Johnny Keefer can confirm his potential with a breakout win at a course he knows inside-out according to Ben Coley, who previews the Texas Open.
Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open
2pts e.w. Keith Mitchell at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Johnny Keefer at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Rico Hoey at 66/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. William Mouw at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Billy Horschel at 140/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas at 175/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
If you're a golf fan whose mind is wandering to next Thursday rather than this one, whose ears now prick whenever you hear the notes of Hoppípolla, whose highlight of the sporting calendar is the Masters, just imagine what it feels like to be a world-class golfer right now.
How can the Valero Texas Open exist without being coloured by, and itself helping to colour, what's to come next week? Such is the deal when you're the tournament given this slot, more so perhaps than those which precede the other three majors. We are official on Masters countdown and whatever happens over four days in San Antonio cannot come close to dreams of what might happen in Augusta.
Often in the past it's been easier to separate these events by the simple fact that crossover between them is limited, but that's no longer the case. Between this and last week's event in Houston there are two highly suitable ways to prepare for the Masters; one where you get to put your driver through its paces and this one more rounded and demanding challenge. Few will play both, but either works just fine.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is desert in style, a mid-length par 72 featuring four par-fives and a driveable par-four. It's a bit like Scottsdale in some ways and indeed Summerlin, another desert course which no longer forms part of the rotation, though I've always felt Silverado in California is just as good a guide. Ultimately this is a strong tee-to-green test, intensified sometimes by Texas winds.
One look at the roll-of-honour does the trick. We've two wins for Corey Conners, the archetypal, old-school ball-striker among the game's top 50 or so golfers. Before him, Kevin Chappell could've met the same description and before him so could Brendan Steele. Andrew Landry had pretensions of reaching similar heights in a similar way; Ben Curtis got further, of course, and so did Adam Scott. Flushers the lot of them.
More recently, Akshay Bhatia put on a tee-to-green clinic when he beat Denny McCarthy, whose performance in finishing second was statistically better than many others that have finished first. Then last year, in tough conditions more resembling those Jimmy Walker overcame a decade earlier, Brian Harman was a doggedly annoying front-runner for those in pursuit, much like he'd been in the Open in 2023.
The best way to connect these dots is through approach play, not just in the tournament but in the weeks before it. If we're allowed to overlook a slightly anomalous victory for Harman on account of the weather, the six previous champions had all marked our cards with their iron play on their last measured start. Bhatia had led the field in Houston, shock winner JJ Spaun had been fifth in the Valspar, and bigger shock winner Landry had been eighth in the RBC Heritage.
Ludvig Aberg was my headline selection last year and returns the man to beat, having struck form in Florida and blown a big chance to win The Players. He went to college in Texas and knew this course well enough already when he played on an invite as an amateur, while a third-round 67 two years ago propelled him into the mix and helped set him up for a strong Masters debut. If there's to be an obvious winner, why not him.
The chance of one of those is increased by the presence of Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley and Robert MacIntyre, but the more I look at this tournament, the more I ask myself this: when was it last won by a player with genuine Masters aspirations? The answer is in 2021, but let's not forget Jordan Spieth was working his way back from the lowest lows of his career. He'd have been focused on winning anywhere but had two good reasons to do it here, the other being that he is of course from Texas.
In general, the big names have flattered to deceive, whether that's Rory McIlroy staying on too late twice or Hideki Matsuyama bombing out after a promising start before winning the Masters the following week, and at the prices I'm content to steer clear of them all. That's not to say they made no appeal and it's eye-catching that Morikawa is the same price he was for The Players, but he's here with a bigger goal in mind.
One of the things I think I've been doing wrong is watching promise unfold and cursing that the player is producing it too soon. In other words, the value of the current week's performance has sometimes been diminished in my analysis when often it's among the key pieces of the puzzle.
This is a roundabout, navel-gazing way of saying JOHNNY KEEFER has been on the radar for this since last September, so why on earth should I be annoyed that he hit form in Houston even if that does materially affect his price here in San Antonio?
There's no doubt that there have been and will continue to be instances of isolated performances being overvalued in the market but this is a player with world-class potential whose ceiling we're not close to finding, so the fact that he's 40/1 instead of 66s doesn't mean the value has gone, when the very thing he needed prior to this tournament was to build confidence.
As for why he's been on the list for this, it's a happy marriage of the fact that he's an out-and-out flusher in the Conners and Chappell mould (only of a more modern, stronger kind), and that he's coming back to his adopted hometown and the course at which he's a longtime member.
Not always does this work out – I'm sure all hardened golf bettors can cite examples of home-course advantage proving quite the opposite – but when we're talking about a rookie whose sole previous start in the state of Texas prior to last week saw him win, and who then rediscovered form when returning to Texas to finish third in the Houston Open, it could just prove key.
Keefer is already in the Masters so there's no concern about how that might affect him (the winner will earn an invite if they don't already have one), and having bounced back from a temporary ball-striking funk at Memorial Park, he looks a potential contender here if finding some form of comfort on the greens.
That's far from a given for one plagued by putting problems but rounds three and four of the Houston Open saw him produced a marked step forward and the hope is that a blend of renewed confidence, timing and familiarity helps him find another of those here, with friends and family watching on in support.
He has that recent spike approach play performance to his name having ranked third last week (first for greens hit and strokes-gained tee-to-green) and in an event won by a load of great ball-strikers who often putt hopelessly, let's stick with the plan and hope this fabulous driver is up to the task.
Siding with both Keefer and RICO HOEY on the same week is asking for trouble given their respective putting habits but this does look a nice opportunity for both of them.
Hoey was legitimately second only to Scottie Scheffler from a ball-striking perspective at times last year and a change to the broomhandle putter helped bring about five top-10s in his final 10 starts, with the promise of much more to come.
He's taken a backwards step in 2026 but his best early-season form came in the desert at TPC Scottsdale, which certainly shares some things in common with TPC San Antonio, while more recently he's put together successive top-30s to arrive here with something more sustained to build on.
Rico Hoey’s father reflects on his son's journey to becoming a @PGATOUR member this week at @SonyOpenHawaii pic.twitter.com/BG6qVfICqQ
— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) January 12, 2024
Both came about via top-class driving and while easy to write off Houston last week as suitable, the Valspar was very different yet he was exceptional there too. His irons are improving, he's been solid around the greens, and while losing strokes on them it's been markedly better than we saw back in January and February.
Hoey produced a genuinely excellent putting display at Sawgrass which ought to help his confidence and I do take some heart from the fact that when 14th here on debut, he did hole plenty. That wasn't the case last year but nor was he particularly poor, the damage instead done off the tee as his approach play was statistically the best of his career.
Going back to that debut 14th, it was his first worthwhile form of his rookie season and it took him months to replicate it, so perhaps there was something particularly suitable about San Antonio. It's certainly a good course for an outstanding driver, one who is long without being inaccurate, and I'd go as far as saying there's no better one for him on paper.
That he's been ninth at Silverado in what was a top-class renewal of the Procore won by Scheffler is another handy pointer and while we're going to have to hope for the best on the greens, there are reasons to be optimistic. Hoey has a good record in Texas and can enhance it if he does get a few more to drop.
Back up the betting, Denny McCarthy, Daniel Berger and KEITH MITCHELL were the trio who appealed and I've narrowly come down on the side of the latter.
We all know the issue with Mitchell and that's the mental side of the game, which in turn explains one win on the PGA Tour so far. He's better than that and can be extremely hard on himself, thus getting into a cycle which has denied him that second win his play merits.
But there's time to put that right and as one of the most complete drivers of the ball in the game, both long and accurate, he's a lovely fit for San Antonio where, so far, he's yet to play badly. Four starts spanning seven years show a worst finish of 26th on debut and progressive form figures of 17-14-12 since then, powered as you'd expect by quality ball-striking.
Perhaps significantly he's also putted well on his last three visits and having improved in that regard last week, while also hitting the ball as well as he usually does, he looks primed to build on 14th place in Houston. That course is by no means a bad one for him, but this one is better and it gives him a genuine chance to qualify for Augusta.
Everyone who isn't there wants to be there but Georgia resident Mitchell, who has made both Masters cuts to date, might find that extra incentive helps on the mental side at a course where players of a similar profile have often been successful. He can be frustrating and backers have to be braced for that, but everything points towards a big performance from a very big talent.
I considered Will Zalatoris, who put in a remarkable display here on the Korn Ferry Tour back in 2020. Zalatoris was 141st after round one but shot 16-under thereafter to finish fifth, that score matching the winner's over 72 holes. Circumstances force him to return as he plays wherever he can on a medical and last week's missed cut, by a single shot, came after eight weeks off.
However, he's short enough for someone prone to wayward driving and still working to find confidence again, so I'll go further down the betting for a trio of outsiders headed by WILLIAM MOUW.
A player I like based on amateur pedigree, Korn Ferry Tour promise and some strong ball-striking numbers, Mouw stormed to victory in the ISCO Championship last summer when finally finding something with the putter.
Seventh a week later and showing plenty more signs of promise before the end of the year, like Hoey he was back down to earth with a bang in January as his iron play fell off a cliff and then the driver followed suit in Phoenix.
A Sunday 61 for the win!
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 13, 2025
Despite entering the day 7 shots back, rookie William Mouw claims his first TOUR victory @ISCOChamp 🏆 pic.twitter.com/6n8xb4QlQQ
However, sixth in the Cognizant Classic was an excellent return to his best thanks largely to quality driving, then he produced more of that at Sawgrass to finish 24th on his debut in The Players Championship.
Wisely choosing to skip the Valspar having been on my radar for that, he returned in Houston where his short-game wasn't good enough and his driving quality was undermined by the golf course. Mouw is plenty long but at he's best he's accurate too, yet despite ranking seventh for fairways he wasn't able to compete with the speed freaks who dominated that leaderboard.
His total driving stats might be more relevant here and read 1-4-5 for his last three tournaments, a sequence which if extended with another single-digit number would set him up for success at the far more penal San Antonio.
He was solid off the tee when 33rd on debut here last year, too, that his first notable effort outside of the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open, and I think this is a really good place for him to get back in the mix. At three-figure prices, Mouw makes stacks of appeal.
Roll the dice with Vegas
And so too does Texas resident JHONATTAN VEGAS, who has solidified the promise he showed first when appearing near the top of the leaderboard at Riviera, then when finishing 18th at Bay Hill.
It had been a poor start to the year for the Venezuelan and a backwards step at Sawgrass might've suggested his performance in the high-class Arnold Palmer was a one-off, but last week he returned to something like that level to finish 14th, ranking ninth with his approaches and 12th in putting.
Recent high-class iron play has been arguably the best pointer in this tournament so it's encouraging his has turned a corner, while he's also gained strokes on the greens in each of his last three starts. For a player who can struggle with putter in hand, the signs there are good.
As for his record here, Vegas has regularly threatened but never gone through with his effort. He's made a fairly modest five cuts in 10 and a couple of those missed have been blowouts, but he was fourth through 54 holes once, defied a slow start for 18th on his second-to-last visit, and has twice been right up there after round one.
His correlating form is also excellent. First at PGA West ties him in with Landry, 10th at Silverado is my favourite form line, 10th at Scottsdale gives us some more desert form, and fifth at Summerlin also goes down as noteworthy.
It's less than a year since Vegas was fifth in the PGA Championship behind Scheffler and that came after a back-to-form 13th place in his adopted home state of Texas. I'm hopeful that after a similar display in Houston last week, he can finally deliver on his promise here in San Antonio.
Finally, I will admit to having gone back and forth on this one but BILLY HORSCHEL is worth chancing at three-figure prices.
He's been working his way back from hip surgery and as you'd perhaps expect his form has been patchy, but 13th place in the Arnold Palmer saw him both start and finish well, and then came another good first round in the Valspar Championship.
With his approach play improving and his putter also having warmed up for a return to the east coast he was one I had an eye on last week, not expecting him to contend in Houston given the profile of the course, but keen to see what he could do.
Missing the cut by a couple almost wasn't enough to give him the benefit of the doubt but he finished off really strongly, his approach play again encouraging, and I can't stress enough how unsuitable that golf course was for him.
This one is far better and he's managed three top-fives down the years, all of them in challenging conditions, so with Gary Woodland's win sure to serve as inspiration I wonder if he can build on these signs of promise now playing somewhere he loves.
It will have hurt to sit on the sidelines and watch The Players but Horschel seemed generally positive when speaking in the weeks prior to it and while this is more speculative that the other two outsiders given their more tangible form, the more I look the more optimistic I become.
At the prices I have to have him on-side instead of local Mac Meissner, the last man off the list in a tricky one to solve.
Posted at 20:00 GMT on 30/03/26
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