Adam Scott can go one better than when an unlucky second last year in this week's Scottish Open, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Scottish Open
1.5pts e.w. Adam Scott at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Thomas Detry at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Alejandro del Rey at 450/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The Renaissance is hard to separate from money. It'll cost you about the average annual salary to join, if they let you. Its owner has talked about the fortunes he spent on this project from day one. Initial members reportedly chipped in $250,000 each to help secure a 99-year lease from the family of somebody called the Duke of Hamilton. It's a private, exclusive club which for 51 weeks a year exists in a world that few occupy.
The original demand of the owner, made to Tom Doak, was to create a course fit to host a professional tournament. In some ways that seems at odds with its genesis; if you're getting this off the ground with a collective of members investing vast sums of money, why wouldn't you focus on making a course for them, rather than touring pros who rock up and then rock out on their way to next week's considerably bigger thing?
Whatever the logic, Doak and consultant Padraig Harrington have delivered as asked. This has been the home of the Scottish Open since 2019 and those behind it have not rested on their laurels. As professionals first made it look easy, and those on the outside lined up to qualify that this is not a links course in the truest sense, more and more money was invested in making it play more and more like one. And it is working.
Two years ago, Rory McIlroy pumped a two-iron under the breeze to rip the heart out of Robert MacIntyre, who then returned last summer to gain back what he'd lost and a little extra with a scintillating finish, equal parts lucky and brilliant, to deny Adam Scott. These are proper links golfers and, met with weather to complement the course, they have helped make this a fantastic way to prepare for the Open Championship.
Xander Schauffele won the Claret Jug after a staying-on 15th, Brian Harman won it after a staying-on 10th, and while Portrush is that pure links The Renaissance still is not, this is the place to be. First though, the Scottish Open is still a tournament to win. We're in an age of greater appreciation for national championships, led not only by McIlroy but by a defending champion who has won them in three countries. The Open can wait another week.
As well as the fact that some decorated links golfers have been in the mix in recent years, whereas the first three champions here have very little links form between them, we have to acknowledge how big the task is for DP World Tour players. Last year, Romain Langasque was the only player without a PGA Tour card who hit the frame, a year earlier MacIntyre had been, and in 2022 it was Jamie Donaldson.
It seems reasonable if not particularly enlightening to suggest that class will count again, but there's a more subtle hint which it could also pay to follow. I can't necessarily explain why, but it's hard to escape the fact that big hitters are doing best here. Some of the less heralded contenders in recent years have been real powerhouses and among the best Europeans last year were Niklas Norgaard and Alejandro del Rey.
Among the market leaders very few made serious appeal at the prices, with MacIntyre, Ludvig Aberg and Sam Burns the only three I considered strongly, and that's despite a sense that good weather and a course the better players are now familiar with should result in something predictable.
I just hope it might hit that lovely sweet spot of predictability and price, with ADAM SCOTT gaining compensation for last year.
Scott really was desperately unfortunate to lose to a player who went four-under for the final five holes, particularly given that the game looked up for MacIntyre before he was able to capitalise upon a stroke of fortune at the par-five 16th, where he was entitled to free relief from a horrible lie and went on to make eagle.
It had echoes of the previous year, when MacIntyre had to witness McIlroy making birdies at 17 and 18 to beat him by one, and while Scott has seemingly lost the winning knack I'm hopeful he can at least earn another crack at it just two starts on from the US Open.
He faded to 12th there at Oakmont but the bigger picture is top-20s at the last two majors, a third-round 62 at the Travelers, and plenty of signs that his game is better now than it has been for a year or more. In fact, you have to go back to last January for the last time he put together back-to-back ball-striking displays as good as his last two.
It's particularly pleasing to see his approach play improve as that's held him back all year and while statistics are of less significance when conditions change so drastically, it seems certain that Scott has his swing in a good place and feels positive about the coming weeks.
The Open really is the be all and end all for him this year as a player whose focus now is on peaking for the majors, but he played well in it last year off a runner-up finish in this and will know full well that getting the monkey off his back can only be a positive.
That gap since his last win now stands at five years and will remain the worry, but he has five top-10s in 10 DP World Tour starts over the last couple and another is on the cards if he picks up where he left off last time. Perhaps he'll do as MacIntyre did and ride his luck to a welcome win come Sunday.
Maverick wager
Next on my list is MAVERICK MCNEALY, who has been popular already but rightly so having been put in at a much bigger price than his form this year merits.
Since denying us a nice touch at the RSM Classic with his first pro win, McNealy has upped his game again without winning, playing as he now does on a stronger schedule. That schedule has featured eight Signature Events and he has three top-fives, more than Collin Morikawa. Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick have zero between them.
That's not to say McNealy merits prices quite so short and he's been undeniably inconsistent, not to mention frustrating as we seem to keep falling on the wrong side of him. But I do believe there's loads of upside about a player with realistic Ryder Cup ambitions and still plenty of potential, which that win should help him to reach.
And he's playing well. McNealy's latest Signature top-five came in the Memorial, after which he produced a mighty second round to make the cut in the US Open. Then came 12th place in the Travelers, his best result in that event so far thanks to two strong rounds at the weekend.
He's got coastal form and can flight the ball low so a bit of breeze shouldn't be a problem should it arrive, and while it was largely thanks to the putter he did play nicely on his sole previous start here, finishing 16th. That was three years ago and McNealy, 11th in the Ryder Cup standings, has just kept on improving since.
Available at 60/1 with all three firms who bet to 10 places, a touch bigger with those betting to six, anything 50s and upwards looks excellent value.
THOMAS DETRY is another strong driver who since last playing in this event has secured the biggest win of his career, a seven-shot romp in Phoenix which while not a Signature Event, is always a difficult tournament to close out.
That victory catapulted Detry into European Ryder Cup conversations but he's yet to fully back it up, however there have been better signs lately including a couple of decent efforts in strong fields, 18th in Canada, and 23rd in the US Open.
Detry ranked fifth in the tee-to-green stats at Oakmont, producing numbers similar to those of Phoenix, so that's a massively encouraging sign as to the state of his game and maybe he was just running out of steam come the Travelers, played at a course which really isn't made for him.
Despite that, the Belgian closed with his best round of the week and now comes to a course we know he loves.
Beer garden Toptracer @tomdetry 🍻#abrdnScottishOpen #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/ZYRj2PEEqG
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 10, 2021
"First of all, it's good to be back in Europe," he said after an opening 64 last year. "Haven't been back in pretty much since January, so it's nice to be back. I love the place and I love Scotland, which is good, and when the weather is like this, it's better in Scotland in my opinion.
"I have my family with me and I love the place and I love the course and I love the track. I feel like the course is getting better every year."
Detry's record at The Renaissance underlines why he speaks so fondly of it: six appearances, six cuts made, a luckless play-off defeat followed by a staying-on 10th the next year, and a couple of lightning-fast starts in two appearances since.
Now, as a PGA Tour winner, he ought to be far better equipped to hang around all week and having warmed up with a round at Portrush last Thursday, he should be fresh and raring to go on his first start back home since taking a massive step forward in his career.
Detry has a cottage he stays at on the property and calls The Renaissance 'my playground'. Ignore the Travelers and he looks a massive each-way player.
Twin appeal
Niklas Norgaard played well here last year and is a powerhouse who can putt, which looks a lovely formula in the conditions, but his wife is due to give birth and he's not played since the US Open. Jesper Svensson meanwhile has lost his putting touch so he too can be overlooked, despite meeting several criteria on paper.
But siding with Scandinavians in Scotland often pays and I'll take both the twins, RASMUS HOJGAARD and NICOLAI HOJGAARD, on this occasion.
Rasmus is the one who immediately stood out as he's been hitting the ball really well on the PGA Tour. Frustratingly, putting problems have kept him out of things, including when he ranked fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green in Canada, when we were on at a nice price.
He then hit the ball even better in the Rocket Classic only to suffer a narrow missed cut because of his short-game so we are left hoping for more in that department, but Rasmus has long been a streaky putter and he's holed his share here before, including when 10th in 2022.
Last year he shot a second-round 63 to lie fifth at halfway but was dealing with a hand injury and admitted to being rusty, which perhaps explains why he fell to 21st, but he went on to win the Irish Open a few months later and clearly has the skill set for this challenge.
Plus, having fallen to seventh in the Ryder Cup points race this is a massive event for him so while a few might find their focus drifting towards Portrush, that's not a luxury he can afford.
Neither can Nicolai and his hopes of a Rome reprisal are fading, but there have been just enough flashes lately to suggest he has a late run at the side left in him.
Since partnering with his brother to finish second in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he's made three cuts in four, missing the other only narrowly, and it's been good to see notable improvements with both his driving and iron play.
Too wild to capitalise on his prodigious length at times, Nicolai has been better lately and gained a couple of strokes off the tee in Canada, while either side of that he's ranked 15th and 12th in strokes-gained approach, the former coming in the PGA Championship.
Like his brother his putting comes and goes but what I really like is that on his last two appearances at The Renaissance, he's hit the ball beautifully: first in strokes-gained approach in 2023, then sixth in both that category and off-the-tee in 2024.
Hojgaard sat seventh and 11th at halfway in these two renewals and was even seventh after round one on debut before missing the cut, so he's shown promise on each visit. Buoyed by a return to the DP World Tour having been away since January, he can prove a threat.
I had intended to stick with PGA Tour members with Ben An, Chris Gotterup and Victor Perez all somewhat appealing, as is Denny McCarthy if you're willing to overlook some iffy form in the UK. The latter, whose irons look good, is one place ahead of Aberg in DataGolf's rankings but this is a long way from his comfort zone.
We did though manage to snag each-way returns with Langasque at 300/1 last year and I can't resist the challenge of finding the right DP World Tour player, among whom RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN stands out.
The Dane really does look to be a star in the making and while it's been feast or famine this year, all eight times he's made the weekend he's finished inside the top 25, nine of them top-15s, five of them top-10s, and three of them top-fives.
This includes on the PGA Tour, in admittedly weak company, when second in Puerto Rico and it also includes 10th place in the Dubai Desert Classic, results he's achieved largely without the help of his putter.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen takes on the 18th with just a six iron 😮#BMWInternationalOpen pic.twitter.com/48W6NiphGI
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 1, 2025
That club restricted him to 12th in the US Open, where he ranked seventh in the tee-to-green stats, and he filled the same slot last week in Germany where he defied an iffy start to briefly threaten the leaders, and it's likely going to determine how well he fares this week.
But I just can't turn down the chance to back him at around the 80/1 mark, particularly given that he finished fourth in the Dunhill Links last year and a respectable 22nd on his debut in that event in 2023, both before he became a DP World Tour member.
That bodes well for his prospects here and he's good enough to compete, in the process underlining that he too should be considered a viable option for Bethpage.
Finally, take your pick among a host of tempting options at massive odds but the one for me is ALEJANDRO DEL REY.
He missed the cut by one last week after a second-round 67 and it's striking how good his good golf was, with all eight birdies across the two rounds coming from close range.
Essentially, his early exit came down to two shots from 250 yards as he went after a couple of par-fives and missed in the wrong spots. That's fine with me and helps to hide plenty of encouraging signs from a player whose form has been largely poor since he won the Ras Al Khaimah.
But he was seriously impressive there, at a course where Dunhill Links winners Ryan Fox and Thorbjorn Olesen are past champions, and we have plenty of evidence that del Rey has the game for benign, low-scoring links golf, which I hope is what we're in for this week.
Last year he was 15th in this, despite finishing nearly last in Italy and Germany in the weeks running up to it, and among 23 birdies made as many as 18 of them were from inside 10 feet. He shot a second-round 62, too, and closed out with a 65 to further demonstrate what he can do on a good day.
Beyond that he's been 25th in one go at the Dunhill Links, 10th on his only other start in Scotland, fifth in an Irish Challenge and, last September, sat second after round one and fourth at halfway in the Irish Open at Royal County Down.
This massive hitter is driving it better now than he has done for more than a year and while we do need more from his approach play, that too has improved throughout three starts running, with last week's numbers undermined by those two long-distance shots into par-fives.
For the most part he was much better and with conditions set fair, he's worth having on-side at 250/1 and bigger.
Posted at 1800 BST on 07/07/25
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