Golf betting tips: Dave Tindall's Qatar Masters preview and best bets
The DP World Tour returns to the Middle East for the final event of the ‘regular season’ and Dave Tindall has five picks to shine at Doha GC.
Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters
1pt e.w. Nick Bachem at 66/1 (bet365, Skybet, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adri Arnaus at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello at 100/1 (Skybet, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Marcus Armitage at 80/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
An event once completed with calendars still displaying January, the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters has gradually slid down the schedule in recent years. In 2018, Eddie Pepperell took victory in February while the last four winners - Justin Harding, Jorge Campillo, Antoine Rozner and Ewen Ferguson - all hoisted the trophy in March.
But now comes a huge date shift as the tournament pops up somewhat unexpectedly in late October. Not only that, it takes on a new significance as the final tournament of the ‘regular season’. This is the last chance players have to secure their cards for 2024 via the Race to Dubai rankings while it also offers a final opportunity to make it into the Nedbank Golf Challenge in a fortnight’s time.
The Peter Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club has been the regular host since Sky Sports commentator Andrew Coltart took the inaugural edition in 1998. Note that Campillo (2020) and Rozner (2021) won at Education City, a less exposed track than Doha.
It’s tempting to throw that form out of the window or certainly give it less weighting but Education City was covered in Paspalum - the same grass that was used when the greens at Doha were resurfaced in 2019. Previously they’d been Bermuda.
That brings in more useful correlations with other Paspalum Middle East tracks such as the Saudi International and the Oman Open while it’s worth remembering how many Open champions have won/performed strongly in Doha, the common factor pretty obvious: wind.
In many ways, Ewen Ferguson’s win here last year highlighted all of the above points. As a Scotsman he grew up in windy, links conditions while he was making his course debut so had no adjustments to make in his mind about how the ‘old’ Doha played.
Runner-up Chase Hanna was also a first-timer at the course although third-placed Marcus Kinhult had also made the top three previously while fifth-placed Justin Harding had won on his last visit to Doha GC in 2019. In other words, newbies can solve the puzzle straight away while course horses won’t be bamboozled by the changes. Consider both.
Bachem can win again
One from the newbies camp that has to be considered is NICK BACHEM - a winner at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa back in March.
What fuels the idea that Bachem can shine here on debut is the wide range of countries and venues where he’s performed strongly. The German has Pro Tour wins in Morocco and Egypt while in the last couple of months he’s finished fourth at the Czech Masters, seventh in the Irish Open, 20th at the Open de France, 25th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland and 13th at last week’s Andalucia Masters in Spain.
That lot represents all sorts of challenges and Bachem has been up to the test. Basically he’s a very talented golfer playing well wherever he plants his tee.
What skills are needed at the revamped Doha? It’s hard to say to be honest. Ferguson was sixth for Strokes Gained: Putting last year but the next three home didn’t rank better than 30th on the greens. Ferguson lost strokes around them (-0.548) but most of the top 10 had strong SG: Around The Green stats.
Short game can be a real strength of Bachem’s as shown by ATG rankings of 1st in the Open de France, 4th at the Czech Masters and 5th in the Irish Open. And, as we know, few hit the ball as far as he does and that has often been a key weapon on this track.
While Bachem is a bet based on form and pedigree, let’s now lean on some course and correlating form.
MATTHEW JORDAN may already have had the week of his life by finishing in the top 10 in the Open Championship at Hoylake. Jordan was the local lad, who had played the course since the age of seven and he’d even been given the honour of hitting the first tee shot.
Winning here would certainly challenge that giddy high and after a superb amateur career which brought victories in the St Andrews Links Trophy and The Lytham Trophy, he can clearly excel on the links.
It makes sense then that Jordan’s one start at Doha resulted in an excellent tied fifth last year. Rounds of 69, 69, 70 actually gave him a piece of the 54-hole lead before he struggled under the gun on Sunday.
Still, that was a hugely positive week and, expanding the lens, he’s made nine cuts out of nine in the United Arab Emirates including a pair of top 20s earlier this year at the Dubai Desert Classic and the Ras Al Khaimah Championship where he was also 13th in 2022. Another top 20 can be found in his one start in the Oman Open.
As for current form, the 27-year-old suffered a predictable dip after his Hoylake heroics but overcame a slow start to finish tied 13th in last week’s Andalucia Masters, only four players beating his closing 68 in testing conditions.
It seems appropriate someone called Jordan should excel in the Middle East and 66/1 with eight payout places is definitely worth a play.
Spanish duo can excel again in the desert
ADRI ARNAUS showed his liking for a Paspalum course in the region when taking tied third in the 2022 Saudi International at Royal Greens. That finish looks even better when remembering the field quality and noting that Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Cam Smith, Bubba Watson, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann and Harold Varner also finished in the top 10 that week.
His top three is part of a strong body of work in the desert and if focusing on courses in the United Arab Emirates that feature Paspalum greens the eyes widen further. He’s been a stud at Al Hamra, winning the 2018 Challenge Tour Grand Final and recording top 10s in the two Ras al Khaimah events while he added another top 20 at Yas Links in the 2022 Abu Dhabi Championship.
If taking into account all Arnaus’s appearances in the UAE since January 2020, his results really are outstanding. In 13 starts, he’s recorded 10 top 20s and six of those double as top 10s. His latest was tied sixth in the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February.
He’s had just two cracks at Doha but the first of those in 2019 produced another fine display: tied 14th. The change to Paspalum greens suggests he can improve on that effort and get in the payout places.
After a real loss of form since March, he’s perked up noticeably in the last month or so by making four cuts out of four. That run includes 14th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship which nods to some links form and 19th in last week’s Andalucia Masters which included a Saturday 65. With the putter hot, Arnaus is in great shape for another big week in a part of the globe where he always thrives.
Spaniards have a strong record in the desert and scroll down the list of winners and runners-up in this event and the red and yellow flag appears plenty of times. So I’ll add a second to the staking plan.
RAFA CABRERA BELLO has been a regular on leaderboards in the Middle East over the last decade and more and the second of his four DP World Tour wins came in the 2012 Dubai Desert Classic.
His record in the UAE is littered with further top 10s and he also has second places in both the DDC and the Abu Dhabi Championship, the latter coming as recently as last year.
It’s been a rather miserable season for the former Ryder Cup man in 2023 and at one point between July and September he missed six straight cuts. But since that ugly stretch he’s made each of his last five, landing a top 20 in the Open de France.
Wind back to the start of 2023 and there was some good stuff there too and it’s no surprise that it came out in the desert. He was tied 10th in Abu Dhabi and two starts later posted tied 13th in the Ras al Khaimah Championship.
The easiest sell of Cabrera Bello at a three-figure price is by focusing on his excellent course record. Between 2011 and 2017 his seven starts in Doha produced a second, two thirds, a sixth and nothing outside the top 35. This will be his first appearance since that sixth place six years ago.
He’ll see some changes this time but his record on the Desert Swing is stellar and the last time he encountered Paspalum greens he showed his liking for them by finishing fifth in February’s Thailand Classic at Amata Spring. Take the 100/1.
Chris Wood won here in 2013 and Eddie Pepperell in 2018 so how about another Englishman adding to that five-year cycle. Matthew Jordan is already in the staking plan but I’ll close it with the addition of MARCUS ARMITAGE.
A winner of the Porsche European Open in Germany two years ago, the 36-year-old went close to a second win when runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship earlier this month.
That strong display on the links suggests he might have a good past record in Doha and a quick check shows that flashing away via a fifth here last year. Armitage also made the top dozen when the event was staged at Education City in 2020.
Since the start of 2021 he’s made the top 20 in half of his starts in the United Arab Emirates, clocking those finishes in the Dubai Desert Classic, the Dubai Championship, the DP World Tour Championship and the Ras al Khaimah Classic.
The battle for a golfer is so often a mental one so Armitage’s quotes after his 68 at St Andrews a few weeks ago make interesting reading. “It’s been a tough year for me. I’ve missed I think seven cuts by one shot. I've been getting a bit bogged down in results and been a bit emotional with it all.
“I went back to my old swing coach after missing the cut at Wentworth. Had a bit of a chat with him. Not working full-time yet but he's given a bit of advice. He's gotten me to a place where I feel in a good place. And then doing a lot of work with Duncan McCarthy, my performance and mental coach on putting and everything.”
More positive results were seen last week where he walked away with tied 13th in the Andalucia Masters and back in conditions he clearly likes, Armitage is capable of a big show.
Posted at 1030 BST on 24/10/23
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