Ben Coley previews the third round of the DP World Tour Championship, where Rory McIlroy is tied for the lead with a Ryder Cup teammate.
Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship
2pts Fox, Hillier and Jordan to win their two-balls at 5/1 (General)
Prior to the start of the DP World Tour Championship it was easy to envisage one of the big four walking off with the title, and halfway there we have two of them tied for the lead at a menacing Earth Course.
It took 18-under to win this title last season but thicker rough, firmer greens and a persistent breeze have Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton tied on just five-under, the same score that had led after round one. Something like eight-under might just be enough come Sunday night.
McIlroy looked like he might get to that figure on Friday only to stumble before a closing birdie. He's about 13/10 to win the tournament and with it a record eighth Race to Dubai title, odds that look very fair given that he's the clear leader in the tee-to-green stats. Hatton, now 4/1, ranks third and has looked very good at times, though he's also got the hump over the state of the greens and the toys could yet leave the pram fully.
Hatton is never particularly happy and I wouldn't read too much into his antics over the first two days, but McIlroy is likely to prove hard to beat. For all that conditions are tougher than anticipated, this is still a power-heavy leaderboard with McIlroy, Kristoffer Reitan, Mikael Lindberg, Freddy Schott, Jon Rahm and David Puig all inside the top 10, and McIlroy's driving prowess seems sure to carry him right to the death.
Beating him won't be easy but I've certainly not yet given up on Rahm, who is three behind. It would've been nice had he birdied 18 after a good wedge but the consolation prize is a tee-time alongside young compatriot, Puig, so let's hope these two spur each other on to the sort of mid-60s number that will surely be required in order to keep tabs on the leading duo.
It's 15/2 McIlroy-Hatton in bet365's straight-forecast market and 12/1 McIlroy-Rahm, two options for those wanting a sporting weekend wager and unable to see past the short-priced favourite. Hatton and Rahm are the top two in the 'without McIlroy' market, too.
Victor Perez and Kristoffer Reitan rate the biggest threats to the elite players but both have ridden scorching-hot putters so far and a tournament that always seemed set up for the market principals remains that way after two rounds. If anything, tougher conditions might help them to put their class to use over the weekend and we can expect McIlroy to edge out Hatton and Rahm in a reversal of last week's Abu Dhabi Championship.
On the two-ball front, it was frustrating that those selected on Thursday all comfortably beat those opponents on Friday (by a 10-shot aggregate margin) and I do maintain that length off the tee is an advantage. That and the evolving Race to Dubai picture are key considerations heading into the weekend.
Among the earliest starters, Angel Ayora has nothing to lose after a poor 36 holes, he's playing with a compatriot, and he holds a definite power and course suitability edge. However, he's been a costly conveyance this year and a slow start would end his fading hopes of earning a PGA Tour card. Odds of 4/6, with the risk he's soon deflated, simply don't appeal.
The best bet on the coupon is DANIEL HILLIER to beat Matt Wallace.
Hillier is defending a good Race to Dubai position but has plenty of breathing room and the way things have panned out so far, his prospects of securing PGA Tour membership have improved despite dropping one place on the standings. He's very, very long odds-on now and that might just free him up to attack a course made for his powerful game.
Wallace has been runner-up here before but on reflection maybe a difficult couple of weeks off the course have left him vulnerable. He ranks last in approach play, the staple of his game when he's firing, and has been wayward off the tee as well, ranking 49th of 50 in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
Hillier, a long driver who is also accurate, has been significantly superior in that regard, his irons firing again, and as he was also a shorter price pre-tournament, I can't see how this is a 50-50 match as implied by the odds. Hillier's game is in better shape, he has more to play for, and he's a confident selection.
Adrian Otaegui ranks 33rd in approach play and 38th off the tee, both lowly in a field of 50, and MATTHEW JORDAN is fancied to beat him.
Jordan is the best iron player in the field so far but his putting gremlins remain and he's therefore on the fringes rather than in the mix. But this still represents a good recovery from three-over through five on Thursday and he can sign off the season with a top-10 finish.
Jordan is much longer than Otaegui and around the 7,700-yard course that is a sizeable advantage, one he can put to use if putting just slightly better than he has so far. Otaegui's short-game has carried him but putting isn't his strength either and if they're closer together in that department, then it should be Jordan who scores best.
I was somewhat interested in Niklas Norgaard as his opponent Nacho Elvira is a weak driver who has loads of pressure on his shoulders, but the big Dane hasn't been convincing enough and can fritter shots away.
RYAN FOX is therefore preferred as while his waywardness off the tee would be something of a worry in these conditions, Davis Bryant has been no more accurate thus far.
Fox has made three par-five bogeys in a sloppy performance, two of them three-putts, but he came here in good form and don't forget his Open win came from outside the top 50 entering the weekend. Repeating that isn't happening but he can sign off a dream season with a strong weekend, leaving short-hitting Bryant well behind.
Posted at 16:20 GMT on 13/11/25
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