Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove.
Golf betting tips: Biltmore Championship round four
1pt Marco Penge for a top-five finish at 3/1 (General)
1pt Johnny Keefer for a top-five finish at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
It’s hard to get away from the fact that the vast majority of golf punters’ eyes will be on what looks set to be an intriguing final round at Wentworth rather than Sunday’s action on the PGA Tour. In fact, it’s a fair guess that many still wouldn’t be able to correctly name this week’s event Stateside if hijacked and questioned by an influencer doing content outside a supermarket. Probably even fewer would be able to name the course.
So a reminder: this is the Biltmore Championship Asheville taking place at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove. To add to the overall sense of weirdness, birdies and eagles were flying everywhere on Saturday in a third round brought forward due to weather scares but the leaderboard hardly changed.
The leading duo, Neal Shipley (-21) and Ben Kohles (-20), stayed clear of the pack after matching 65s while Ricky Castillo (-17) remained four off the pace after also shooting six-under. Eric Cole (-17) and Jacob Bridgeman (-16) nudged a shot closer after 64s while Hao Tong Li went daft in a 10-birdie 61 to make it a three-way tie on 16-under alongside Max Greyserman.
With another round ticked off, the two leaders have shortened with Shipley now 6/5 and Kohles 15/8. The prize for both is huge. Not only would they become PGA Tour winners for the first time, the two-year exemption would secure a spot on the revamped and lucrative 2028 PGA Tour Championship Series schedule. Times have moved on. This isn’t just about booking a spot in the season-opening Sentry Tournament of Champions – especially as it doesn’t even exist anymore.
It’s likely that one of those two will lift the trophy but I’m not convinced enough about either at their respective prices. Both have freewheeled to this point in easy scoring conditions but Sunday with a trophy on the line is a whole different ball game. I’m also a little spooked by both players’ stats on Saturday. Shipley was 35th tee-to-green and 32nd for approach play; Kohles was 21st and 43rd in those two categories.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to see who might sprout wings to such an extent that they can pick both off so rather than the win market I’m going to delve into the top-five offerings. Li’s 61 shows big moves can be made as he jumped 31 spots to tied seventh on day three. A little further back, playing partner JOHNNY KEEFER popped up with a 62 to advance 27 spots to tied 11th.
And it’s Keefer I like to keep his foot on the gas. The 25-year-old from Texas knows a thing or two about going low as he won two Korn Ferry events last year with scores of -30 (Veritex Bank Championship) and -26 (NV5 Invitational). Keefer carded rounds of 61 in both, a score he also fired when recording a PGA Tour Americas win the previous summer.
On Saturday, Keefer ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green so it wasn’t as if he was just holing everything. In other words, his 62 was a contrast to Li’s 61 (first putting, 28th T2G) and probably more repeatable. Anyway, Keefer is 14th for putting on the week so it’s not as if that element is holding him back.
“Obviously I needed a day like today to just kind of get myself a little bit back in the mix,” he said later. “So glad I could do that and just going to go out and kind of the same plan tomorrow. See if I can get a few more birdies and hopefully play like I did today.”
It all sounds straightforward so let’s roll the dice and back Keefer to continue his charge. He’s 15/2 to make the top five for the third time this season after tied thirds in the Houston Open (final-round 64) and Scottish Open.
While Keefer is 73rd in the FedExCup standings and very much on target to make the top 100 who retain their cards, MARCO PENGE still has work to do as he sits 103rd. But the Englishman seems in no doubt that he’ll come through, insisting that he wants to wrap up his place as soon as possible so he can head back to the DP World Tour to contest some of their big season-ending events.
Penge’s rookie campaign on the PGA Tour has been derailed by health issues but you can see in recent results hints of the form that booked him a place there in the first place. The Englishman has banked a sixth, a ninth and two other top-20s in his last seven worldwide starts (sixth British Masters, 18th Omega European Masters the last two) and he’s continuing that good run this week.
A triple DP World Tour winner in 2025, Penge will start Sunday’s final round in tied seventh after laps of 68, 66 and 64 (62 next?). He ranked sixth tee-to-green on Saturday and 7th off-the-tee while, overall this week, Penge is 7th TTG and 10th for approach. If a couple more putts drop he can jump into the top five (currently one shot off those in T5). It’s a general 3/1 that he does so.
Posted at 06:55 BST on 20/09/26
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