The Open is under way but when it comes to working out who might win it, the battle continues. Here, we provide historical in-play analysis.
How far back can you be after round one?
- Key stat: Every winner this century was within five of the lead
When we talk about pressure in golf, it almost always relates to how a player who has carved out a winning opportunity responds to that on Sunday. But what about Thursday? There's pressure here too: deep down, golfers know that while a fast start isn't essential, a good one is all but. Over the last 30 years, 22 of 29 Open champions were inside the top 10 after round one, and 28 were within five of the lead.
An interesting Birkdale note is that two of the seven who were worse than 10th came here, in 1998 and 2008, and that Mark O'Meara was seven back after the opening round. However, this comes with a significant caveat. Both renewals featured extremely bad weather, which is not forecast this week.
The average position of a champion after round one is 10th, but more than half (16/29) were in the top five. To borrow a cliche, you can't win the Open on Thursday, but you can certainly lose it. The highest-profile example on day one of the 2026 renewal was Justin Rose, whose hopes will have to wait another year.
How far back can you be after round two?
- Key stat: Four of the last six Open champions led at halfway
But here's a quirk: five winners had fallen six or more shots behind by the end of round two, the most recent example being Xander Schauffele at Troon. Nevertheless, the average position of a champion after 36 holes goes up to fifth and four of the last six were in front at halfway.
There have been 23 clear leaders at this point since 1996, and nine of them won. Among the failures was Jean van de Velde, but the biggest blowout came from Dustin Johnson, who shot 75-75 to fall from first to 49th at St Andrews in 2015.
If there is a wide-margin leader at this stage, we might be in for a procession. Five players led by three or more and none of them were headed thereafter. Four of the five won by five or more strokes, the exception Rory McIlroy in 2014.
How far back can you be after round three?
- Key stat: 28 of the last 29 winners were inside the top 10
Now we get into the thick of it and 15 of 29 champions were either leading or tied for the lead. Just one, Paul Lawrie in 1999, came from outside the top 10 and just one more, Phil Mickelson in 2013, was worse than sixth. Chances from behind depend more on how many players there are to pass than how many shots there are to make up and any more than five at this stage has tended to be insurmountable.
Lawrie was famously 10 strokes off the lead but almost a third of champions (9/29) were three or more off the pace. It's just that beyond Mickelson and Lawrie, they didn't have many players in front of them. Even Ernie Els, who won without a play-off having trailed by six, was in fifth place. In 2007, Padraig Harrington was in third place but six behind.
The message here is that anyone in the top five entering Sunday has a chance, but the numbers suggest that any more than four players ahead of you represents too many. That should be considered more significant than the margin, albeit there are of course exceptions and wide-margin leaders have generally won with a degree of comfort, including Brian Harman, Shane Lowry and Louis Oosthuizen since 2010.
Clear 54-hole leaders are common in the Open, with 25 of the last 29 renewals featuring one. The worst finish among them is third place and the largest surrendered lead is van de Velde's five strokes. Adam Scott was four ahead when reeled in by Els and Sergio Garcia led by three when Harrington beat him in a play-off. But they have a 56% strike-rate, which is higher than the 50% across the two main men's tours during the same period. That strike-rate goes up to 72% when the lead is three or more strokes.
Of the four majors, this one ranks third in terms of ease of converting leads, with the Masters (smaller field with fewer surprise contenders) showing the best strike-rate followed by the PGA Championship (arguably the most resemblant of a standard PGA Tour event). The Open has been slightly easier to win from the front than the US Open, but the margin is negligible.
Summary
Majors simply aren't often won from a long way behind.
Recently, the only instance of a player having started the final round well off the pace and gone on to win came at the 2022 PGA Championship, where Justin Thomas covered a seven-shot deficit to win in extra holes. The last time such a gap was covered in the Open was at the end of the last century, when Paul Lawrie came from a record 10 shots back.
Given that these two majors might be the most famous examples of a player throwing the tournament away, in Jean van de Velde and Mito Pereira, we should be clear how much needs to happen for more history to be made.
If there's a takeaway from the Open it's that Saturday, known as 'Moving Day' in golf circles, represents the last chance saloon. Two of the last seven champions and three since 2012 were six or more shots off the pace. At a firm Birkdale this week, perhaps we'll see some earlier starters make a run before the leaders battle a fiery golf course late in the day.
Finally, the above makes me realise how good players are at handling pressure, ultimately. Wide-margin winners have gone on to win by wide margins, broadly speaking, some of them far from the biggest names in golf. Unless said player happens to be one of your favourites, I think it's fair to say we'd all rather avoid such a scenario in the final major until next April.
