Scottie Scheffler and Ryan Palmer are in the mix in their home state along with two youngsters and a back-to-form Jason Day. Get our best bets for the final round.
Golf betting tips: Byron Nelson final round
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 10/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Patton Kizzire at 50/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Sung Kang at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
Midway through the third round of the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch the current state of the leaderboard would have been hard to predict. The World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler had overcome a slow start to hit the turn in 1-under for the day and stretching clear of the pack looked the order of his back nine.
In rather handy contrast (unless you were among those who, as Ben Coley noted, were backing him at evens when he’d played just six holes of his first round), Scheffler kept everything open with a water treading back nine that ended in a bogey-6.
Three men, Austin Eckroat, Zecheng Dou and Ryan Palmer, share the lead on 16-under 197, two shots clear of a chasing group of four, but there are another 18 golfers within three of them. It’s a fairly significant peloton looking to gobble up that leading trio, each one of which has a big task on their hands for distinct and interesting reasons.
After improving with every lap (69-65-63) Eckroat provided an intriguingly smart analysis of his situation, one you don’t hear too often. “It’s tough,” he mused. “You put yourself in this position and you kind of feel like a win is the only way that it’s a successful week.”
He’s making just a 31st start at the top level and he was fifth in the Corales Puntacana Championship in March – his only top 30 finish this season. Whether he did this consciously or not, he first acknowledged his task, saying “obviously the No. 2 player in the world will be right there” and then lessened it somewhat: “It’s going to be fun. Haven’t played against him competitively since college.” Without even a win on the second tier behind him, 7/1 feels skinny.
China’s Dou is entitled to feel like he’s sucking on very thin air after carding 63-70-64. It’s only his 45th start on the PGA Tour, he’s got a current best of T17th (in last year’s Bermuda Championship) and he’s only once before been top 10 at the end of any round at this level (at halfway in Bermuda). He was a prolific winner at home and is a three-time champion on the Korn Ferry Tour but this is a big ask.
He also admitted to fighting a few background details. Leaderboard watching? “I don’t want to think about it but I do. I don’t want to know who’s in the lead, to let it get in my head and mess up my shots,” he said. The fuss a win would cause back home? “I don’t want think about it.”
He even revealed that his swing has been a bit on and off this year but finally there was some good news for this Dallas resident: “Because this is my home course I’ve had more confidence. It actually helps my swing.” The 15/2 available that Dou pulls off the win is another on the thin side.
And then there is 46-year-old Ryan Palmer, a four-time winner on the PGA Tour but his last individual title came back in 2010 (he won the 2019 Zurich Classic with Jon Rahm and still plays that event alongside Scheffler). It’s also no great surprise that he is sticking his hand up this week: he’s a local and he plays good golf in Texas. His only top 10 since 2021, for example? Here last year.
He had to dig deep on Saturday, adding a 69 to the 64-65 he started the week with. But he used his veteran wiles throughout. “It was a grind for sure,” he said. “I just told myself, relax, stay calm. I was about playing a solid round. I’ve hurt myself, taken steps back playing Saturday recently. Today was a huge step, keeping me up there, now I’m tied for the lead.”
He also revealed that despite having no top 20 all season, he was feeling a little hopeful. “It’s been hard, the last three or four months but the game has been there. It just hasn’t been the results. I finally turned a corner, I think, at Wells Fargo last week. The 5-under on Thursday was all I needed to get my positive mindset back. It carried over to this week. I’m excited. It’ll be fun getting to know those guys a little bit and show them what the old guy can do.” At 4/1 Palmer is understandably the most favoured of the leading three. A bigger price would have been tempting but not this one.
Scheffler remains favourite at 3/1 after tacking a 71 on to his two 64s. He won his first two PGA Tour titles from two back and he’s just a very fine golfer, one who has the hunger to win but who also has a good mindset (he doesn’t beat himself up if he doesn’t win) and he also has less need to do so this week than those around him – both those factors make it easier to win.
This, however, is quite the bun fight. There are lots of golfers in range and there is potential for plenty of low scores. We’ve already had a 60 this week, the first edition of this event saw a final day 63 and 64, last year witnessed a 61, a 62 and a 63 (the winner’s tally). Scheffler, of course, is well capable of being among the low 60s but we’ll look elsewhere.
Sharing fourth with the 2022 Masters champion on 14-under are the Swedish rookie Vincent Norrman (68-66-65), the resurgent Jason Day (64-69-66) and Si Woo Kim (65-66-68). One shot back of them are Patton Kizzire (66-70-64), Tyrrell Hatton (68-67-66), Sung Kang (66-68-66) and Richy Werenski (64-68-68).
Day is back on track after his vertigo problems. He opened 2023 with seven top 20s and is likely to make it eight for the year. He’s 7/1 that it’s a win. Last time out in Mexico Norrman carded his first sub-70 final round of the season and ought to do so again. He’s 20/1 that it’s low enough for the win.
But of the second group it is SI WOO KIM who most appeals at 10/1 each-way.
The four-time winner on the PGA Tour has done so when keeping the pedal to the metal all week at Sedgefield, from two shots back at TPC Sawgrass, on resort tracks at PGA West and at the start of this year at Waialae – the latter two were completed with 64s (and in-between them a 64 got him into extra holes back at Sedgefield).
PATTON KIZZIRE looks worth a chance at 50/1. Two years ago he thrashed a Sunday 63 to finish in a tie for third, he won on the second tier with a pair of weekend 64s and he also made back-to-back 64s when winning the Sony Open (albeit in the middle of the tournament).
The stakes are low on Kizzire and add SUNG KANG who rather likes Texas. He carded a 63 to open up a big lead in the 2017 Houston Open which he ultimately lost. But he then won this event, shooting 65-61-68-67, at Trinity Forest in 2019. He’s not in any kind of form but rarely is – he just sticks his head up every now and again. He’s the biggest price of the leading 11 but maybe shouldn’t be at 100/1.
Posted at 1000 BST on 14/05/23
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