Jason Daniels assesses the state of play in the Andalucia Masters, where Matt Fitzpatrick is backed to prevail at Valderrama.
Golf betting tips: Andalucia Masters
3pts Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Andalucia Masters at 11/4 (General)
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger to win the Andalucia Masters at 12/1 (1/5 1,2,3 General)
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger to be lowest Sunday scorer at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Sky Bet)
Despite all the love for the likes of Le Golf National, Wentworth, many of the links courses and this week's host, Valderrama, there is no question that these classic tracks increase their appeal with bad weather. Rain, wind or both certainly make all players think a little bit more than usual, but as we saw at Royal St George's, take that away and they are scorable.
'It's like going eye-ball to eye-ball with a golfing Hannibal Lector' said Wayne Riley of the Sotogrande track, and while it really hasn't been as hard as last season's duel between John Catlin and Martin Kaymer, Sunday pressure, faster greens and merely reputation will surely allow Valderrama to exact revenge on those shooting 64 and 65's over the last couple of days.
It might be a tad cruel to compare, but given Richard Bland eventually won a top tournament as his maiden after 478 tries, it's not impossible that Laurie Canter takes a similar period to do the same, despite some near misses and around 300 events in hand.
The current leader has always been one of the better tee-to-green players on tour and he has taken an aggressive approach to this year's Andelucia Masters, currently top-20 in distance off the tee, allowing him the freedom of shorter approaches off an even better ranking in accuracy. None of that is any real surprise given he ranks eighth in ball-striking over the last three months, and with him leading the par-four stats this week, all that looks like a perfect recipe for success here.
The 31-year-old seems to be taking pressure off by following caddy Gary Tilson's every word and perhaps that will be the difference tomorrow but, at around the same price as multiple winner Danny Willett was for the Dunhill Links (11/8), we need everything right and so far he has failed to convert from the final pairing in all of his five chances through the grades.
Yes, he was chasing a better field at Wentworth and Dubai, although it's hard to forget the mess at the par-five 17th in Surrey when needing a relatively simple up-and-down, and previous to that when recording a double-bogey at the same 71st hole when in with a chance. That nasty missed three-foot par putt on his 16th today brought all that back while his birdie attempt on 17 was weak, forgiven slightly by the final hole birdie.
Canter's biggest chance was in Italy in 2020 when the course set up beautifully for a big hitter but he again let follower's down, giving Ross McGowan the trophy after a spell of short game woes. Below 150th for scrambling over the last three months looks a serious problem for a player dependent on hitting greens, and while history indicates he has a serious chance, at the price I can let him win his maiden.
MATT FITZPATRICK, clear second-best player in the field according to the official world rankings, is far more convincing as a winner and I'd be pretty confident he can give the current leader three shots and a beating around here.
Ben Coley's pre-tournament preview highlighted his chance and, while that author couldn't bring himself to play at 12-1 pre-event, I'm happy to make him closer to the favourite going into tomorrow.
Fitz was, of course, the main beneficiary of Canter's nerves in Dubai, a final round 68 capping off his second win at the DP World, and it's those wins, plus form figures in Crans – two wins, second and seventh – and a runner-up finish in the wind and rain at Fanling that aid his cause. Add in mid-20 and 30 finishes at Augusta and the case becomes even clearer.
Caddy Billy Foster says this is one of his favourite courses, his charge ranks second for tee-to-green on Friday – just behind Canter – and likely highly today, he is miles ahead with the short game over any period of time you wish to choose and he simply looks too good when it comes to the crunch, an excellent par save at 18 demonstrating his ability under the cosh.
Followers of our pre-event column will be cheering on Alexander Bjork for a place at 125-1, but the last three winners here have been in front at this stage or earlier, while none of the last nine have been outside of the top three, and should that continue, we have a very short list of potential winners.
More wind will suit confirmed links winner Min Woo Lee, but he is another that takes advantage of his length, although is clearly a much better putter than the current leader, and therefore the only other play is Fitzpatrick's Ryder Cup team-mate BERND WIESBERGER.
The Austrian's progressive play at the Spanish Open last week suggested he was over his cross-Atlantic tribulations and the majority of his victories have a certain formline to them that suggests this must suit.
Go back to 2012 when beating Shane Lowry at the Lyoness and through his other seven victories at this level, where many relevant players spring up on the leaderboards. Defeated players include the likes of Richie Ramsay, Romain Langasque, Andrew Johnston, Fitzpatrick, Martin Kaymer, Tommy Fleetwood and Fabrizio Zanotti, all giving credence to the view this is right up his street, whilst an older placing at the Gary Player club and a latest runner-up at Crans back up his Himmerland victory.
Taking a bit off his tee shot has led to giving genuine chances here this week. He has improved through the rounds from 73/70/68, is now ranking in the medals for tee-to-green and, as seen with the likes of Renato Paratore, Ryan Fox and JB Hansen today, this is going to be about experience around tough tracks, under pressure. Indeed, given the Austrian's low rounds at Denmark (64), Scotland (66), Switzerland (65) and last week in Spain (66), I'll also take a chance he shoots the lowest Sunday round.
Published at 2220 BST on 16/10/21
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