Ben Coley's US Open preview has been unlocked for all Sporting Life readers. Find out who our in-form expert is backing for the third men's major of 2025.
Golf betting tips: US Open
5pts win Jon Rahm at 12/1 (General; 16.0 via Betfair Exchange)
3pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
3pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Pebble Beach might be the most iconic, Pinehurst perhaps the most revered, but Oakmont Country Club is the quintessential US Open venue. Thick rough, fast greens, history and hysteria, this place is brazenly, unashamedly difficult. That indeed is its very essence. Come to Oakmont only if you want to be put through golfing hell.
Every week? This would be a reductive rendition of a sport whose very essence is in its variety. For an occasional US Open, it is mouthwatering: rough cut to five inches, mowed to stand tall and hide golf balls; bunkers everywhere there isn't rough; greens twice the speed of a century ago. There aren't many guarantees in golf but we know, for a fact, that the third major championship of the men's season will be brutally difficult.
We also know by now that organisers the USGA like to do what they can to keep scoring high, somewhere around par for the winner if they could choose, and there's sometimes been artifice in that quest. Not here. All they needed to do was choose to come to Oakmont again, for the first time in nine years. Restored by Gil Hanse since, whose remit was to do anything but make Oakmont easier, I can't wait to see it again.
Back in 2016, Dustin Johnson defied another dramatic penalty and the weight of what had gone before to finally win his first major championship, one year after the heartache of Chambers Bay. Johnson was imperious in the end, those final shots a collective act of defiance as he refused this time to be beaten by any one, including himself, or any thing.
At the time we didn't know it, but Johnson triggered a run of US Open champions of a very specific kind: powerful in the extreme. Since 2017 we've had two for Brooks Koepka, two for Bryson DeChambeau, one each for Gary Woodland, Wyndham Clark, and a speed-invested Matt Fitzpatrick. It has become the most predictable of the four men's majors when it comes to the skill set of champions, if not quite the identities of individual winners.
And that to me is the biggest conundrum of this US Open. Oakmont is long enough at 7,372 yards for this to be the case again and so often, the thicker the rough, the greater the advantage of the power hitters. But this is not Winged Foot. Bomb and gouge surely will not work, not in the way it did there, and behind Johnson (18th in driving accuracy) were plenty of shorter, straighter drivers of the golf ball.
The game has changed significantly in less than a decade, but my overriding view is that to conquer this most fearsome of US Open tests, you will again have to drive it well. And that cannot mean missing fairways, or at least not often and not by far. We may very well get that long or longish bias come Sunday, especially given the rain expected early in the week, but accuracy and circumspection have their place.
Those words describe favourite and world number one Scottie Scheffler nicely. It's amazing where we are now versus where we were in April, when Scheffler and Rory McIlroy suddenly looked equals again and were priced as such for the forthcoming PGA which Scheffler went on to win by five, before stretching this electric run to read 1-1-4-1.
Somehow, he's not just back at last year's level but has reached a new one, whereas McIlroy appears to have had his David Duval moment: having climbed Everest, the newest member of golf's grand slam club has realised that the only way is down. Apathetic since Augusta, will last week's jarring missed cut, perhaps his worst performance as a professional, be enough to bring him back around?
I hope and expect that McIlroy will be at his best by the time of the Open at Portrush, but for now Scheffler is rightfully clear at the head of the market. Oakmont, where he narrowly missed the cut as an amateur, is the sort of golf course upon which he thrives, the kind where the questions are uncomplicated but answering them requires the highest standards of patience and control. Nobody is better equipped than he is.
But 11/4 when there's a rotten lie and a four putt around each and every corner? That's not my idea of fun, and fun is what this is all about. At least, it is for those of us watching. And with rain around early in the week to make this tall, thick rough even more lush, I can't contemplate getting stuck into the favourite, nor defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, who may miss one too many a fairway to land a US Open hat-trick.
Rahm ready to take revenge
By contrast, this looks like a dream fit for JON RAHM and he can right the wrongs of his last couple of winning opportunities to capture this title for a second time.
Rahm reminded us all of his dazzling brilliance when making a strong run at Scheffler in last month's PGA Championship, the only player in the field to seriously threaten during the back-nine before a bit of bad luck preceded a series of poor shots as he fell from second to eighth.
That's the second time in less than a year that Rahm has let slip a big opportunity, having capitulated from the lead at the Olympic Games where Scheffler was again the one to benefit, but I don't think we're suddenly talking about someone who has a problem winning golf tournaments, which he did twice on the LIV circuit late last year.
In fact there are some echoes of his performances prior to that 2021 Torrey Pines breakthrough and as so many major champions had recently gone very close, the most recent and vivid example being McIlroy himself, I have no doubt whatsoever that Rahm arrives here as the chief threat to Scheffler.
Oakmont simply looks ideal for him and, like Scheffler and DeChambeau, he does have course experience courtesy of the 2016 US Open. Rahm finished an excellent 23rd as the leading amateur, going on to join Jordan Spieth and later Matt Fitzpatrick in winning this championship having previously earned the low amateur medal.
Of those behind Scheffler in the betting, it's his greater reliability off the tee which marks him down as the one to be on. I really do believe DeChambeau is likely to come unstuck while McIlroy, who has drifted to a big price, arrives not only on the back of something like a career-worst display, but with serious question marks as to what driver goes in the bag and whether he has any confidence in it.
With Xander Schauffele way down the accuracy standings since returning from injury and now almost a year removed from his most recent chance to win anything, Rahm looks the second most likely winner to my eye and while I'd be the first to poke fun at his run of LIV top-10s, last week's saw his long-game really shine.
Better with his irons throughout each of his last five starts, gaining strokes off the tee for more than 20 in a row, dynamite around the greens which could be a massive asset here and good with the putter at the PGA, I think he's set to take revenge on Scheffler and deliver the victory he needs if he's to avoid wasting his prime years messing around on a secondary golf tour rather than testing himself against Scheffler and McIlroy more often.
Win-only is my preference at the price but I should stress that you should be heading to the exchanges for something close to 16/1, rather than effectively pay a place tax with sportsbooks. As ever, it's a matter of doing what you can with what you have available, but anything 10/1 or bigger is considered value regardless.
My staking plan revolves around the driver and you'll know already that it is far less speculative than at the PGA Championship. Simply put, I can't find enough reasons to support anyone down this market but if you play fantasy golf, or are happy playing for a low-key place return at high odds, I'll publish a piece on some dark horses on Tuesday.
For the purposes of this preview there aren't many I need to touch upon, with Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young and Taylor Pendrith closest to selection among those at three-figure prices.
Bhatia is driving it well, form figures of 22-16 represent something of a return to form and he was 16th at Pinehurst last year, while Pendrith hit the frame at the PGA and is at the top of his game. Young meanwhile is driving it much better and having sided with him at 175/1 for the PGA and seen him contend in Canada, I'd have been going in again had he been just a touch bigger. Both he and Pendrith will relish the Pennsylvania rain.
That rain is a key consideration. Without it, I'd have contemplated Russell Henley at 50/1 given his strong US Open record, delicate hands and a top-class piece of winning form this year. I might also have topped up on Shane Lowry, advised at 66/1 antepost, although at half those odds now there's no need to go rushing back in given his problems over short putts, the kind which might be exposed by these fearsome greens.
Back to selections then and LUDVIG ABERG is worth sticking with.
Yes, he was disappointing at the PGA Championship when Friday's round got away from him, but we're getting a similar price here and he might just have found the missing pieces of the puzzle since then.
Remember, Aberg was one behind playing the 71st hole of the Masters, where he contended for the second year running, and having also been in the mix at Pinehurst on his US Open debut he's already built the profile of a major champion in-waiting, especially now that he's won on a major golf course in Torrey Pines.
That world-class display of ball-striking forms part of the case for him here and I do like the way he's started to hit the ball. No doubt, a fall-off in his approach play explains an up-and-down profile so far in 2025, but he striped it through the final round of the Memorial and then, having added the Canadian Open to his schedule, got through so more excellent work there.
But for an ugly and somewhat random quadruple-bogey in round two (Aberg got caught up in some very long grass about five yards left of his intended target) who knows where he might've finished. What we do know is that he ended the tournament on the front foot, gaining about six strokes with his ball-striking over the weekend versus around two over the first two rounds.
Ultimately ranking second off the tee, much better with his approaches and well above-average on the greens, it's no wonder Aberg left Toronto feeling like he'd be ready and raring to go come Thursday. He's been on a scouting mission to Oakmont, liked what he saw, and I believe it's a course where his imperious driving will be a massive weapon.
Look back to 2016, where rainfall means we should have a broadly similar challenge despite Hanse's work on the course, and you'll see that excellent drivers packed that leaderboard. None more so than Johnson, of course, who was powerful and accurate, but we learn more from surprise packages such as early leader Andrew Landry, 12th-placed David Lingmerth, and the handful of other strong, accurate drivers inside that top 20.
I'd be generally against the super-long hitters who can spray the ball around and instead want those like Aberg, who combine impressive power with a relatively high degree of accuracy. Under the forecast conditions that looks to be a winning formula, and both he and Rahm provide echoes of Johnson when he was at his peak.
Aberg will have to limit the mistakes which have been undermining all of his good work but if he does so, this is an outstanding opportunity to contend again.
Still keen on Joaquin
I wouldn't quite buy into the line parroted by many of its players about how LIV Golf is better preparing them for majors, but last week's event on a reasonably tough course in Virginia certainly looks a decent way to warm up for Oakmont and its champion, JOAQUIN NIEMANN, can contend for the first time at this level.
A couple of months ago I told my podcast co-host Sam Harrop that I felt Niemann would play well in the next two majors, both set up for him, and in the end he ensured that statement was at least halfway right by flying home to finish eighth in the PGA Championship.
That was Niemann's first major top-10 and while it's fair to question its real value given that he was never really in the tournament, there are parallels with Max Homa's sneaky top-10 in the 2023 Open, a breakthrough moment he spoke about after contending until late in the day in the following year's Masters.
Joaquin Niemann’s LIV domination continues.
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) June 8, 2025
Win No. 4 on the season. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/u5ia2FfOyT
It's a sign of his confidence that Niemann was underwhelmed by his own performance at Quail Hollow but he sounded equally bullish about the prospect of taking a further step forward here, and I think he can given that he's another superb driver, whose iron play has come a long way, and who has great hands for good measure.
This is the right part of the US. His first win came at the Greenbrier in West Virginia, his latest in Virginia last week, and he's also been second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, third at the demanding and similar Olympia Fields, third at the Memorial, fifth at the Travelers, sixth in the Memorial and eighth in Delaware, largely on bentgrass greens with a poa annua overseed, or poa annua itself.
The greatest achievement of his career to date came when capturing the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, again on poa annua greens (as these are at Oakmont), and having putted better at Quail Hollow than he had at Augusta, and won without the help of his putter last week, he looks primed for his best performance yet in a major championship.
Although yet to be a factor in the US Open, Niemann has made four cuts from four as a pro and his run of cuts made in all majors now stands at five, so I do believe he's getting there. This has long been my idea of the best course for him and providing he's not too wayward off the tee, he'll be a big threat if he gets off to a better start.
Tommy Fleetwood's three top-fives across a range of US Open courses confirms what we know about him, that he's patient and grounded and will stay the course better than many, but in a virtual toss-up between him and PATRICK CANTLAY I've come down on the side of the latter.
Cantlay ranked third in total driving a couple of seasons ago, a statistic which would've helped unearth Landry at huge odds as well as 54-hole leader Lowry, who was upwards of 100/1 when contending for this in 2016.
More recently, Cantlay's total driving stats aren't quite as strong but he's above average in both distance and accuracy and, right now, arrives having gained strokes off the tee in each of his last seven starts. Three of these were top-10 rankings so he's beginning to really fire in that department.
For a while now his approach play has looked just about as good as ever and it'll have been a huge boost to putt so well on the lightning-quick greens of Muirfield Village, where 12th place represented a nice bounce-back from a poor PGA Championship as he returned to the form which had seen him finish fourth in the Truist.
Like Niemann, he's one whose major performances have come under scrutiny but he's cracked the US Open lately, finishing 15th, 14th, 14th and third in his last four and very much emerging as the only real threat to DeChambeau and McIlroy 12 months ago.
He's actually nine from nine in terms of cuts made in the US Open and as another who has saved much of his best for this part of the US, where conditions are often similar to his native California, he's one who I think is primed to produce something like his best golf at Oakmont.
Whether he can get over the line we'll see, but ever since Cantlay confirmed himself one of the best US team golfers at the last Ryder Cup, something he continued through the latest Presidents Cup, I've expected better if he can get himself into contention at a major championship.
Better is what he delivered at Pinehurst and, in the hope that Oakmont proves even more suitable, he can emerge from the shadow of his friend Schauffele and land the major he's always looked up to winning.
Troublingly, Jordan Spieth was on my shortlist given that driver has been a strength of his for a while now, but I was put off by the fact he scored his confidence 'seven out of 10' at the Memorial. Again, he's one we're on antepost, this time for the Open at 66s, and if you're not I'd recommend taking the generally available 50s in the belief that he will continue to improve.
Hideki Matsuyama's sole US Open missed cut came here and he's out of form, Viktor Hovland didn't do enough in the PGA Championship or the Memorial to convince me to go back in and while tempted to buy into the idea that length won't be vital here, the fact is it tends to be in this championship so I have to swerve both Collin Morikawa and Sepp Straka.
That is every player at 50/1 and under covered in some way and, lately, this is where we find major champions. Yes, the 2016 renewal did see many of the big names struggle, but that was a strange time for the sport. Thanks to LIV Golf this one is stranger still, but the last six major champions have been exceptional, and that run will almost certainly be seven come Sunday.
Posted at 1800 BST on 09/06/25
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