Golf betting tips: CJ Cup Byron Nelson Final Round Preview
Taylor Pendrith is the new leader in Texas but Dave Tindall is looking elsewhere for his winner in Sunday’s final round.
Golf betting tips: CJ Cup Byron Nelson Final Round
2pts win Matt Wallace at 13/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 14/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/4 1,2,3)
Thanks to a pair of back-to-back eagles in a third-round 63, Taylor Pendrith is now in pole position to do something he hasn’t managed in his first 73 PGA Tour starts. The Canadian is just over 2/1 to get that elusive first win and given that he’s played the combined 27 holes of the front nine in 14-under so far this week, there’s a fair chance he extends his lead and stays there.
Halfway pacesetter Jake Knapp couldn’t quite keep up the relentless pace of two opening 64s but he’s one behind Pendrith’s 19-under via a 67. Knapp does know how to win having captured February’s Mexico Open with 19-under. He’s a close-up second favourite at about 13/5 to become just the second rookie to win twice in the same season since Xander Schauffele in 2017.
There’s not a great deal of history at TPC Craig Ranch but at least in the three previous editions there’s hope for those lurking just off the pace. It’ll take a low one but they’re out there and the stats after three rounds show we’ve had 38 eagles and 1,640 birdies.
Flicking through the history books, Sung Kang converted a three-shot lead in 2019 but the last three champions were all chasing. KH Lee came from one back (2021) and three back (2022) in his two wins while Jason Day was two behind before edging home by a shot in 2023. Their respective positions on the leaderboard: 2nd (Lee), 6th (Lee) and 4th (Day).
Ben Kohles, the 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year, is just two behind although he might have played more PGA Tour events than many think. This is his 68th with a best of tied fifth. That PB will surely change soon and 10/1 is certainly worth a look.
MATT WALLACE is possibly the hardest player to predict on the PGA Tour. He can look way off it but then suddenly pop. A runner-up at the DP World Tour Championship in November, he’s managed one top 30 on the PGA Tour in 10 starts this season, a T17 at the Valspar. Five of those were missed cuts and yet here he is within two and looking at a second PGA Tour win following his Corales Puntacana success in May 2023.
A confident sort, he made this observation after his third-round 67: “I don’t know how many people around me that have won more tournaments around the world than myself. Not that that’s a big brag, but I feel like I know how to get the job done.
“It’s the best I felt off the tee in probably forever. Yeah, I’m just hitting the ball so well with so much confidence and freedom, and the course lends itself for that. I’ve also ripped some of the hard holes, like 12.”
Wallace, who set the pace with a Thursday 63, added: “Really happy with my ball striking display and just need to clear up the putting a bit.” The stats back that up. He’s 1st for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green but 44th in SG: Putting. In round three, he ranked 2nd for SG: Approach.
With five Alps Tour wins in 2016 and four DP World Tour victories in a 16-month burst, the 34-year-old’s comment about knowing how to get the job done does hold water. And with that 2023 Corales success relatively fresh in the memory, I’ll back him here for the win at 13/2 with bet365.
Perusing the rest of the leaderboard, ALEX NOREN and Kelly Kraft are at 15-under, the Swede and the American four back. Kraft is making just his third start of 2024 although did manage 11th in last week’s Zurich Classic pairs event. But add in course form of 79-MC-MC and a woeful record in Texas and it’s hard to see him being last man standing.
But it’s a very different story for Noren. The 10-time DP World Tour winner is still seeking a first victory Stateside but the knocks at the door are consistent. He was well backed from the off here at around 25/1 thanks to a run of five straight top 25s on the PGA Tour and two previous good knocks at TPC Craig Ranch: 12th on his last visit in 2022 and 21st on debut in 2021.
He’ll be kicking himself a little that he isn’t closer than four. A 5-3-5 finish (bogey-par-par) meant he played the final three holes in 1-over rather than the fairly common 1-under but the 41-year-old has seen enough in the game not to be thrown. Noren shot a closing 64 here two years ago. Add that to a Friday 63 that year along with an opening 64 this week and the man who once won the BMW PGA Championship with a Sunday 62 can sprout wings in round four. Back him each-way at 14s (three places).
Sergio Garcia has landed this event twice and Americans have won only five of the last 15 editions. That bodes well for Wallace and Noren. South Koreans have triumphed in three of the last four and if picking from further down the betting the one to look at would be Byeong Hun An, who closed with an eagle in his Saturday 66 to finish five back in tied seventh.
An is 25s in the outrights and I’d also think about him at 4/1 to finish Top 4 (bet365). He looks tempting at 21/20 to win his three-ball against Kevin Tway and Vince Whaley but beware of 5/2 Tway. The American has come back to form with third (Corales Puntacana) and 11th (Zurich Classic) in the last two weeks and shot a 63 in round four here last year to finish 11th.
Posted at 0915 BST on 05/05/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
Next Off
Fixtures & Results
