game's in a good spot and ready to go shoot a low one tomorrow.”
Posted at 08:58 BST on 23/08/26
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