Ben Coley has five longshots in his staking plan for The American Express, but fancies Russell Henley to prove a danger to the favourite.
Golf betting tips: The American Express
3pts e.w. Russell Henley at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Max Homa at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Brian Harman at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Seamus Power at 175/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Bud Cauley at 180/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Eric Cole at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
There's a school of thought that says majors are the easiest tournaments to win as a truly elite golfer. It sounds absurd, doesn't it, yet there are reasons to believe that it is true, if not in full then in part.
In essence, the idea is that there are fewer potential winners under more demanding conditions which expose weakness. You can't really fluke your way to a major championship and while I'm not sure you can really fluke your way to a PGA Tour event as such, there are definitely occasions when it feels like the course isn't doing its bit to identify the best players; where the skills gap is narrowed.
That's seldom more so than in The American Express, a tournament where Jon Rahm was once caught cursing the set-up despite the fact that he has actually won the thing twice. This is low-scoring, desert golf played across three courses and if that wasn't enough, the fact that it's a pro-am means pins are generally placed in friendly positions. It's not without challenges but 19-under has been good enough to win just once in 20 years, which says it all.
I would call this if not the least predictable event on the PGA Tour schedule then at least the most volatile, a view supported by Nick Dunlap's victory as an amateur, Adam Long's as a 500/1 Korn Ferry Tour graduate, Andrew Landry's at similarly silly prices, and a Hudson Swafford double. You'd have a hard time reducing a list of viable champions to anything under a hundred and that's just not often the case.
And so we come to Scottie Scheffler, who is drifting towards the price he is to win the Masters in April, despite his biggest danger here being Ben Griffin rather than Rory McIlroy. That says everything about the event. It isn't so much about who the next best golfer in the field is, it's that almost all of them count as potential threats even to the world number one. He might just rock up on his first start since a poor finish to the Hero and win by six, but for now I'm glad he's here to shape the market.
Based on course form the biggest threat is Patrick Cantlay, based on class perhaps Ludvig Aberg, but RUSSELL HENLEY could be the one to down his Ryder Cup playing partner.
We saw last week the perils of backing players off long absences and the advantages of being sharp, with Chris Gotterup having at least played the Hero Challenge and the Grant Thornton Invitational in December, and runner-up Ryan Gerard having been over to Mauritius for a DP World Tour event.
Henley hadn't hit a competitive shot since September and perhaps that showed in Friday's second round, with Sunday's bogey-free 67 representing good progress. Among the 18 players who beat him in Hawaii there was just one, Taylor Pendrith, who had been off for a comparable amount of time.
One week on and Henley might benefit from that just as Cantlay and, to a lesser extent, Aberg both suffer for this being their return appearance, especially as you simply can't afford a quiet round in this. Anyone not on it early has next to no chance – every single winner over the last 25 years has been inside the top 25 at halfway, all bar one better than 20th, and a striking 21 of these champions better than 10th.
You'd think this might be an event for a come-from-behind winner, or at least someone detached after two rounds but with the easier course left to play, yet that hasn't been the case. It's actually a great place for the front-runner and anyone who isn't sharp when the tournament begins may have to make do with preparing for next week instead.
So, no wonder money has come for several of those who played the Sony, but Henley is the exception. He's about twice the price, bigger now than Ben Griffin having been considerably shorter a week ago, and all because of what I feel is a misconception around his suitability to the event. My view is that if he putts well, he'll prove that this in fact suits him down to the ground.
The reason for this is he's the best wedge player in the field not named Scheffler and that's been a huge pointer, as you'd expect it to be. Last year's champion Sepp Straka ended the season ranked fourth from 50-125 yards; his predecessor, Nick Dunlap, ranked 11th for his rookie season and the player he beat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, was seventh. Tom Hoge was 12th the year he finished runner-up, and so it goes on.
Henley's end-of-season rankings in this statistic are an absurd 1-3-1-8-5-5 since 2020 and as one of the most accurate drivers in this field, he ought to be playing plenty of wedges and short irons from the fairway. Based on the fact he led the field in strokes-gained approach on Sunday, we should fancy him to stick plenty of them in close, as he so often does.
Now, there is a reason the market says he doesn't like it here and that's because, on so many of his visits, he's played poorly. But he's not been since 2022 and, significantly, that year he finished a much-improved 14th despite carrying a cold putter. It came after something of a California breakthrough in the previous year's ZOZO and his record here is so much better than it used to be, largely because he is so much better himself.
Having been runner-up at Pete Dye's TPC River Highlands last summer and contended at Harbour Town too, I'm of the view that Henley will be especially comfortable at the Dye-designed Stadium Course which is the toughest of the rotation and hosts two of the four rounds. He's shot 64 and 65 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course before, so if he can crack La Quinta then we could be in business. He's overpriced.
Now, after four speculative outsiders in the Sony Open failed to really threatened the top of the leaderboard I appreciate it would be nice to go into event two of the PGA Tour season with a collection of equally strong fancies from somewhere near Henley in the betting, but I can't find them.
Sam Burns missed the cut the one time he began his season in this, Si Woo's putter is always going to be a worry, and while Staka and Matt Fitzpatrick are big prices on class grounds, again they've been off for six and eight weeks respectively. Among those mentioned the one I keep coming back to is Cantlay – old habits and all that – but he has to make do without his Hawaii primer and didn't play the Hero.
I dare say we'll be playing much further up the betting at Torrey Pines, Scottsdale, Pebble Beach and Riviera, but another go at the outsiders is a must and I can't believe the prices being dangled alongside the name BUD CAULEY.
One of my 10 to watch in a pre-season feature, it felt like Cauley did the groundwork with his comeback season (comeback in the sense of showing us what he's capable of) last year, contending several times in the spring including, crucially, at Sawgrass. That's the original Pete (and Alice) Dye Stadium Course and this one out in California definitely shares some characteristics with it.
Six broken ribs, a collapsed lung, a broken leg and a concussion.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 15, 2026
Bud Cauley was in a life-threatening car accident 8 years ago. After years of perseverance, he enters 2026 qualified for every Signature Event. This is his story. pic.twitter.com/SpFHH0AJ7r
With some solid form at Harbour Town, Louisiana and River Highlands, Cauley has a good record in general on Dye courses and that stretches out here to Palm Springs, where he has two top-fives and two more top-15s in his last five visits. Among these I don't know as he's ever been closer to winning than when tied for the lead late on in 2017, and on his last start six years ago he closed with a round of 65 for fourth place.
This might be dated but that's because Cauley spent chunks of the following four seasons on the sidelines and having been 182nd in the world when last playing in this event, he's now up to 69th and within sight of his best ever ranking, which is 53rd. He'll have his eyes set on going beyond that and finally getting into the Masters, which would be a fine achievement given all he's been through.
A quality iron player, Cauley gained strokes in all departments for 24th place in the Sony Open, his best result yet in a tournament where he's missed four cuts in seven, so that to me looked like an ideal primer. Yes, the AmEx is significantly more competitive, but it's also significantly more suitable and while I'd rather we were on the east coast, the greens here are not like those we'll see at Torrey Pines and Riviera.
SEAMUS POWER is another with a strong record at PGA West, his four starts reading 21-11-MC-14, and having closed with a six-under 64 in the Sony Open he can further enhance it with a first top 10.
Power's putter was terrible last Saturday but good for the rest of the tournament, and I'm really taken with his iron play over the weekend, some of the very best in the field. More of the same and he'll go well here in the desert.
"I've always liked it here," he said on his last visit. "I like the greens, I seem to read them pretty well, that's such a big thing and I feel comfortable doing that."
Wedges have always been a strength, Power ending each season since 2018 better than average in the PGA Tour rankings and as high as 10th last season from 50-125 yards. Also 19th from 125-150, he's one who has the right tools for these three courses providing he's solid off the tee, which for the most part he has been lately.
The Irishman contended here on his last visit and that's what he did in both the RSM Classic and the Bermuda Championship to end last season on the front foot, with his last missed cut on the PGA Tour having come in July. Slowly but surely he's climbing back up the rankings and this two-time winner can build on a promising comeback.
For ERIC COLE, the Sony was a week of frustration as he missed the cut by a shot at a course he likes, having struggled in the wind on Friday.
That will have stung but this is a good place to make amends, as not only has he made all three cuts in the AmEx but he was actually born in the area before moving to Florida. The family would come back to Palm Springs occasionally and he has more experience than most of the courses here.
In a world where elite pros are taking more money to play less golf, Eric Cole has chosen a different path.
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) December 18, 2025
Read more: https://t.co/RsbZud26SM pic.twitter.com/jTN9m9GBn1
Cole also has the game for them, as his strengths are approach play and putting, the former red-hot right now. He's gained over a stroke per round with his irons in four of his last five measured starts, including last week, and just needs to tidy up off the tee to go deep into a tournament.
Hand on heart I used to have this event down as one where strong driving was sneakily important, but it's harder to argue that point after Dunlap beat Bezuidenhout and the likes of Justin Lower and Justin Thomas contended last year. For Cole, whose driving has improved with every tournament start, I don't think we're asking for much except to avoid disaster off the tee.
From there he can get to work and having carded low rounds of 64, 65 and 66 across the three courses, legitimately contending in 2024 having started well on debut a year earlier, he's another at a big price who I could see adding to a long line of such winners.
Ricky Castillo is a Californian whose best effort last year came in a low-scoring desert event, and whose putter has come good lately. He was of interest as a result but the price is no more than fair and I'd rather chance MAX HOMA, even if I am wary of this being a trap I spend the next few months repeatedly falling into.
Homa definitely started to piece things together in the autumn though, signing off with ninth place in Utah where his putter also joined the party, and has since revealed that he's back working with Mark Blackburn. That's the coach who took him to the Ryder Cup and into the mix at the Masters, so it feels like a big step back in the right direction.
For now he's not in the Signature Events, though I expect he'll be invited to at least one of them. Still, Homa wanted to make the top 100 on the FedExFall out of professional pride despite being exempt for a couple more years and he'll have the same approach to the big events coming up, which should mean he's raring to go.
I can't deny that his absence since Utah is a worry, because it is, but he has played TGL and while I'm not about to argue for the merits of hitting a golf ball into a giant computer screen while Tiger Woods is doing banter, these guys are competitors and they'll take it somewhat seriously. Gotterup had played it, remember, and it helps assuage fears over the absence if only to a small degree.
But what we're ultimately doing here is buying into the huge potential upside of a player who has won the Genesis, the Farmers and the Procore in his home state of California, who has played loads of golf here in Palm Springs, and whose record in this event is better than at first it may appear.
Homa hasn't played here for five years but was the 54-hole leader back then and ninth at the same stage a year before, so he's shown he can score across all three courses even if he's signed off both of these with poor rounds at the Stadium.
With a strong Sawgrass record, historically top-class wedge statistics behind him and three previous top-10s on his first start of the year, that's enough for me to take a chance at 80s and bigger.
Jacob Bridgeman impressed with fourth place in the Sony Open to make it five top-fives in the last 12 months, evidence of how good his A-game is. That A-game stems from elite putting, hardly the worst profile when at least 20-under is going to be necessary, and his wedge stats last year were largely solid, so with form figures of 39-21 in this he's an interesting one.
He has not yet produced successive good weeks though and has only once been legitimately in the mix, four of these high finishes having come from the clouds. Perhaps he's one to keep in mind if entering Sunday on the fringes of the top 10, although as touched upon this isn't necessarily the right event for a come-from-behind winner.
Alex Smalley has a strong record in this and spent some time at both Sawgrass and PGA West in the off-season, but his ball-striking was very poor over the final three rounds of the Sony Open and I'll side with major champion BRIAN HARMAN instead.
Form figures of MC-61 either side of Christmas are hardly inspiring but we were on when he flushed it early doors at the RSM Classic but couldn't get a putt to drop, a frustrating end to a promising autumn in which he'd contended for the DP World India Championship after a strong FedExCup Playoffs.
Before this he'd been 10th as defending champion in the Open, eighth in a Signature Event at Dye's River Highlands, third in another at Dye's Harbour Town, and won the Texas Open, so it was a successful season even if he wasn't as consistent as he'd have liked to be.
Harman by the way was 25/1 for the RSM, challenging for favouritism with Si Woo Kim, Harris English and Michael Thorbjornsen, who are all half the price he is here in the AmEx. Only Kim has a better record in it and it seems to be a pretty dramatic overreaction to shove him this far down the market.
Last week's modest return in the Sony is presumably the reason but that pipe-opener for a veteran like him doesn't feel like anything to worry about, and with such a strong bank of form on Dye courses including the one here at PGA West, he's too big a price to ignore.
Harman has been third in this twice, also eighth, 11th and 20th, and on six of his 12 appearances has been inside the top 25 at halfway as all champions here are. It's hard to be sure of the state of his game but we'll learn much more this week and at three-figure prices, a player who is still around 50th in the DataGolf rankings has been dismissed too lightly.
But let's end with an important reminder: this is golf's equivalent of a crapshoot. My advice is if you fancy a 300/1 shot, back them. If you can't see past the 3/1 favourite, just sit it out.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 20/01/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
