Jason Daniels expects Kristoffer Broberg to comfortably convert his wide-margin lead in the KLM Open, where Matthias Schmid can be best of the rest.
Golf betting tips: KLM Open
4pts Kristoffer Broberg to win by 5+ shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Mattias Schmid without Kristoffer Broberg at 5/1 (BoyleSports)
1pt e.w. Darius Van Driel without Broberg at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman without Broberg at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3)
While few knew what to expect of new KLM Open host course Bernardus this week, a few days later, universal praise leads to the overriding view that the tournament deserved better than being the act before the Lord Mayor's Show, next week's Ryder Cup.
With run-offs rather than greenside rough, water threatening short or slightly wayward shots and heathland features abound, Bernardus has proven a good all-round test even in perfect weather and organisers can count themselves unlucky that circumstances, both before the tournament and during it, have conspired against them. The course is fantastic and won't be fully mature for at least a year.
KRISTOFFER BROBERG came up short in his quest for a 59 on Saturday, settling instead for an 11-under round of 61 and an eight-shot lead, and is 1/8 to win for the first time since the BMW Masters of 2015. That, by the way, was his last top-10 finish, and the performance of this 300/1 chance has been one of the most amazing of the year.
Considered for many years to be the best Swedish prospect and hardest working golfer by compatriot Alex Noren, the now 35-year-old looked the best player on the park at halfway, dropping just one shot and making 13 birdies through his first 36 holes. Even so, I doubt even he expected to shoot six-under through his first six holes on Saturday, an effort that included an approach and putt from 246 yards for eagle.
Perhaps his mind was racing away as he built up a five-shot lead as he then started driving waywardly off the tee in both directions. However, unlike the disappointing Thomas Detry he kept errors to a minimum, saving par at 10 and birdies at the next two before pushing the button and sauntering clear with six birdies down the stretch. It was seriously impressive stuff and the only shame is he didn't get a putt for the magic number, having found sand off the tee at the last.
An outstanding third round 61 for @kristoffer0801 ✍️#DutchOpen2021 | @Workday pic.twitter.com/Y5NK1F0L4b
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) September 18, 2021
There does have to be a slight worry over his driver - despite leading he is way down in driving accuracy on a course that can punish the wayward - but his second shots, short-game prowess and golfing brain should be enough to get him over the line even if he wouldn't have expected to be in this position. Should he start in the same fashion - he's 12-under for the front-nine - he will be so far clear they will be handing out binoculars at the turn.
Saying all that, this is golf and we've seen enough leaders go awry when the trophy is in sight Even as recently as last week at Wentworth, Kiradech Aphibarnrat looked in cruise control on Sunday before one bad hole effectively cost him the title, so this is not quite over despite a steely Scandinavian temperament.
That said, it could pay to take the 6/4 that he wins by five shots or more. Eight clear of a novice in this grade, Marcus Helligkilde, and 12 clear of the most recent winner, on a course that punishes those who attack too much, a four-under 68 should easily do the job. The odds reflect that it can be difficult to coax a wide-margin lead, but they might underestimate both the lack of pedigree in the pack, and the winning mind this talented Swede demonstrated before injuries threatened to ruin his career.
Schmid might be best of the rest
With the hugely promising Richard Mansell continuing to let himself down on the greens each week, maybe 23-year-old MATTHIAS SCHMID can prove the biggest challenger from a shot off second place.
Winner of the European Amateur in 2019 and 2020, Schmid turned professional after finishing as the low amateur at Royal St George's, just a week after his best finish so far on the Tour - 14th at his home BMW International Open. This is a big enough event to break your duck so the fact they are probably chasing second place will help the rookies and he just may be the best of them, if not now, then in not too long.
With only a couple of recorded stats available, Schmid ranked top ten for accuracy off the tee at The Open and in Wales, something that must help on Sunday, and he looks ready to cope with the demands of the final group. Had he been closer to Broberg then perhaps it would've been a negative, but the Swede will have to endure a nightmare start for the chasers to feel real pressure, and that is not expected.
It's not too big an ask to come from a few behind the promising but unproven (in this grade) Helligkilde in the battle for second, and JOHANNES VEERMAN and Darius Van Driel also make considerable appeal in the 'without Broberg' market.
Veerma, winner of the Czech Masters from a couple off the pace when beating a leaderboard containing no recent winners, can play without fear and that counts for plenty. We are only asking him to turn around a four-shot deficit on a potentially nervous contender in the Dane, and both Mansell and Alejandro Canizares know this is a chance to secure their cards and may be anchored by that.
As is often the case, a win allows a player to relax for the rest of the season, their playing rights secured for the following year, and the American looked maybe too relaxed so far this week. Lots will depend on the short stick in terms of how far forward he moves but his improved accuracy will give him an advantage over those with less control of their irons under the gun.
With recent final rounds of 65 in Scotland, 68 in the Czech Republic and 69 in Italy all moving him up the board from rounds three to four, he's a confident selection to be right there when the medals are handed out.
Leading home player VAN DRIEL has a number of decent finishes so far this year on European Tour and while his last couple of wins were in 2018 and 2019, the form needs looking at closely.
In Austria three years ago, the Dutchman beat JB Hansen, Sean Crocker and Francesco Laporta while a year later he won the prestigious Challenge Tour event, the Rolex Trophy, from the likes of Richard Bland and Callum Hill, notably with a weekend scoring of 63-64.
With the new course here this week, I'm not sure how form at the various tracks correlates but seventh at the ISPS Handa (fourth overnight) followed a top-20 at the Irish Open, eighth in Gran Canaria and a top-10 in Kenya reads well enough in this company, and that's without the joint runner-up at the shortened European Open in Germany.
Despite his perceived lack of length, Van Driel had three birdies and an eagle on the par-fives on Saturday and, like Veerman, just needs to keep that quality tee-to-green and iron play going as he has over the last two rounds. The crowd will have moved on to him as their new favourite for the week, something that we have seen many times will boost a player rather than hinder, and he can give them something to cheer even if the event does soon develop into a question of 'how far', to which hopefully the answer is five or more.
Posted at 1750 BST on 18/09/21
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