Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for Open de Espana

Golf betting tips: Open de Espana final round

1pt e.w. Richard Bland without Cabrera Bello and Arnaus at 10/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)

2pts Richard Bland for a top-five finish at 12/5 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Well, that didn't go the way most thought.

Having started the event at around 9/4, Jon Rahm backers found themselves presented with the chance to lay off at odds-on as quickly as Thursday lunchtime. This looked his event beforehand and little through the first 36 holes did anything to change that view, a handful of missed birdie chances suggesting that if anything there was more to come from the hat-trick-seeking Spaniard.

However, this is golf, and Rahm isn't Tiger Woods, no matter how dominant he looks at times.

From around 4/6 at the start of the third round, the world number one now finds himself six shots off the pace in joint-ninth place and as big as 12/1 in places after a lacklustre performance which unravelled with a double-bogey at the fifth. He steadied the ship before the turn but an expected back-nine charge failed to materialise, and he may well need help if he's to create history in Madrid and become the first player to win this title three times in three years.

Saying all that though, this is the world's undisputed best player and unlike many of his rivals on the leaderboard he is a multiple winner in far higher grades. He isn't out of this quite yet, and there's perhaps some mileage in backing him on the exchanges in anticipation of a strong start before the leaders finalise their preparations.

Spaniards rising to the occasion

It's probably not too general to say that tournaments in Spain seem to produce most leaderboards with inspired home players and this week has proven the case once again, even if the best of them has blown it wide open.

The 2019 running here saw Spaniards dominate from the off, with both Rafa Cabrera Bello and Adri Arnaus finishing in the top four, and here they are again, although both have a nagging negative - their ability to get it done.

Bello has been playing a tad better than recent finishing positions, being seventh and 13th after the first two rounds at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and following that up with 21st position after three rounds at potentially comparable Wentworth.

The three-time winner was always in the top three when this event last took place in 2019, ranking second off the tee and from tee-to-green courtesy of fourth in approaches, and the return to his homeland has encouraged the same, A couple of bogeys knocked his figures slightly through round one, but he followed that up finding over four shots tee-to-green (fourth) and ranking sixth today while his putting has clearly been inspired by the return to these greens.

Now two clear after a brilliant 64 he looks the one to beat, but he hasn't converted any of his last 15 starts when in the final two going into the final round and that has to be the nagging doubt at what looks a very short 5/4. This is a massive day for Cabrera Bello, who would dearly love to win on home soil for the first time as a professional, and that could weigh heavily through the early part of Sunday's final round.

Still winless at this level, Arnaus is another who is probably playing better than his figures and, again, the return to Spain has inspired a chance to improve his top-10 record at home, currently standing at four from five on the European Tour.

Like his senior compatriot, however, his form in contention isn't convincing, giving away promising positions in Kenya (first overnight, finishing second), Scottish Open (sixth to 26th), at Leopard Creek (fourth to sixth), the DP World Championship (fourth to 10th), and at last week's Alfred Dunhill Links when falling from ninth to 24th. While some of these admittedly reflect a higher overall level of competition, I'm not convinced his short-game can keep papering over the cracks and it's all a bit worrying.

Given he's won the final event on both the Alps and Challenge Tour, perhaps Dubai is the place to catch him in a few weeks' time at a much bigger price than we are asked to take here, when under the most severe pressure. He'd be a popular winner among punters, having been put up on these pages and many others elsewhere, and that only makes it easier to overlook in-running prices.

Bland looks best from off the pace

Exchange punters may well be advised to lay both at a combined price of around 10/11 and, of the other inspired home players, it wouldn't surprise to see any (or all) of Adrian Otaegui, Pablo Larrazabal, Santiago Tarrrio or Alvaro Quiros nab top-10 finishes. Choosing between them is tough though and instead I'm taking a chance on RICHARD BLAND being able to continue a remarkable run of form that has seen him collect top-five money in half his starts since a maiden victory at The Belfry in May.

• CLICK HERE to back Bland without the big two

As the Club de Campo course gets tougher and the greens quicker, Bland's controlled accuracy appeals as the asset to close in on some iffy leaders. Top-20 for driving accuracy and top-10 for greens-in-regulation over the last three months, the 48-year-old continues to impress with his all-round game, and as the putter warmed up he tore the place apart on Saturday.

His win at the British Masters came courtesy of a low final round from 12th place, while he improved from 12th to fourth in the Irish Open, 37th to 15th at the Scottish equivalent, fourth to third at the London Club, 15th to fifth in Italy, and didn't lose any real ground when finishing fourth last week at the Dunhill Links.

While Bland would lag a way behind some of these in terms of exuberant brilliance, the Englishman's renewed steadiness mames him appeal not only as a top-five bet but also in Sky Bet's market 'without the big two', Cabrera Bello and Arnaus. It's not beyond Bland to reel them both in and he's underestimated in the market, but Spain might just keep this title on home soil and our man is best backed to fill a lead role in support.

• CLICK HERE to back Bland for a top-five finish

Posted at 1800 BST on 09/10/21

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