Two big-hitting youngsters head Ben Coley's staking plan for the Mexico Open, as the PGA Tour season enters its closing stretch.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open
2.5pts e.w. Johnny Keefer at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2.5pts e.w. Marco Penge at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Kristoffer Ventura at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 150/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Will Gordon at 350/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It's been 20 months since the Mexico Open was last played, but whether that's long enough for backers of Aldrich Potgieter to recover from what happened to them in the winter of 2025 I'm really not sure.
Potgieter, whose freakish power made him a dream fit for Vidanta Vallarta, wound up in a play-off with the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour, Brian Campbell. Playing second, Campbell then sliced his weak drive into trees beyond the boundaries of the golf course only for his ball to ricochet back in play via a cart path. From there, he made a birdie which would be enough to beat a well-backed runner-up.
There had been three previous renewals of the Mexico Open here and each went to type: Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp. Finau and Rahm took turns in finishing runner-up, too, and while world-class golfers at the time they tell us so much about what's needed.
Those three names immediately call to mind Torrey Pines, an altogether tougher course but one where driver is the default club and where power can help to separate players. Interestingly, these courses rank first and second for average length of par-fours and par-fives on the PGA Tour and when you consider that this one also has a driveable par-four, the emphasis on hitting driver far and often is impossible to escape.
Detroit GC is another helpful guide, evidenced by the fact that Potgieter gained redemption at a course where Finau had won previously and was succeeded this summer by Michael Thorbjornsen. Finau also won the 3M Open a year after Mexico contender Cameron Champ did and Kurt Kitayama, runner-up to Rahm here, has since gone on to take that title, so we can probably find some clues there along with Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
The strongest though is in the identity of the man who should've won here last year, rather than the one who somehow did, and that even extends to Potgieter's clear weakness when chipping and pitching. As well as ranking first in the distance of its longer holes, Vidanta Vallarta ranks first in around-the-green straightforwardness (rather, last in around-the-green difficulty), so it really was a perfect fit for the runner-up. There are bad beats, and there's Aldrich Potgieter losing a play-off for the 2025 Mexico Open.
Wyndham Clark is a somewhat surprise entrant who has won three of his last 12 starts, all at courses where his power advantage was significant. One of these was a shootout at a wide-open Craig Ranch (even more useful a pointer next week) and while his performances here in 2022 and 2023 were modest, the last of them ended with a round of 65. He hadn't won anything at the time but returns a twice-major champion who seldom swims in waters this shallow.
Clark would be much preferred to a buoyant Tom Kim at the head of the betting and a top-price of 14/1 has to be considered reasonable, but I'm going to side with JOHNNY KEEFER to get off the mark instead.
This remains one of the brightest young talents on the PGA Tour and while he's not quite lived up to the hype which followed him from a dominant Korn Ferry Tour campaign into his rookie season, Keefer has wrapped up his card for 2027 having really started to look comfortable since the spring.
Keefer has five top-10s this year and four of them have come on courses which demand driver upon driver: Memorial Park, The Renaissance, Craig Ranch, and Black Desert. The latter was just a couple of starts ago and followed seventh place in the Biltmore Championship, so it's been a good run in he was also seventh in Scotland in July.
Last time out he took a slight backward step on his debut in Japan (three good rounds, one bad one) but that's nothing to dwell upon and, ranking inside the top 10 for distance of all drives and 15th in ball speed, he ought to love what he sees when arriving at Vidanta Vallarta.
"I feel like the game has been trending really nicely," was Keefer's takeaway in Utah and having won in scores of 26- and 30-under on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, this really does look a dream fit. Perhaps it'll even help that he's a longtime member at another Greg Norman-designed course in Texas, but regardless of that he looks one of the main threats to the favourite.
Ventura looks an ace bet
Max Homa and Harry Hall are classy operators who have enough to recommend them, but the latter is more effective with wedges than he is longer irons while Homa's overall approach play isn't quite there yet. Of the two, Homa appeals more as he's started this FedExCup Fall strongly and it's even possible to draw a line to his John Deere Classic runner-up finish in summer. He'd have been the last name off my shortlist.
There are a lot more shots from outside 175 yards than the average PGA Tour event and far fewer short-irons, and while it's early days, there's some evidence that the proximity stats from longer range will be a good pointer.
Two years ago, Jake Knapp and Sami Valimaki fought out the finish here and they'd go on to rank inside the top 20 in approaches from outside 200 yards, while in 2022, three of the first four on the leaderboard were inside the first dozen of more than 150 PGA Tour members. This course played to the strengths of all these players and even the unpredictasble Potgieter ranks 22nd this season.
In that spirit, KRISTOFFER VENTURA looks an ideal candidate and having been playing some of the best golf of his career this summer, he gets the vote to emulate namesake Kristoffer Reitan and win on the PGA Tour.
Ventura missed 10 solo cuts in succession from March to July but things have turned around markedly and he's made eight of nine since. They include top-fives at the ISCO and the Rocket Classic, the latter held at Detroit which looks a really good indicator.
So is Torrey Pines, where he was 22nd before that dismal run of missed cuts, and he'd been fourth there on his previous start. That came shortly before he finished 25th here last year, gaining 1.26 strokes per-round with his ball-striking but restricted by a neutral short-game.
Having also been 21st on a previous start in Detroit, Ventura has some excellent correlating form and as well as being comfortably above-average distance-wise, he currently ranks sixth in proximity from outside 200 yards. That puts him second in this field.
Last week didn't develop as he'd have liked after a good start but Bermuda is a test of accuracy and wedges, not distance and mid-irons like Vidanta Vallarta. A mid-pack finish therefore represents a perfectly acceptable preparation for an event which is far more suitable.
Both Korn Ferry Tour wins came at courses which have seen longer drivers thrive and Vidanta Vallarta contenders Cameron Champ and Alejandro Tosti appear on their respective rolls of honour, plus there's a nice additional nugget: though Norwegian, Ventura was born in Mexico and lived there until he was 12 years old.
This is a big talent whose turnaround now sees him sit just outside the top 100 in FedExCup points, and who now heads to his birthplace for a fortnight of real opportunity. Both courses suit – he played well at both last year – and he returns better than ever.
Luke Clanton's improved results (7-11) via improved putting mean he's given himself a chance to retain some form of status at the end of a largely forgetable year, and he has some strong results at Torrey Pines (15th), Detroit (10th) and Puerto Rico (5th). I wonder though if there are more suitable assignments still to come and will watch his progress with interest.
Instead, I'll stick to the long-held plan and add MARCO PENGE.
The Englishman was always going to be popular for this but rightly so and I thought it was a mature bit of schedule management to skip Bermuda last week. That course would've been far less suitable yet it still takes a load of self-belief to pass up an opportunity when you're sitting outside the top 100 in FedExCup points.
Penge has four chances left to get the right side of line (although would presumably be entitled to a minor medical extension) and the next three ought to be to his liking, but it's Vidanta Vallarta which appeals as the best fit for a player whose three DP World Tour wins all came on driver-heavy courses. The first of them was even on paspalum grass, with which European players are generally familiar given its prevalence in the Middle East and China.
He's above average in those 175-200 and 200-plus statistics, ranks fourth among this field in ball speed, and simply hasn't had many chances to open his shoulders and put his main strengths to use in an injury-interrupted season. Notably, one of those he did have towards the beginning of the year saw him lead at halfway at Riviera, where Potgieter and Knapp were inside the top 10 and former Mexico runner-up Kitayama finished second. Rahm has won there and Finau lost a play-off to Homa, hence the latter's appeal.
More recently, Penge contended in the British Masters and either side of that has made four cuts from four on the PGA Tour since returning from an enforced absence. They include a nice recovery to make the cut in Detroit, two rounds of 63 at Sedgefield and 10th place in the Biltmore, followed by an admittedly underwhelming debut in Utah.
Since then he's defied another slow start to be 20th on his first attempt at defending a title, that in a good Open de Espana, so providing he can be alert from the get-go on Thursday he looks a prime candidate to contend as his relative freshness becomes a potential asset this deep into a long campaign.
I'd honestly rate this the number one tournament for Penge on the PGA Tour as it blends a weaker field with an ideal course, so while it's matched by a shorter price, that appears fully merited. Him and Keefer are the two biggest threats to Clark in my view, more so than Kim at this golf course, and more so than Ben Griffin after an underwhelming run from him.
By now you'll understand the central argument and it was always going to lead towards the likes of Pierceson Coody, Gordon Sargent and Jesper Svensson, each of whom has something to recommend them. Sargent is by some measures the most appealing but he's also the hardest to weigh up and while his iron play has improved, he's just about last in long-range approaches among this field. That's too big of a concern to overlook.
From Davis to Davis
Cam Davis played beautifully throughout rounds two and three when selected last week, such that it felt a little cruel to be denied anything from that, be it a payout or even a run for our money in the end. Davis missed a two-foot putt on the 17th hole of round three; had that gone in, he'd have secured a partial place following the abandonment of round four but instead, we were left wondering what might have been.
He's been cut almost in half but will now need to hit many more drivers and that club remains the nagging worry, so while tempted I'll switch to DAVIS RILEY instead.
Keen followers of the PGA Tour will know that Riley is just about as extreme as it gets when it comes to the gap between a player's best and worst golf. This is someone who beat Scottie Scheffler to win his first individual PGA Tour title and who chased home Scheffler in a major last year. It's also someone who has failed to crack the top 100 a dozen times since the beginning of the 2025 season.
Riley's volatility is summed up by the fact he's taken part in 10 tournaments since June and on nine occasions has barely been a factor. On the other, he led through 54 holes and threatened to win a good renewal of the Rocket Classic, played at the aforementioned Detroit.
That's one of the reasons for siding with him along with top-10s both here and at the wide-open, low-scoring Craig Ranch, while he also has a Norman-design win at TPC San Antonio, the same course where Keefer is a member.
Riley won in Panama on the Korn Ferry Tour which bodes well for this trip to Mexico and he began this season leading through 54 holes in Hawaii, too, which made it no particular surprise when he again started strongly by the sea in Bermuda last week.
Nor was it a surprise when he back-pedalled thereafter but the way Riley hit the ball last Thursday suggests he's not far away, and as a long-enough driver who can light up the greens when he's on, this return to Vidanta Vallarta might just see him in his best light.
Space off the tee is a definite positive and two of his three previous visits have yielded strong driving numbers, so with his irons looking better lately there are reasons to be hopeful. That's enough for me to take a chance on a big, major-proven talent who is just outside the top 100 in FedExCup points, with his winner's exemption expiring at the end of this year.
In doing so, I will reiterate that he has blowout potential, but that's factored into the price and he has definite upside at a course we know suits.
Big-hitting Jimmy Stanger was somewhat interesting among the outsiders but as far as 300/1 shots go I doubt you'll find a better course fit than WILL GORDON, who therefore completes the staking plan.
Gordon clearly comes with negatives, such as a lack of tangible, recent form and his continuing putting problems, the result of which is a lowly FedExCup ranking. He needs a minor miracle between now and the end of the season if he's to be playing on the PGA Tour next year.
However, there's cause for optimism and that applies not just to this golf course, but to the way his game appears to be improving. At the most basic level, since the beginning of July he's played 36 rounds, never shooting higher than 72 and averaging under 69 – this is two shots lower than the first six months of the year and a per-round strokes-gained improvement of almost half a shot. That might not sound much, but it's equivalent to the difference between players ranked 70th and 120th this season, or between Rory McIlroy and someone like Maverick McNealy.
In amongst this, Gordon has been fourth in the Corales Puntacana, played under similar conditions on a big golf course where long driving and a high greens-in-regulation count make up a good chunk of the battle. That course also makes things a bit easier for weak chippers and while this year it went to a modest driver from the DP World Tour, that was the most freakish result of the season. Last year, the top three were all genuine powerhouses.
What goes into building 185+ ball speed?
— PGA Tour (@PGATour) November 14, 2023
Go all-access with Will Gordon as he tests his limits in the gym and on the course. pic.twitter.com/n74o5lzJKB
That brings us onto why Gordon works here. In the four seasons for which he's been ranked, he's never been outside the top 10 on the PGA Tour in ball speed. Better yet, he is a poor wedge player who is much better from long range; indeed, he ranks second in fairway proximity from 175-200 yards and 13th from outside 200, having been 18th and seventh last year. That's a good chunk of evidence that we're playing at the right kind of golf course.
More evidence can be found in fifth place at Craig Ranch and seventh at Torrey Pines, while even his Korn Ferry Tour win came at the chief expense of the huge-hitting MJ Daffue, with Scott Harrington and Dean Burmester two more long drivers who were right behind. Then there's Gordon's performance at El Camaleon three years ago, arguably the closest he's been to winning at this level. The course has a different aesthetic, but being close by in Mexico makes it a potentially decent guide too.
Also fifth in the Bahamas together with that more recent top-five in the Dominican Republic, Gordon has stacks of form on paspalum grass and it might help uncover some putting improvement, albeit that club cost him here last year. However, on debut in 2023, his only other visit to Vidanta Vallarta, Gordon sat fourth at halfway and fifth through 54 holes, ranking fifth off-the-tee and inside the top 25 in putting. It was his best golf of the year to that point even if he did fade on Sunday.
Much water has passed under the bridge since then, but his narrow missed cut in Bermuda came with everything against him. If he hits his irons as well here in Mexico, where the course could hardly be more suitable, then an above-average putting week would give him a genuine chance to produce the sort of performance he so desperately needs if he's to be playing in tournaments like this next season.
Posted at 09:00 BST on 26/10/25
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