Golf betting tips: Final-round outright and two-ball tips for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA round four

2pts JJ Spaun to win the BMW PGA Championship at 13/2 (General)

2pts Ayora and Hovland to win their two-balls at 6/4 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

On average, there have been about four players within three shots of the lead in the last 20 years of BMW PGA Championships. On Sunday, there will be 15 of them, after a concertina third round at Wentworth blew this tournament wide open.

Despite a generally slow start, several players burst into life from the morning groups, Kristoffer Reitan first to shoot 64 before both Alejandro del Rey and Johannes Veerman matched him. These scores seemed certain to be immaterial to the tournament proper: they took Reitan to 11-under and the other two to 12, the score on which 36-hole leader Ryan Gerard began the day.

Yet as the wind whipped up to greet those with afternoon tee-times, as Gerard struggled from the very first hole, it soon became clear that Reitan, del Rey and Veerman weren't just in the tournament – they were going to fill some of the last few tee-times for the final round. Remarkably, it took until minutes before 5pm for anyone to nudge their way to 13-under, one better than those who'd finished hours before.

Rory McIlroy may therefore feel a sense of relief that the door was left ajar and delight that he wedged a foot in thanks to a birdie-eagle finish, the kind that Wentworth always tantalises you with. It saw him end a horror putting day within two, back at the head of the betting, and given how little went his way over the first 16 holes (some of it self-inflicted), we can have no complaints having been on at 10/1 at the start of the week.

To me, this performance underlines why he simply shouldn't be 10/1 for a DP World Tour event he loves, certainly not until such a day comes that Scottie Scheffler is in the field or McIlroy isn't the best player in it. He's had an awful driving day (Thursday), a quiet putting day (Friday) and a shocking putting day (Saturday), but he's still favourite. Win or lose, this is one selection I definitely won't regret.

Leaving JJ SPAUN out of the staking plan was, however, regrettable to say the least. "Some loose change has to go his way if you can," was the line for those who both read the copy and have access to Betfair Exchange, so no doubt some readers will have a nice position at around the 65.0 mark. That is some consolation but after Shane Lowry last week, the prospect of Spaun winning this tournament fills me with dread.

He is the biggest danger in my mind; a major champion, a winner this year at a course with comparable scoring conditions, perhaps even a Presidents Cup reject with a point to prove. That he's played holes 17 and 18 better than anyone in the mix is no bad thing either given the likelihood that this goes down to the wire and he has to be top of the list for those either entering or re-entering the outright market.

Leaders Manuel Elvira and Filippo Celli will be thrilled to be out together again in the final round after closing birdies, Elvira's merited and Celli's fortuitous. Elvira is a solid operator and Celli a big talent, but victory for either would be as impressive as anything I've seen on the DP World Tour this year. This is the flagship event, they're being hunted by some of the best players in the world, and the pressure is likely to prove too much for both of these maidens.

Veerman is harder to dismiss having won the prestigious Nedbank Golf Challenge in 2024 and del Rey is also a DP World Tour champion with an explosive quality, but Spaun stands out among the five who are ahead of McIlroy and has to be preferred.

Reitan, Davis Bryant, Joaquin Niemann and Adam Scott complete the group alongside McIlroy and this is where I'd draw the line on likely champions. Those on 10-under have 10 players to pass, five of them exceptional, and while Saturday's switch-up gives hope to those attempting to come from the clouds, there may be too much traffic to pass and too little time in which to do it.

Niemann is the biggest threat among them and may benefit from having dodged a McIlroy two-ball thanks to Scott's missed eagle chance at the final hole on Saturday, which instead leaves Scott and McIlroy together for a blockbuster group that goes to the tee before the others on 11-under and better. That in itself will create a fascinating dynamic, the pair sure to attract a big crowd and maybe leave behind them a strange atmosphere.

That may suit the leaders, who will tee off at about the time McIlroy is heading to the par-five fourth, but hopefully by then he's made inroads and is ready to take the lead. Thanks to a Hollywood finish, we live in hope for now, and the fear Spaun creates can at least be mitigated by a saver.

Two-ball tips

There is one small potential negative regarding Spaun's chance and it's that there was an undoubted shift towards bigger hitters on Saturday, a reflection of what appears to be a blend of receptive greens and still quite sparse rough after a dry summer gave way to some pre-tournament rain.

Veerman, del Rey and Reitan were the three who carded 64s and each is powerful, particularly the latter pair, while Robert MacIntyre and Sam Bairstow are handy off the tee too and theirs were the next-best scores. To my eye this was a notable shift from the first two rounds and while early tee-times were the primary reason for these low numbers, length must surely have been a contributing factor.

The fact that there's rain around on Saturday night means Wentworth's sub-air system won't be able to overcome that receptive quality and it leaves me looking for mismatches off the tee.

Two of the biggest discrepancies are between Freddy Schott and Kazuma Kobori, and David Puig and Andy Sullivan, but in each case the shorter hitter is a sometimes deadly putter with some good form in the book and I'm wary of opposing them.

Instead, we'll go again with ANGEL AYORA, who finished his third round on the front foot and should have too many guns for Ricardo Gouveia.

The latter has actually outperformed Ayora off the tee so far but that's unlikely to continue and in this battle of Spain versus Portugal, Spain is heavily favoured.

As well as the power discrepancy, Ayora is one of those who had the tougher side of the draw to deal with. Note, the two surprise leaders, Elvira and Celli, both enjoyed the best of it and Gouveia actually played with the former over the first two rounds.

In effect, Ayora has been a couple of shots better than Gouveia so far, without the help of his best club. If he can tighten up off the tee he really ought to make amends for coming a shot shy of securing us a nice double in round three.

That double was with VIKTOR HOVLAND, who landed his side of the bargain by six shots and can win again versus Yuto Katsuragawa.

While Hovland isn't the longest he's a good bit longer than his Japanese playing partner and, again, we have the draw aspect: Hovland played early-late, Katsuragawa late-early. The latter was clearly best, underlined further by the entire top five on the leaderboard having begun their tournaments on Thursday afternoon.

The Ayora-Hovland double pays 6/4 again with bet365 which looks cracking value. Hovland's opponent is definitely a step down and so is Ayora's on recent form. Anything evens and upwards is a bet but let's face it, despite profit on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, a successful BMW PGA Championship depends not on some early two-balls, but on what McIlroy has in the locker.

Posted at 19:00 BST on 19/09/26

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling.

Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.