Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for Portugal Masters
Jason Daniels assesses the state of play in the Portugal Masters, where Lucas Bjerregaard is fancied to finish strongly on Sunday.
Golf betting tips: Portugal Masters
3pts Lucas Bjerregaard without the top two at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Kristoffer Broberg without the top two at 5/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
While 10 players are within seven shots of the lead after the third round, there seems to be a set of 'rules' that lead to, at least, a guide to the champion at Dom Pedro.
Links form is widespread with contenders over the years, while all of the last five winners have ranked in the top five (and ties) for putting, four of those appearing in the top five for par-four efforts. The course is scorable with solid tee-to-green play – the top asset over previous years – but it becomes much less of a point-and-shoot when conditions allow, with today playing as hard as any with the crosswind and faster greens. It is visually clear how the likes of Shane Lowry, Padraig Harrington, Lucas Bjerregaard, Andy Sullivan, Tom Lewis and defending champion George Coetzee have succeeded here.
Of interest, even the less likely of winners currently in contention have plenty of relevant form. Halfway leader, Nino Bertasio for example, boasts a top-10 in the most obvious of places, Qatar, and Johannesburg but, ultimately, conditions and the pressure of leading were factors that got to him today.
The last two winners have come from outside of the top 10 at halfway but, of the last five champions, positions after the third round have been 1/4/2/1/3, suggesting we don't need to look too far down.
Pieters holds the aces but looks short enough
The golf commentators today noted that Thomas Pieters never seemed to look happy despite the start of his back nine – five-under through six holes. Indeed, after a bogey on the par-three 16th, he was back at it with an excellent birdie on each of his last two holes. He leads the par-four stats, is high in approaches and greens found and it really will be down to the short game behaving when it counts, something it hasn't managed to do at various intervals over the last couple of seasons.
The Belgian hasn't won since 2019 but his record in contention is decent enough – three wins from eight when starting in the final two-ball, stretching to four from 14 when in the last four players off on a Sunday. As always, he looks a level up from this when he is right (as befits a two-time Major top-10 player) and he is clearly the one to beat, but there have been similar leaders recently at odds-against in recent weeks, all with similar claims, and at no better than 4-5, I'll happily let him win.
Alongside him, Matthieu Pavon looks to win his first event in 160 starts as a full professional and while actually carrying segments of relevant form in the Dunhill Links, Scottish Open and Morgado, he is zero from nine from the last four going into payday. Worries include a couple of missed putts from very short range today despite the footage that was actually holed and he doesn't fit into the winners roll-call as well as his playing partner. At 13-8, he makes no appeal.
The front two take a four shot lead into the final round and it may take a 63 or 64 to come from behind, scores that have been achieved in the last three runnings.
Had there been three places available, all of Lucas Bjerregaard, Kistoffer Broberg, Sam Horsfield and Nicolai Hojgaard would have had major claims of being the each-way bet.
I'm not convinced that all-out attack is the key here, which just rules out the Anglo-American, while the younger of the Danes may just need to complete this outing around here in order to secure his place for the big money in a couple of weeks.
Follow those chasing place money in Portugal Masters
Nervy Dutch Open winner KRISTOFFER BROBERG will have felt a sense of relief when hobbling over the line at Bernardus and the (relevant) subsequent top-10 at St Andrews reads well before a couple of missed-cuts which can be interpreted in many ways. Whatever the reasons, he continues to impress with his approach game and aggressive putting and there is every justification to think he should have been a couple of shots better today, a bizarre chip from the fringe his only real blemish on the day.
Ranking seventh in tee-to-green and fourth in par-four performance, coming from just off the pace may be exactly what is called for from this six-time winner.
According to the official stats, 2017 winner LUCAS BJERREGAARD is ranking seventh for strokes gained around-the-green, fifth in tee-to-green, 17th for putting, and third, seventh and 12th for the various lengths of holes – all comparable at least to the leaders.
Winning the Dunhill Links gives comparison to previous Portugal champions Harrington and Lewis, whilst his defeat by just two shots in Sicily in 2018 meant he was surrounded by a host of players comfortable in the upper circles of leaderboards at Dom Pedro.
Prior to this week's efforts, Bjerregaard had been showing signs of a return to form, leading at halfway at Fairmont before being top-10 at the same point in Kent a week later. A consistent tournament in Madrid preceded a couple of rounds of 67 in Mallorca. None of that is stunning stuff, but certainly enough to believe that the once world number 45 was on his way back.
That his stats are so strong despite a slightly nervous end to today's round shows a game in great shape overall and we've seen many times that players recover from a set of poor holes after a night's sleep. One bad tee-shot on the par-five 17th seemed to rattle the 30-year-old but, prior to that, he was giving himself far more chances than was actually taken and he spoke well during his round despite hoping to hit more fairways. Ranking 60th in driving accuracy, the Dane will need to improve that a tad but this an approach-play track and that part of his game is just fine.
As suggested, there is no real interest in the outright market, but Sky Bet offer odds without the front two and with previous winners coming from inside the top four, take the second-last pairing to dominate this market – Bjerregaard is quite rightly favourite, the Swede a perfect back-up.
Published at 1920 GMT on 06/11/21
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