Adrian Otaegui

BMW PGA Championship golf specials betting tips

Golf

Tue September 15, 2026 · 1h ago

Ben Coley has some DP World Tour stalwarts plus two relative newcomers on his radar from the BMW PGA Championship specials markets.

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA specials

1.5pts Kaneko top Asian, Rosenmuller top German at 9/1 (General)

1.5pts Otaegui top Asian, Rosenmuller top German at 10/1 (General)

0.5pt Otaegui top Asian, Siem top German at 30/1 (General)

0.5pt Kaneko top Asian, Siem top German at 30/1 (General)

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Don't underestimate Americans

Last week's Tuesday revisit was a disaster. The intention, as written on Monday, had been to be able to row in with Shane Lowry at an inflated Betfair Exchange price as that market developed. Then I pored over an hour-by-hour weather forecast and saw an edge on the opposite side of the draw, which backfired spectacularly: there was no such edge, and Lowry won by 11 shots.

It has been that kind of year. This wasn't misfortune, nor was it necessarily a mistake from a process perspective; it was... golf. And as anyone who plays the game will know, you just have to go and find the ball and hit the next shot to the best of your abilities. Some even claim it's possible to forget about the bad shot which came before, but I'm not convinced by that.

Anyway, moving onto Wentworth, there is a player I wrote about on Monday but left out of the staking plan in the hope we'd be able to take a much bigger price than fixed-odds firms are offering. That player is JJ Spaun and while he's not drifted further, as I hoped he might, at the time of writing there's enough liquidity on Betfair Exchange for those so inclined to take prices upwards of 50/1 and as big as 65.0.

This is about the 10th-best player in the field according to DataGolf, but he's 20th in the win-only betting. Spaun's form is more substantive than that of many who are trading under 50.0 and the reasons why he's been forced down the betting appear fickle. Firstly, he had a temporary shoulder issue which forced him to withdraw last time out. Secondly, he's a debutant from the PGA Tour with little experience playing European parkland golf.

Granted, the last debutant to win this was Ben An more than a decade ago, but Billy Horschel is a two-time champion who shows what damage a high-class PGA Tour player can do on the DP World Tour. Not many of them come over and try; among a relatively small cluster, Michael Kim went and picked up the Open de France last year and Ryan Gerard was beaten in a play-off for the Mauritius Open.

Spaun is also a very nice fit for this golf course and while I've not seen full confirmation that he's healthy, he didn't need to come to Wentworth. The DP World Tour shared a video of him playing eight holes (well, they said eight; I counted seven) on Monday, which he did in a serene two-under, and there's no indication he's anything but fit.

He might also feel he still merited a Presidents Cup spot, given that he's a major champion who has won on the PGA Tour again this year, and perhaps he'll be motivated to remind Brandt Snedeker of what he has to offer.

Alex Smalley (90.0) and Bud Cauley (140.0) might also have been underestimated and remember, Smalley chased home Wentworth specialist Aaron Rai in a major back in May. He's since gone 24-16-27 in the FedExCup Playoffs and his seventh at the Wyndham, another tournament Rai has won, correlates nicely with this. Cauley meanwhile won in Canada, succeeding another Wentworth (and major) champion, Ryan Fox.

All three are overpriced on their best form this year. It's going to be fascinating to see whether any of them can overcome slower greens, cooler conditions and a general lack of familiarity with the golf course, but punters who do like to bet on the exchanges should take them seriously at the prices available, particularly Spaun.

Special appeal

In the end there were just two markets that interested me from a specials perspective, top Asian and top German, so I'll combine them for some cross doubles (selection 1 x selection 3, selection 1 x selection 4; selection 2 x selection 3, selection 2 x selection 4).

It's a bit silly to be putting up ADRIAN OTAEGUI for top Asian given that he was born in San Sebastián and represented Spain because he is Spanish until switching his allegiance to the UAE, but we are where we are.

The Pirate therefore avoids Jon Rahm and co in the top Spaniard betting and is one of two against the field in this market instead, the other being KOTA KANEKO.

They're both 4/1 at the time of writing, which makes for a 6/4 shot against six out-of-sorts opponents among whom only Kiradech Aphibarnrat looks a viable threat on paper. It's a 6/4 shot I like a lot.

Otaegui has made his last five cuts at Wentworth, three of the last four ending in top-20 finishes, and this is a good golf course for one who is precise off the tee and excellent with his approaches.

He was poor in Ireland last week but a bad performance under links conditions is easy to excuse, before which he extended a rotten record at Crans. Prior to this, his irons had been firing again and I think he's worth another chance in this more realistic market.

Kaneko though has to be considered the big threat and I'd rather split stakes than select one over the other, as this young Japanese player has a similarly suitable game for Wentworth, and he's better than he's shown in five missed cuts lately, three of them under links conditions.

Second at Rinkven is a particularly compelling form line but first at Kitzbuhel, ninth in Turkey and 11th in Italy also support the idea that he'll like what he sees at a course which you could drop right into Japan without anything seeming out of place.

With Aphibarnrat out of sorts, Wenyi Ding completely lost off the tee and the remainder seemingly hard to fancy, I'd say the prospects of either Otaegui or Kaneko winning this eight-man tournament within a tournament are better than 50:50.

The top German market is headed by THOMAS ROSENMULLER and rightly so, as he's been sixth on his last two DP World Tour starts, both at similar courses. He was a bit disappointing on the Korn Ferry Tour last week but even there, his approach play remained of a high standard.

I can't find any positives for the next three in the betting, which left me wondering if MARCEL SIEM is the danger. He has a couple of top-10s here, struck the ball really well last time out, and had been holing plenty of putts before that club became an issue at Crans.

Marrying things up hasn't been easy for Siem but he has a big course edge over Freddy Schott, Marcel Schneider and Nicolai von Dellingshausen, none of whom is playing well, and I could make a case for him being closer to second-favourite than sixth of sixth in this market.

Playing cross doubles with these four players works out at about 11/4 if you weight the stakes accordingly and that in the end is preferred to the top Asian market alone, but it may depend where you bet as to whether you can play doubles. If you can't, singles on Kaneko and Otaegui would be a confident call.

Posted at 21:10 BST on 15/09/26