Europe Ryder Cup wild card picks analysis: Who will make the European team?

How does qualifying work?

Qualification for the European team is more complicated than it is for the United States.

For European players, there are two points lists, from each of which three players will make the side.

The first is European points, currently topped by Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

The second is World points, led by the same two players but in reverse order. However, as they are currently qualifying via the primary European list, they are ignored from World points calculations.

Presently, players ranked third, fourth and fifth in that list would qualify, and that looks likely to remain the case.

European points are available for three remaining DP World Tour events. The first of them carries 1,500 points in total, the final two offering 2,500 points.

In both the Czech and European Masters, the winner will receive 460 points. In the ISPS Handa World Invitational, that figure is just 264 points.

The top six

RORY MCILROY and JON RAHM have both already qualified from the European points list.

Rahm has roughly twice the number of points of third-placed ROBERT MACINTYRE, a lead of almost 1,700 points, and MacIntyre can earn only 1,184 should he win each of the remaining three events.

On the World points list, which is an accumulation of Official World Golf Ranking points, VIKTOR HOVLAND boasted a healthy lead over TYRRELL HATTON and TOMMY FLEETWOOD heading into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

All three on the World points list are certain to be named among the 12 regardless, and among the current automatic qualifiers, only MacIntyre remains unsure of his place.

The other certainties

As well as the five named above, MATT FITZPATRICK and SHANE LOWRY will also make the side.

Both are major champions and Lowry's failure to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs paints an inaccurate picture of his season – at 34th in strokes-gained total on the PGA Tour, he ranked above all potential European candidates bar those who are sure to be named and JUSTIN ROSE, with the exception of Stephan Jaeger who does not hold DP World Tour membership.

Lowry is in the field for the Czech Masters but rather than that being seen to demonstrate any concern about his place among the 12, he may feel that playing there is the best way to prepare for the Irish Open followed by a title defence in the BMW PGA Championship.

Rose is considered the eighth man by many. Victory at Pebble Beach marked a return to form and four top-10s since include The PLAYERS and the PGA Championship, with his run of missed cuts under links conditions easy enough to overlook.

With the reformatted FedEx Cup Playoffs, Rose cannot miss another cut and is guaranteed to play in both the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship.

Only a string of very poor rounds could place him under real threat and he should be considered the closest thing to a certainty as things stand.

The final four places

Based on the assumptions made above, Europe has four places available – but it's likely that one of them is via automatic qualification, three as wild cards. Third place in the European points list, currently occupied by MACINTYRE, is firmly up for grabs.

MacIntyre's chief threat may emerge not from YANNIK PAUL in fourth, but ADRIAN MERONK in fifth. It is notable however that neither is in the field for the ISPS Handa World Invitational, and were MacIntyre to win it in their absence, his grip on third place would be extremely strong.

It's well known that MacIntyre's sole ambition for the year was to make the side in Rome, something that's looked likely since he won at the host course last September. Had he not had his pocket picked in the Scottish Open that ambition would have already been fulfilled, nevertheless second place to McIlroy might have effectively sealed the deal.

Should he play to a decent standard over the next three weeks and remain in good health, MacIntyre will achieve his goal. He was very close to being placed in the certainties category.

Luke Donald may therefore hope MacIntyre does qualify in third place. With all due respect to Paul, a regular contender this year, he is unlikely to be picked should he fail to make the side, and Donald would rather have that choice than for the German to sneak in ahead of MacIntyre.

Donald would surely prefer to choose Meronk over Paul, especially as the Pole succeeded MacIntyre as the Italian Open champion earlier this year. Also runner-up at Marco Simone in 2021, the player who holed the winning putt in the Hero Cup back in January should be set to make more history for Poland providing his game remains in the sort of shape it's been for the best part of two years.

Moving to the World points list and it's possible that SEPP STRAKA qualifies. His runner-up finish in the Open, which followed victory at the John Deere Classic, dramatically improved his prospects of making the side. He must surely now sit above SEAMUS POWER in the pecking order, with both guaranteed eight more rounds on the PGA Tour and in position to extend that to 12.

Straka's dual citizenship and strong Georgia accent could make him a slightly awkward option in some ways and I was of the view he would not be selected if there was any doubt. However, PGA Tour and major form is hard to ignore and Donald may feel that the Austrian has forced his hand.

Power, by contrast, has struggled for most of the year, failing to produce a single top-10 finish and missing the cut in three of the four majors. Like Straka, he hasn't been over to Italy to play tournament golf at the course and neither man was particularly impressive at the Hero Cup. Straka, though, has found form. At the time of writing, Power has not.

In anticipation of the Irishman missing out, we are potentially left with one spot and a whole host of candidates, including RASMUS and NICOLAI HOJGAARD, LUDVIG ABERG, VICTOR PEREZ, ADRIAN OTAEGUI, ALEX NOREN, and really any European player who can produce something over these next three weeks, including AARON RAI and THOMAS DETRY.

My view has long been that Nicolai's x-factor, not to mention the strength of his recent form and his exploits at Marco Simone, should earn him the nod. Matters though have been complicated by the rapid emergence of Aberg, his own brother's win on home soil, and Noren's improved form.

Perez and Otaegui are in the field for the ISPS Handa World Invitational, where the likes of TOM MCKIBBIN and EWEN FERGUSON could yet emerge as candidates.

It should also be noted that JORDAN SMITH, JORGE CAMPILLO, JOOST LUITEN, MARCEL SIEM, THOBJORN OLESEN, ANTOINE ROZNER, PABLO LARRAZABAL and ALEX BJORK each has upwards of 1,000 European points, which means winning back-to-back in Prague and Crans could see them qualify automatically.

Just as the FedEx Cup Playoffs will determine plenty on the US side, so will the next three events in Europe as far as Donald's dozen goes.

After that, the captain will have to hope that whoever does miss out narrowly doesn't go on to win the BMW PGA Championship and leave everyone wondering why the biggest European event this side of the Ryder Cup has no bearing on the team.

Predicted line-up

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jon Rahm
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Tyrrell Hatton
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Shane Lowry
8. Justin Rose
9. Robert MacIntyre
10. Adrian Meronk
11. Sepp Straka
12. Nicolai Hojgaard

I would like to point out the distinction between the words predicted and preferred. Stubbornly, any dip in Straka's form over the next few weeks and I would prefer to see Europe overlook him. But as far as predicting the side goes, I have to acknowledge that right now he's odds-on to feature.

In that scenario, and the expectation that MacIntyre either qualifies or is the first name on the wild card list, I'm left with two places. They are awarded to the prodigious drivers and course winners Meronk and Nicolai Hojgaard, the latter having generally outperformed his brother this year despite Rasmus's heroics on home soil.

Without knowing how the next few weeks will play out, the player I'd choose to include at Straka's expense is Aberg, the amateur stud who has quickly adapted to life on the PGA Tour. I felt in the spring that suggestions he'd emerge as a Ryder Cup candidate were over the top, but he's won me over with a string of excellent displays.

For context, his strokes-gained total figure from 12 PGA Tour starts is roughly the equivalent of Jordan Spieth's, placing him between Rose and Lowry and slightly ahead of Hojgaard, who has also played plenty of golf on the PGA Tour this year. I would note that both would rank significantly higher than Straka, higher still than Power, were their total number of rounds sufficient to qualify.

Such numbers are imperfect in terms of measuring players against each other, but the way these two drive the ball is also a factor in their favour. Two of the three Italian Opens held at Marco Simone went to the best driver, Nicolai one of them in 2021, and Aberg already looks like one of the best in the world off the tee.

You could argue that Europe has two of the best already in McIlroy and Rahm and plenty more who have driven the ball really well this year (Hovland, Hatton, Fleetwood, Lowry, Fitzpatrick), so they may benefit from someone like Noren whose short-game sets him apart, or the approach work of Straka.

Such arguments are entirely fair and, as with the US, Donald is blessed with many good options. Most likely is that he chooses the more sensible ones but a minimum of three rookies appears certain, with four perhaps likely.