The battle for the Race to Dubai is wonderfully poised heading into the final round of the DP World Tour Championship. Ben Coley previews.
Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship
2pts McIlroy, Scott and Hatton to win their two-balls at 3/1 (General)
1pt Hatton to beat McIlroy in the straight forecast market at 9/1 (bet365)
1pt Hatton to beat Scott in the straight forecast market at 16/1 (bet365)
For the best part of three days, Rory McIlroy winning an eighth Race to Dubai and fifth in succession has seemed close to a formality. Favourite pre-tournament and throughout the first two rounds and with Eugenio Chacarra making costly mistakes to offset a raft of birdies, McIlroy seemed sure to either win or very nearly win, with the Spanish pace-setter falling short of what he required and Patrick Reed well off the pace.
But now, heading into a final round which sees Tyrrell Hatton lead Victor Perez by one, McIlroy has much to do. The permutations are complicated, but from four behind the only way he can be sure of winning the season-long race is by winning this title. Now that Chacarra is alongside him in a tie for fourth place, even second is far from certain to do the job as this battle goes to the death. It's such a pity that the two are not paired together.
There could be something in that draw. McIlroy goes out just before Chacarra and will relish the chance to apply pressure to a fidgety rival who likes to play quickly. That should mean Chacarra is standing in the fairway watching McIlroy putt and if they begin to drop, perhaps it'll have an effect on the leader. That being said, his response to an ugly double-bogey in round three was to play the remaining 13 holes in five-under. He has plenty of fight.
Either man could seal the Race to Dubai in style, but Hatton is five from seven with a clear lead and will be desperately difficult to shift. I think he'll win, and that will be another little kick in the teeth at the end of a very difficult season for these pages. We were on Hatton three times in the autumn and he was abysmal; now free from any doubts as to his future in the wake of LIV's collapse, he's putting to bed any doubts as to next year's Ryder Cup too.
Speaking of kicks in the teeth, I'll let Jon Rahm describe what happened when he was putting for birdie on the 16th hole from very close range, but walked off with a double-bogey. "I've screwed up the tournament and it pisses me off," said the Spaniard. Indeed. Had that eight-foot putt gone in and he gone on to register the same finish, Rahm would be in third place and in with a reasonable chance. As it he'll need to shoot 65 and get lucky, which appears most unlikely.
As in Abu Dhabi last week I think the leader wins and the price is about right. Perhaps second-placed Victor Perez will throw his hat into the Ryder Cup ring and win his second Rolex Series title in the Middle East. Whatever happens, it seems likely we have our third ex-LIV win since the last event of that doomed circuit, a glimpse ahead to a big 2027 on the DP World Tour.
Perez though is a lowly 36th in the tee-to-green stats, which is quite remarkable to be honest. It's extremely rare to be able to compete at this level while giving up so much ground and according to the stats, Perez is on for not just a career-best putting week, but one of the best of the season anywhere in the world. In the glare of the final group and with so much at stake, I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle.
With that in mind, HATTON TO BEAT MCILROY at 9/1 is a good option for those who can. These are the top two in the field from a long-game perspective, I expect McIlroy to at least apply pressure to Chacarra with history to play for, and Hatton is a formidable front-runner with an excellent record in the desert.
Given that Perez looks vulnerable and that third-placed Mikael Lindberg has never been in the mix at such a high-profile event, this looks ripe for one of those on five-under to throw down the biggest challenge to the leader. The dual forecast is 11/2 but if Hatton shoots 70 or better that ought to be enough to keep McIlroy at arm's length and force us all to get the calculators out for the Race to Dubai.
The other appealing option here is HATTON TO BEAT ADAM SCOTT as the Australian was excellent in a bogey-free 67 on Saturday and leads the field in strokes-gained approach, further evidence that his irons are as sharp as they've been in a long time. It all bodes very well for his return home in the coming weeks but before then, a strong finish to the DP World Tour Championship awaits.
Similar logic leads to McIlroy, Hatton and Adam Scott winning their two-balls and that seems the way to play. We saw class come to the fore last week in Abu Dhabi and, in the end, that may be how things play out here.
I did also ponder Francesco Laporta at 6/4 to beat Chacarra, envisioning a scenario where McIlroy applies pressure and it takes its toll on Chacarra, but Laporta is playing for a PGA Tour card and made some costly mistakes seven days ago.
There's much to play for in Sunday's final round and it'll be a fantastic conclusion to the DP World Tour season regardless.
Posted at 15:55 GMT on 14/11/25
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