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So here we are.
Rory McIlroy has had opportunities, golden opportunities, to win majors: Pinehurst, St Andrews, LA Country Club. But he hasn't actually led one of them going into the final round in more than 10 years. And he hasn't led this one, the final one, since 2011. Of the five chances he's had to tee off last and fend everyone off, that final round 80, his first ever crack at it, is the only time he's failed.
Were this the year 2015, it might seem relatively straightforward, but in the decade since this has become the highest of mountains. Briefly, during the start of round three, we could think about the possibility of a lead so wide that we might begin to assume, rather than hope; that the chief threat might be from a friend, Shane Lowry, or an occasional winner of smaller events, like Corey Conners.
This though is McIlroy, it's the saga of his search for another major of any kind multiplied by his quest to win this one and become only the second golfer in half a century to complete the career grand slam. It was meant to be complicated and, after Pinehurst last summer, maybe it was meant to involve Bryson DeChambeau, the other half of golf's most compelling two-ball.
DeChambeau did plenty wrong while McIlroy was waltzing his way to another round of the day, his second in a row. But somehow, through guts and genius, he made birdies at the 15th, 16th and 18th holes. McIlroy's biggest threat could have been five behind, but the gap is two. It's one hole: it's finding the trees at the first or the bunker at the second or having a pitch to the third roll back to your feet. It is so fragile.
Numbers make McIlroy an overwhelming favourite. He's four-from-five with a lead in majors, two-from-three with a two-shot lead anywhere and that's the same strike-rate, give or take, that he boasts when leading by any margin at this stage. He has always been a good front-runner, which is what he should be: give the best or second or third-best golfer a head start over 18 holes and they should win more often than they lose.
This week's numbers are perhaps even more encouraging. He's first in strokes-gained approach, first in strokes-gained ball-striking, first in strokes-gained tee-to-green. The quality of his approach play has been extraordinary – and DeChambeau ranks as the worst player in the current top 20 in that department. It is meant to be vital to winning the Masters. But McIlroy was meant to have won this by now.
However you dress it, this appears to be a test of resolve, of resilience, of self-belief and determination. There are no technical concerns to dwell upon, only the occasion. Yes, McIlroy can lose this without doing much wrong, because DeChambeau is a fabulous golfer capable of producing the best round of anyone in the field today. But McIlroy can control the outcome here, he can play as he has for 15 of the 16 hours he's spent on the golf course this week. If he does that, he will have done it all.
On Tuesday, I wrote about the Masters and how every day feels like Sunday, until we get one of those great Masters Sundays and realise that's not quite the case. So here we are. Those great Masters Sundays, the one where five players can win it, where we don't know who is going to until the final hole, they can come back another year. Let's have one more where we know the champion by the 16th tee. Let it be McIlroy.
Golf betting tips: The Masters final round
2pts Ludvig Aberg without McIlroy/DeChambeau at 4/1 (General)
1.25pts Patrick Reed without McIlroy/DeChambeau at 15/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Reed and Homa to win their two-balls at 4/1 (William Hill)
2pts Burns and Cantlay to win their two-balls at 5/2 (General)
0.75pt Reed, Homa, Burns and Cantlay at 16/1 (General)
Homa to beat Im
We were unfortunate in opposing Sungjae Im yesterday, Jason Day's bogey to his birdie at the 16th costing us a 4/1 winner. Im chipped in twice, first for eagle and then for birdie, and he also holed a nice putt for bogey at the 12th when his approach had found water. Day would've been a very short price with three holes to play despite all this, but his approach to 16 stayed on top of the ridge.
Im might get through the whole week thanks to his short-game but he's definitely not hitting the ball as well as his leaderboard position indicates and I'm happy to take him on with a player in MAX HOMA who, yes, could blow out completely, but does have undoubted upside at the odds.
Plenty has been said about Homa making this cut and the echoes of Troon last year, when he let out a guttural roar having done so. I was far from convinced he'd press on and make the most of it, but Saturday's three-under 69 was really impressive. His approach play in particular was about as good as he's produced in a year or more and he should be feeling very good heading into Sunday.
Of course, the risk that he can't build on it is very real and I wouldn't be chancing him prices he would've been a year ago, but he's 6/5 and bigger across the board, as big as 8/5 in places, and against a player who has ridden his luck that will more than suffice.
Reed to beat Conners
The 'betting without McIlroy and DeChambeau' markets are interesting because suddenly your leader is Corey Conners and, though he may not feel under immense pressure today, he could very well prove vulnerable at short odds.
My picks are PATRICK REED and LUDVIG ABERG because I'm very happy to oppose Scottie Scheffler, whose long-game still didn't fire in round three as he failed to make inroads. Aberg by contrast moved into fourth, again showing how comfortable he appears to be on the greens, while Reed's short-game fired at last having been a problem earlier in the week.
Taking these two against Conners and Scheffler looks a good way in, with Shane Lowry fuming on exit from the course and Justin Rose's short-game magic running out. That would leave Jason Day and a lurking Xander Schauffele as potential dangermen but Reed and Aberg at about 2/1 combined is my preference.
Reed can also win his two-ball against Conners, who relied a little bit on his putter in round three. That's not usually a strength and with Reed so much more comfortable in this situation, teeing off in the second-to-last group, he should be priced up as clear favourite rather than slight underdog.
Other markets of interest
If you're looking for a bet in the lowest final round market, I would expect it to come from the earlier starters given the situation. That happened last year with Tom Kim carding a 66 and but for McIlroy's brilliance, Zach Johnson would've won this market instead of dead-heating for it yesterday, having been out early and priced up as one of the rank outsiders.
I'd look to someone you really feel could light up the greens and hope the rest falls into place, with Sam Burns and Sahith Theegala both viable options. Theegala finished really strongly on debut two years ago while Burns, who is at least driving it well, has the potential to make everything he looks at on any given day. They're both 50/1 or bigger with Sky Bet and BoyleSports.
Among those at shorter odds, Patrick Cantlay has a 64 to his name at Augusta, while debutant Davis Riley has the ability to stripe his irons and make a lot of putts so he too would be of some interest. This is a guesswork market only offered by a couple of firms, not one to bet into seriously, but those seeking interest have a shortlist there to work with.
BURNS to beat Jaeger and CANTLAY to beat Clark are my two preferred two-ball options among the earliest starters. Burns should be shorter to beat an inferior player in Stephan Jaeger and Cantlay need only avoid disaster at 15 to put a nice score together. Remarkably, he's played it in six-over this week but historically it's been a good hole for him and Wyndham Clark was disappointing yesterday.
Finally, we're definitely still alive in one market at least: top debutant. Davis Thompson moved into second yesterday, two back of Nico Echavarria, and the Colombian with a red-hot short-game might just run up a big number somewhere. I'd be tempted to top up on Thompson but there are other dangers around him and Maverick McNealy isn't out of it yet, either, so we'll stick rather than twist.
Posted at 0955 BST on 13/04/25
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