Matt Cooper has two selections for the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational where drying greens are expected to make scoring difficult.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational final round
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Daniel Berger for a top-10 finish at 5/1 (bet365)
Through to the end of 2021 Collin Morikawa was something of a wonder in the professional ranks. His 64 tour starts up to December of that year reaped six wins, two of them were major championships, and he looked indomitable when contending. In the 70 tournaments since the start of 2022, however, he has just the one win and has been consistently vulnerable in sight of the finish line.
It has to be notable, therefore, that when he carded a Saturday 5-under-par 67 to grab the 54-hole lead in the Arnold Palmer Invitational on 10-under 206 he said: “It’s been a while since I’ve hit my irons like this, it honestly has. We’re looking all the way back to 2021, essentially.”
He leads the field for Strokes Gained Approach which backs up the quality of his irons and he also acknowledged that this week’s performance is something he believed possible. “This was one of my first professional starts as an amateur,” he said. “I love the golf course. I thought I would play well here. Hasn’t been the case. But it also hasn’t been the case that I’ve come feeling ready.”
In all, he’s played Bay Hill four times with three failures to break the top 60 and no round in the 60s. This week he’s gone sub-70 twice and can improve on his best finish of ninth in 2020.
From a betting point of view, however, the price of 21/20 is not especially appealing. Morikawa is talking up his irons but that frailty remains and two elements of the conditions are a concern. The first is that the greens are becoming rock-hard and shiny, and he isn’t the finest putter. The second is that the wind is set to be blustery. True, his quality long game could negotiate that latter difficulty, but a touch over evens is not an attractive price to hope that is the case.
Russell Henley is alone in second on 9-under, Corey Conners solo third on 8-under and Jason Day is fourth on 7-under. Michael Kim and Tony Finau are two shots further back on 5-under with Andrew Novak, Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry sharing seventh on 4-under.
Saturday provided the Irishman Lowry with a chastening experience. He had long-standing problems with Bay Hill until last year missing four cuts before adding T67. Last year, a first round 66 propelled him to third and, following consistently good recent form, he was a popular pick at a tasty price. Opening rounds of 69-67 had him in the lead whereupon he reverted to pre-2024 Bay Hill form and added a 76 to tumble backwards.
Does he have any hope of bouncing back? He’ll have to think of his fellow European Francesco Molinari who won from T17 and five strokes back in 2019. The Italian is the only winner to have emerged from outside the top five (and ties) with 18 holes to play at Bay Hill since 1996.
Henley has a career in-contention record that is reminiscent of Morikawa’s. The first 10 times he found himself top five with 18 holes to play he always finished in the top six and registered five wins. The last 22 times it has happened he’s six times toppled outside the top 10 and won just twice. He was third at this stage last week at PGA National and never got going in finishing sixth. Fresh memories of failure can often be helpful and he was fourth at Bay Hill last year, but 3/1 is not quite tempting enough.
Conners didn’t miss a cut from June 2023 to the first week of this year. A handful of those events were no-cut but it was still impressive. Then he missed the cut at the Sony Open and didn’t impress at the weekend in his next two starts. A closing 67 in the Genesis Invitational turned things round and he’s carried it into this week. He’s finished 3-11-21-18 in his last four Bay Hill appearances. He’s another who doesn’t quite win as often as he might and 13/2 isn’t as persuasive as being on the from the start having taken note of that 67 would have been.
Bay Hill is often talked of as being “major-like”. The rough is gnarly, the greens hard to hit, those putting surfaces shiny and lethal, the wind blustery and capricious. Scoring in the final round is difficult and the top three know it. Morikawa has carded 73-75 on Sunday. Henley’s record reads 73-77-75-74-72 and Conners has signed for 74-74-72-74.
Might this give the Aussie JASON DAY a chance? He’s played the course nine times on a Sunday and has experienced everything. His first two visits saw him shoot 75 and 77, in 2021 he needed 79 blows and last year 73. But he also carded a 68 in 2015 and has three times shot 70 including when he won in 2016.
He was third in The American Express when contending all week so has recent exposure to leaderboard pressure and his last win, the 2023 Byron Nelson, came from fourth with 18 holes to play. He’s back with his old coach Colin Swatton and the early results are mixed. He reported Friday was “tremendous” and Thursday “horrific”. But he also knows that Sunday requires “survival” golf. We’ll take the 12/1 each way.
Nothing stands out in the two-balls so we’ll take DANIEL BERGER to maintain his upward trajectory and land a top 10 at 5/1 with the “upward trajectory” being in terms of both form and for the week.
After grinding away post-injury he has started to look like his old self in recent months. He was second at Sea Island and also at TPC Scottsdale. Last week he was top 10 all week before toppling back to T25 in the final round. This week has the possibility of being a reverse: he opened with a 78 and since added 69-68. He’s T17 and two shots outside the top 10. He can hang tough and sneak in there.
Posted at 1030 GMT on 09/03/25
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