Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for CJ Cup
Martin Mathews has had a great time of things in his final-round previews on the PGA Tour this season - don't miss the latest tips.
Golf betting tips: CJ Cup final round
3pts win Rory McIlroy in CJ Cup outright at 5/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Cameron Smith in CJ Cup outright at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
Let's be honest, for large parts of the first two days the CJ Cup at the ‘new on display’ Summit Club failed to catch the imagination.
A combination of a birdie fest in the desert dominated firstly by the unheralded Robert Streb and then, through 36 holes, by Keith Mitchell meant that the tournament in all likelihood would not be one which would live long in the memory bank.
Saturday changed that all together, and with no disrespect to Mitchell, from the moment he made back-to-back double bogeys on nine and ten, the complexion of the tournament changed completely, and with two of the game’s most charismatic players Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy the ones to take advantage of Mitchell’s slip up, we now have a mouth-watering Sunday shootout to look forward to.
Fowler, who leads the field from tee to green and who hit all 18 greens on Saturday on his way to a 63, will start Sunday on 21-under and with a two shot lead over McIlroy, with the trio of Abraham Ancer, Adam Scott and day-one pacemaker Streb a further shot behind on 18-under.
Fowler’s last win also came in the desert in Phoenix in 2019, since then his slump has seen him fail to make last season's Masters and Fedex Cup play-offs, and the once Ryder Cup stalwart was on no one's radar for the recent USA squad.
Playing this week on a sponsors' exemption, following a visit to his old coach Butch Harmon who is based in Vegas, Fowler has played superbly to take advantage of the opportunity, and a win on Sunday would put his career right back on track.
While the popular Californian has not won as much as he should have over the years, we know he is more than capable and with his most recent success in Phoenix coming when he also held the 54-hole lead, he has plenty of positive experience to call upon.
The bottom line, though, is that there has been a lot of poor golf from Fowler since that win and while there were glimpses of some better stuff back in the summer it is a big ask for him to close this out after so long away from the Sunday spotlight.
A win for Fowler would be a hugely popular one but I just can’t see it and my strong suspicion is this week will go down as a positive stepping stone on the path back.
So if it’s not going to be Fowler taking home the trophy the question is who will step up and take advantage and the obvious answer to me is RORY MCILROY.
McIlroy was last seen on our screens when leaving us in no doubt as to how much the defeat and his overall performance at Whistling Straits had hurt him, and having had time to step away and take stock since that experience it was hard to know which McIlroy would show up this week.
The one that we have seen, though, has been typically open and full of perspective off the course while between the ropes he has produced a performance very similar to his most recent win on tour - at Quail Hollow earlier this year.
On that occasion the Northern Irishman used a hot putter to produce a win on a course we know he loves even though his long game wasn’t firing on all cylinders. This week, on another Fazio design, McIlroy leads the field on the greens and is third off the tee but currently sits 73rd in approach play.
Having lost strokes with his approach on Thursday and Friday, Saturday saw an upturn in that department in his 62 and my suspicion is he will build on that improvement with irons again today.
Following up a 62 with another low number, something he will need to do to win, is never easy but with McIlroy when it clicks, it really does click, and I am happy to take him to close things out.
The man who will keep Fowler and McIlroy company on Sunday and look to upset their party is Abraham Ancer, and a second win on tour for the Mexican so soon after his first should not be ruled out. Like McIlroy, though, Ancer rode a hot putter on Saturday to his low round and unlike McIlroy I am not sure he can keep that going.
Looking further down the field and in all honesty, on a course that is new to us and has thrown in so many low numbers, it is tough to make a pick with any great confidence as to who will come from the pack to challenge the front three. Streb is a proven winner, Scott is certainly due another, and going further down the board Tyrell Hatton is quite tempting.
Based on the first three days, though, what is fairly certain is that someone will make a run from off the pace to contend so I do want to chance another play at more juicy odds, and the man I will plump for is CAMERON SMITH, who starts the day five back on 16-under.
Smith is yet to really catch fire this week with his total being made up of a 66 and two 67s, and unusually for him the club which has let him down slightly this week is the putter.
The Aussie ranks seventh from tee to green, though, and 11th in approach play this week, and if he can get his normally reliable flat stick working he could have a really low one in him.
Smith finished his 20/21 season in really strong form and he will be disappointed to have not posted another victory, particularly at the Northern Trust. He appears to have picked up where he left off this week, though, and at the odds on offer I am happy to play him alongside McIlroy to make a run for the trophy.
Published at 1030 BST on 17/10/21
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