Ben Coley's free betting tips for the BMW SA Open

10:24 · THU January 11, 2018

Golf expert Ben Coley is hoping for another overseas winner of the BMW SA Open, with James Morrison fancied along with four huge outsiders.

Organisers of the BMW SA Open were no doubt delighted with the 2017 edition, as Rory McIlroy went above and beyond a promise made to Ernie Els in playing not 72 but 75 holes, eventually losing a play-off to Hartlepool's Graeme Storm.

Now, though, with McIlroy having done his duty and the biggest European names far from household, they will want to see a South African get their hands on this trophy for just the second time since Hennie Otto held on grimly to get the better of Bernd Wiesberger at Serengeti way back in 2011.

We're used to seeing the home contingent dominate the Alfred Dunhill (six consecutive winners), Tshwane Open (four out of five) and Joburg Open (seven from 10), while the three editions of the Volvo Golf Champions staged here all went to South Africans, but two more prestigious titles have proven harder to win.

Of this one, Thomas Aiken said, "I think this is the most important tournament outside the majors for every South African player", a viewpoint echoed by Branden Grace, who added: "As a South African this is the one tournament you want to win."

The other event, of course, is the Nedbank Golf Challenge, dubbed 'Africa's major' and won by Grace before Christmas - the first South African champion since Trevor Immelman a decade earlier.

Branden Grace wins the Nedbank Golf Challenge

It seems clear to me that while the strength of the overseas challenge accounts for the international dominance at Sun City, the lack of home winners of the SA Open - notwithstanding Brandon Stone's sublime effort a couple of years back - has much to do with the importance of the event.

Twice, Charl Schwartzel has blown golden opportunities; once when carding a triple-bogey six having just moved into the lead, and then when unable to convert from five clear though three rounds. On the latter occasion, Schwartzel dropped four shots over the closing five holes and was then beaten by Andy Sullivan's sensational birdie in the play-off.

Doubts must remain over Schwartzel, but Grace's prospects are obvious. His victory at Sun City was a reminder that he's one of those rare golfers who steps up a notch in contention and it came under the sort of tough conditions expected this week. A year ago, Glendower played long and soft but head greenkeeper Mike Burnard is aiming for thicker rough and slicker greens this time, something he's achieved according to early reports despite a deluge of rain in December.

Grace's form at the course is 8-15-4, the former in the Sunshine Tour's BMG Classic. At this level, he's twice been right up there despite ranking 102nd and 110th for driving accuracy and 45th and 47th for greens hit. Evidently, if he shows just a modicum of control from tee-to-green he should prove the man to beat and 6/1 is more than fair given that he's won six of his last 30 events on home soil dating back to a breakthrough 2012 campaign.

All that being said, Grace complained of rust this time last year and hasn't been seen competitively since mid-November. He's far from alone in that respect, but taking skinny prices about players returning to action from a break does come with risks, regardless of what Dustin Johnson did to the field in Hawaii.

Should Grace prove vulnerable there must be every chance that this title again finds its way overseas and perhaps to England, with James Morrison holding obvious claims.

There will be no marks for originality with this one, as Morrison boasts some of the strongest course form in the field, is a regular contender in South Africa and signed off last season in great shape.

However, with Grace and Schwartzel both trading at single-figure prices we can still take 40s or even a shade bigger and that's just too big to turn down given the lack of depth to the home challenge and absence of star names from abroad.

With form here of 22-15-13, it's pretty clear that the 32-year-old loves the layout at Glendower, where he contended on debut and has sat outside the top 30 after just one of 12 rounds.

He signed off 2017 with sixth place on a golf course new to him in the Joburg Open, adding to fourth in the previous renewal of the same event in February, and his other two visits to this part of the world last year resulted in finishes of 13th and another sixth.

Morrison was particularly impressive from tee-to-green when we last saw him in action and while the Christmas break came absolutely at the wrong time, he's been 15th or better on the last three occasions he's started his year in South Africa.

Although far from prolific, Morrison is more than capable of winning at this level and he's won a prestigious national title, too, having landed the Open de Espana by four shots a couple of seasons ago.

The younger, far less exposed and likely much classier Jordan Smith also comes into calculations at 28/1, having been third here last year and by all accounts tuned up nicely in Dubai of late.

I wonder though whether this will be less of a slugfest - McIlroy, Smith and Dean Burmester chased home Storm last January on a course Els described as 'soft and long' - and as Smith was fairly quiet towards the end of last year, I'm just about willing to look elsewhere on this occasion.

Chris Wood has won events more prestigious than this one and clearly boasts a touch of class, but tends to be one to avoid on his return to action while new dad Lucas Bjerregaard is overlooked for the same reason as Smith despite arriving on the back of a breakout 2017 campaign.

Instead, I'll throw some darts at outsiders in an event won in shock fashion by Mortem Orum Madsen, starting with Edoardo Molinari.

The Italian fired a course-record 63 in the third round here last year on his way to seventh and that puts him on the radar having also hit the frame in this event back in 2009.

Molinari went on to return to the winners' circle last spring, beating Paul Dunne in a play-off for Morocco's Trophee Hassan II, and while there was little else to write home about it's a reminder once more that this former US Amateur champion has an undoubted touch of class.

Considered the most intelligent golfer on the planet and probably by some distance, Molinari has arguably paid the price for taking too much of an analytical approach to his game but there's little doubt that under the instinct-favouring conditions of a Sunday battle, that old winning habit remains.

I know exactly what I need to improve and I’ll work on it extensively in the time off to make sure 2018 will be a really good season. I feel like I am very closing to playing my best golf ever, I just need to iron out a couple of little things and 2018 it’s going to be fun!
— Edoardo Molinari (@DodoMolinari) November 12, 2017

Admittedly, forecasting victory in Morocco would've been difficult but he had finished 11th on his previous start in India some five weeks earlier and it's been six weeks now since he hit the ball as well as he has in some time to finish 31st in Hong Kong, a comparable effort given respective field strengths.

It's speculative in the extreme but having no doubt been working hard during the off-season, the hope is that Molinari can take another step back up the ladder having been borderline world-class six or seven years ago, and if that's the case a championship test like Glendower might provide instant returns.

Since the SA Open switched back to January and the first event of the season for many, you might think that form in pre-Christmas affairs such as the Alfred Dunhill Championship would be far less relevant, but that doesn't appear to have been the case.

Stone had been 18th at Leopard Creek and won a week prior to that on the Sunshine Tour while Storm had been fourth and I'm hopeful therefore that Jinho Choi can pick up where he left off in December.

The Korean progressed from 48th in Hong Kong to 20th in Mauritius and then eighth in the Joburg Open, where he coped with the humidity and altitude factors in ranking eighth for greens hit.

Highly regarded in his youth, Choi's career had to take a back seat as he fulfilled his obligation and undertook military service in 2012, but he says that helped him improve mentally while there was plenty of time to hit balls and prepare for his return to professional golf.

Clearly, he wasn't wrong as Choi won on his seventh start back and has since added three more titles, including a career-best victory in the SK Telecom Open last spring which was soon followed by third in the Korean Open.

All of this winning form is back home and he'll need to improve again to win on foreign soil, but those European Tour efforts towards the end of last year, alongside 36th in the PGA Tour's CJ Cup won by Justin Thomas (admittedly, staged in Korea), suggest that's possible.

Julien Guerrier is another who was firing on all cylinders before Christmas and he too is worth chancing to hit the frame.

The Frenchman won his first two Challenge Tour titles last year, good for sixth on the Road To Oman, and after the second of them continued to operate at a high level with a string of top-30 finishes.

His record in South Africa is strong, with 18th in the Nelson Mandela followed by eighth in a Sunshine Tour event before a narrow missed cut in Joburg, and it looks to me like winning on home soil last summer has helped this former winner of the prestigious Amateur Championship to finally fulfil his undoubted potential.

With several of his compatriots having gone well at altitude in South Africa and all of his wins having come on demanding golf courses, including two on the Alps Tour, Guerrier might be able to pick up where he left off and appears overpriced.

Finally, while Aaron Rai could go really well if this does turn into a test of accuracy, I can't resist Richard Bland at a slightly bigger price.

It's well known that the Southampton pro hasn't yet managed to win at European Tour level, despite a decade and more of trying, but many of his best efforts have come over the last couple of years and there's time yet for that overdue success.

We saw Wade Ormsby cross the line at the 264th attempt in Hong Kong late last year, where he must have drawn on wins for fellow Aussie journeymen in previous renewals, and perhaps Bland can pull off something similar and succeed his good friend, Storm.

Rounds of 65 in two of his final three starts of last season before a very decent effort at Valderrama suggest he's capable of bettering a missed cut here last year and he does have a couple of top-15 finishes in the event, including when contending before a familiarly disappointing Sunday in 2011.

But what really draws me to Bland is the idea that he'll approach this year with the sort of perspective which a longstanding maiden can absolutely benefit from; that winning on the European Tour can now be considered nice, should it happen, but far from everything.

Shortly before Christmas, Bland's brother was taken seriously ill but there has been more positive news since, Bland tweeting: "Just arrived in Dubai. FaceTime with my bruv can’t believe how much he’s improved. Back to work tomorrow. Bring it on".

The idea that Bland may be spurred on to success here is one I really do believe in. Clearly, though, betting takes a distant backseat in all of this and I hope his older brother, Heath, continues to improve on his way to a full recovery.