Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Black Desert Resort, with outright and 'top-5 finish' selections to consider.
Golf betting tips: Bank of Utah Championship round four
1pt win Ben James at 18/1 (William Hill, Betfair)
1pt Johnny Keefer for Top 5 finish at 19/10 (bet365)
As much as I’ve enjoyed watching the visuals of Black Desert Rock, it was a stretch to stay up and take in the conclusion of the third round - especially with Dad Taxi duties at 7am the next morning.
When I called it a day late on Saturday, the prospect of a packed leaderboard for Sunday’s final round looked likely. But, on waking up, it showed a different story with two players separating themselves from the rest of the field. Austin Smotherman birdied four of the final six holes to hit 23-under while Doug Ghim came home in 29 to sit just a shot back.
Those late surges point to a two-horse race in Sunday’s closer as it’s four shots back to the group in third. That idea is very much reflected in the odds with Smotherman 11/10 and Ghim 6/5. It’s 18/1 bar in places. So do we need to look to different markets for the best round four bets?
Maybe not. The other way of framing this is that it’s a shootout between two players who have never won before. In other words, rather than one gun the other down to emerge as last man standing, both could shoot themselves in the foot. Smotherman is winless in 99 PGA Tour starts while Ghim is still knocking at the door after 191 attempts to get it done.
The psychological aspect is intriguing. Both are probably happy that they’re going up against a fellow maiden rather than a proven winner and yet there must also be the feeling of ‘this is a golden chance, don’t blow it now’. As for the stats, perhaps they hint at the vulnerability which could lead to this all ending in tears. Ghim was only 62nd in SG: Approach in round three, with Smotherman 46th. In other words, their putting did the heavy lifting on Saturday and that’s the least reliable metric to repeat.
This is all a rather long-winded way of saying I’m happy to take both of them on. The feeling would be that if Smotherman and Ghim can only shoot say 1-or 2-under par on Sunday, they’re open to attack from the -18s (Trace Crowe, Ben James, Kevin Streelman) and the -17s (Johnny Keefer, Stephan Jaeger, Steven Fisk). Keefer shot a 62 on Saturday, the third 9-under of the week, so there’s a low one out there.
The one I like to sprout wings and produce a flying finish is BEN JAMES and there’s a very obvious reason why. In his last two starts, the Wyndham Championship and Biltmore Championship Asheville, he’s shot stunning final-round 61s both times. They vaulted him from 15th to third in the former and from 11th to second in the latter.
James carded a 64 in round three and said: “Did nothing crazy but did everything I needed to do. Kept the ball below the hole, hit the fairways and putted well inside 10 feet, which I needed to do. Didn't make any crazy bombs on the greens but just my distance control was nice and putted pretty solidly.”
The No.1 player in the PGA Tour University Class of 2026, a win for James would continue the early trend of this tournament going to players with very little PGA Tour experience under their belts. Matt McCarty (2024) and Michael Brennan (2025) were new kids on the block at this level and, similarly, James is making just his 19th start.
One other quote from the 23-year-old I like is this. Reflecting on his two recent final-round surges, James said: “I really didn't care much on those Sundays. I had nothing to lose, and I have nothing to lose tomorrow. I'm going to play the best I can, try to hit smart shots, and if the putts fall, great. If not, go on to the next week.” In terms of history and leaderboard position, he’ll surely feel less pressure than the two leaders.
With just two each-way positions on offer, I’ll opt for ‘win only’ on James at 18s. One other alternative is bet365’s Top 3 finish at 7/4 but let’s go for the jugular here as it looks set up perfectly. While the two leaders’ Saturday scores were propped up by their putting, James ranked 1st for SG: Tee To Green and 4th for Approach.
My second bet is JOHNNY KEEFER for a Top 5 finish at 19/10 with bet365. While there’s always evidence to show that it’s hard to follow a low one with another, Keefer did a pretty fine job of that at the Biltmore last time out when he went 62-65 on the weekend. Shooting 64-67 over the final two rounds of the Scottish Open to finish third was good work too.
Speaking after his 62 on ‘Moving Day’ here, Keefer said: “I feel like the game has been trending really nicely. The first two days I hit the ball off the tee great, and was just kind of waiting for my opportunities. Every now and then the putts would drop, was just kind of real steady, and then today obviously some more putts dropped.” Keefer was 1st for SG: Putting and 6th for Approach in round three. If both elements stay strong, top five is a very reasonable ask. He’ll start Sunday in a three-way tie for sixth.
Posted at 09:32 BST on 04/10/26
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