They'll resume at lunchtime at Bay Hill, where Daniel Berger is in pole position. Dave Tindall has the preview.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer final round
1.5pts e.w. Cameron Young at 9/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Daniel Berger started the weekend at Bay Hill with a commanding five-shot lead. He’ll enter the final day with the advantage cut to two. And, yet, due to a 67-minute rain delay, it’s not beyond the realms that the Floridian can build his lead back to five again before the gun fires for round four.
The situation is this: Berger is one of four players still to finish due to darkness halting play on Saturday evening and he faces a 35-foot eagle putt on 16. Should he hole that and pick up another shot at 17 or 18, all things being equal he’ll be back to where he started round three and in a golden position to win his first PGA Tour event in over five years.
But there’s another scenario where he doesn’t have any sort of advantage going into the final 18 holes. If Berger trips up and nearest rival Akshay Bhatia makes some inroads on the two holes he still has to play (17 and 18), we could have joint-leaders for the final lap. Bhatia is currently two back while Sepp Straka (66), Cameron Young (67) and Collin Morikawa (70) are all four behind.
With 21 holes still to complete for the leader, DataGolf make Berger just 50.5% to win on their live predictive model. That equates to implied odds of about even money and yet every bookmaker is going odds-on. The 32-year-old didn’t speak to the press after Saturday’s play so we don’t really know what’s going on in his head but, from a betting point of view, he doesn’t appeal.
There’s another obvious reason to oppose Berger and it isn’t just because his last win came in 2021 (Pebble) and he’s fallen out of the habit. A huge downpour at Bay Hill on Saturday turned the course from a fiery beast to something far more playable. Take Scottie Scheffler. He was three-over for the day before the rains came and then five-under after returning to the softened course before he messed up 18 with a double. Scottie is still being strange. He won here before his 2022 and 2024 Masters wins but won’t be repeating that double again after dropping back to 20th.
Rory McIlroy also won’t be winning at Bay Hill again. You felt Rory could really have done some damage on the rain-softened course but we never got to see that unfold after he withdrew 30 minutes before the off after feeling muscle spasms in his back. After playing a practice round at Augusta last week with dad Gerry – his first return to the hallowed turf since his dramatic win in 2025 – it’s understandable that Rory is carrying some Masters caution. There’s also the little matter of his Players Championship defence next week.
I digress. My main concern for Berger is whether he’ll be able to switch gears. On a fast-running course with bite, plodding along with a big lead is absolutely fine. In one sense he certainly did his job yesterday, playing his 16 holes in even par with two birdies and two bogeys. Had a super-tough course been the deal again in round four, perhaps no-one gets to him.
But an easier Bay Hill is good news for the chasing pack. If Berger can’t find his pre-cut spark, there are plenty who could have a run at him. Bhatia is the obvious candidate, especially as he could cut Berger’s lead before round four even starts. The left-hander is 9/2 and clearly in fine form after third in Phoenix and sixth at Pebble Beach. Bhatia was also third in last year’s Players Championship so can perform in Florida.
However, the player I like best from this position is CAMERON YOUNG at 9/1. We have three places to go at (1/5 odds) and the American can definitely get on the podium and hopefully stand at the very top of it. Young is currently four back and perhaps will have five to make up but he’s capable of doing it.
He’s already shot 67 twice (rounds one and three) this week and he’s been the tournament’s best driver. As well as topping the Off The Tee charts, he ranks 4th Tee To Green and 22nd in Putting. In round three he’s 2nd Tee To Green, 5th for Approach and 15th in Putting. Those are solid, solid numbers and can provide the groundwork for a final-day charge.
Young has six top-10s in the majors starting from 2022 and three of those are top fours. He finally got his first PGA Tour win when blitzing the Wyndham Championship field by six shots last summer and then he was the USA’s joint-top scorer at Bethpage in September’s Ryder Cup. That steep-rising career arc now needs a higher-level PGA Tour victory and landing a Signature Event at Bay Hill would be exactly that.
There’s also the big connection with Arnold Palmer. Young went to Wake Forest, Palmer’s alma mater, and came to this event as a youngster. "There's tons of reasons that this tournament is special," he said after shooting five-under on Saturday. "That Wake Forest connection to Arnold being one of them, for sure. I looked up at his statute going to practice every day at school. He had a tremendous influence on golf in general, and at Wake Forest.
"So, yeah, it definitely is a very, very clear meaning in my head of what this tournament represents and what he represents. Here, it's this kind of mystical place, in a sense. I've always loved it and always happy to come here and get to play."
Six of the last nine winners at Bay Hill didn’t lead after 54 holes (Francesco Molinari came from five back) so it’s been a good tournament for chasers. Perhaps Young can be the latest example and he makes most appeal.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 08/03/26
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