Tony Finau can land the win at Torrey Pines he's so often promised in this week's rerouted Genesis Invitational, according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational
2.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 30/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 50/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Cameron Young at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Akshay Bhatia at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It was at Torrey Pines in 2008 that Tiger Woods produced his most defiant display to win the US Open, major number 14 of what surely now will be 15. Playing with a torn ACL and a double stress fracture of his tibia, Woods willed his putt into the hole to tie Rocco Mediate in regulation, then came back a day later and won.
Caddie Steve Williams later revealed that he told Tiger to withdraw for fear of jeopardising his career. In reply, Woods said: "Stevie, f**k you, I’m winning this tournament."
Almost 17 years on, Woods had intended to make his first start of the 2025 season in the Genesis Invitational, relocated to Torrey Pines following the devastating fires in Los Angeles last month. But there are some battles that can't be won and, following the death of his mother, Kultida, Woods withdrew from the tournament on Monday afternoon.
Without Woods in a playing capacity it'll be over to the current stars of the PGA Tour to deliver and to varying degrees they have done of late, largely thanks to Rory McIlroy's dazzling victory at Pebble Beach. A blowout for Thomas Detry wouldn't have been an obviously positive follow-up, but the return to form of Jordan Spieth in Phoenix sets things up nicely for this final event on the west coast swing.
Torrey Pines of course hosts the Farmers Insurance Open, which took place just three weeks ago. It would seem unlikely that officials could do much to change playing conditions, except perhaps to allow the rough to grow to help create something befitting of the smaller-but-stronger field. The best way to do that would be through the sort of wind that wreaked havoc in the Farmers and there is some forecast early in the tournament along with an almost guarantee of rain.
What we can be sure of is that only the South Course will be used, which means no respite of the North Course, typically much easier. The South is a beast: 7,765 yards, hard-to-hit fairways, small greens on which holing putts is particularly difficult. Only the sixth hole is a giveaway, that par-five sure to be the easiest on the course, but the other 17 will provide tough scoring conditions at a venue synonymous with the US Open and not just because of Tiger.
Harris English overcame a typically so-so driving display to win the Farmers last month and with Matthieu Pavon having preceded him, it's become harder to make the case that driving distance is the only starting point. I'd argue though that Pavon only just got the better of the huge-hitting Nicolai Hojgaard and that while English was a worthy winner of a weak edition of the Farmers played on a fiery golf course in volatile weather, powerful runner-up Sam Stevens was unlucky in more ways than one.
Had Hojgaard and Stevens won, we'd have yet more proof that Torrey Pines is perfect for the longer drivers and that remains my view. Such players benefit not only from the yardage (there are instances of courses being so long that a horseshoe effect means long driving isn't actually important) but the fact that fairways here are among the hardest to hit in golf, meaning those who are 20, 30, even 40 yards further down will benefit from the loft they can apply to an approach which seeks a tiny target.
All of this helps explain why it's worth going back in on CAMERON YOUNG after his eye-catching effort in Phoenix, with the forecast rain certainly a boost to his chances.
Despite arriving there seemingly out of sorts and carding an opening 74, Young found big improvements with his putter to shoot rounds of 64-66-67, still managing to three-putt the 17th on Saturday having set up a 40-foot eagle chance with another enormous drive.
Exceptional off the tee throughout those middle two rounds, Young added a red-hot putter for the second and fourth and in the end finished just a shot outside the top 10, no doubt his most encouraging performance of the season to date.
While he's been enormously frustrating to follow since two Korn Ferry Tour wins saw him vault to the PGA Tour in 2021, there's no doubt that Young is well capable of winning at this level and when it does happen there's a strong chance it's at a long, championship golf course.
He has not been a regular visitor here down the years, but buried within two seemingly modest performances is strong evidence that the South Course in particular plays to his strengths.
Young shot 64 here as a PGA Tour rookie, gaining more than seven strokes over the field and the best driver. His tee-to-green numbers were strong all week en route to 20th place and while he'd missed the cut in 2021, again his one South round was strong: third in strokes-gained approach, generally excellent ball-striking, but another poor day with the putter.
That club of course can be catastrophic, as it was prior to Phoenix, and the move back to greens like these is a bit of a worry. However, Young really is made for the other demands of the South Course and is one of just 10 players in this field who have gained more than two strokes per round on average here, removing the easier North Course from those calculations.
He's the best driver among those with multiple rounds and third in strokes-gained approach and remember when these numbers were made: first, in 2021, when he was a Monday qualifier who didn't even have full Korn Ferry Tour status; then, a year later, when a PGA Tour rookie whose opening two results of the year read MC-40.
Buoyed, surely, by the way he performed in Phoenix, Young could not be coming to a better course than this one. He wouldn't need to replicate last week's phenomenal putting (fourth) to have a chance here and I'm very keen to go in again, having seen him contend at Riviera and Bay Hill and generally look like the Torrey Pines prototype throughout his career to date.
When will Tony Finau win again? Well...
I might've rushed to the case for Young somewhat and it would be remiss of me not to talk about the big two, Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy. Both last played here in the 2021 US Open and both tied for seventh in very different ways: Scheffler with career-best putting figures, McIlroy through a typically strong ball-striking performance.
What to make of that I'm not exactly sure, but we missed the boat with McIlroy last time and while he'd be the pick of the two again, I'm not at all inclined to take close to half the odds under much more demanding conditions. McIlroy can do it anywhere, a fact he referenced following that victory at one of golf's 'cathedrals', but this pay-and-play chapel won't be as straightforward as an outgrown Pebble Beach.
With Collin Morikawa frustrating there, Ludvig Aberg last seen withdrawing with a nasty bout of flu and Hideki Matsuyama currently unable to find fairways, the way might be clear for TONY FINAU to finally win the Farmers without actually winning the Farmers.
Six top-10s in 11 appearances at Torrey Pines certainly confirm him a genuine Torrey Pines specialist and while yes, he's demolished the North Course a handful of times, his record at the tougher South stands up to scrutiny too.
Finau shot a closing 69 for sixth behind Matthieu Pavon when, as has often been true, the putter cost him. A year earlier he'd dazzled with a Saturday 64 and even an opening 73 could've been much better, as he lost fully five strokes to the field with the putter.
Right back to his 2015 debut, Finau has looked capable of winning that tournament, shooting a good 71 around the South then later climbing from 21st at halfway to finish fourth thanks to a 67-71 weekend in 2017. That was the first of four top-10s in five and every time he's made the cut in the Farmers he's been inside the top 30 at halfway, often much closer than that.
Yes, he missed the cut here in January but there's some vital context to be applied. Those, like Finau, who played the South Course on Wednesday and found themselves caught on the North Course during Thursday's high winds, were on the wrong end of a significant draw bias. So was Thomas Detry, who did well to finish 15th and has since won, and so was Shane Lowry, who missed the cut then finished second days later.
Finau's level-par opener at the South was a familiar tale, better than the field average despite ranking 68th in putting, and as with Young that club will be key. It has since fired for a top-20 finish at the far less suitable Pebble Beach and it fired for 15th in The Sentry, where low scoring never plays to his strengths. If it fires here, we know for sure that the demands of Torrey Pines are perfect.
Finau was a 20/1 shot for the Farmers and the opportunity to back him at twice the price in this stronger but smaller field can't be passed up.
Can't lay Cantlay at inflated odds
Sungjae Im's approach play worries me a bit but his course record demands respect and he overcame that draw bias to finish fourth here, stating at the time that he felt it would set him up for the Genesis. I've a feeling the Korean may win again this year but on balance, where he's concerned, would rather accept likely shorter odds at something like the Cognizant or the Wyndham.
Instead I'm compelled to go in again on PATRICK CANTLAY despite an ultimately disappointing performance at Pebble Beach a fortnight ago.
Cantlay was 72nd of 77 players in strokes-gained putting for that event, a big downturn on the previous few weeks, and with his approach play as good as it has been for a long time to rank ninth, there were enough positives to give him another spin even if he did fail to build on a very bright start.
Of course, we have to accept the fact that he's winless in a couple of years now but he's drifted out to sit alongside Taylor Pendrith and Jason Day in the betting and for my money, that's an overreaction. Certainly, doubling in price from a virtually identical event where he was up close to the lead early on is much more dramatic a shift than I'd expected.
That does reflect the change in course and as a Pebble Beach specialist who has seldom played Torrey Pines, I understand that his odds had to move. However he did finish 15th in a US Open at the South Course and his rare Farmers starts do come with some excuses, such as early on in his comeback in 2018 (hit it really well at times) and when failing to properly capitalise on the North Course in 2019.
Last year's lowly finish is the biggest negative and I don't expect this argument to win many over, but Cantlay certainly isn't playing badly overall. He has seven top-20s in his last eight US starts and had four top-level top-fives last year. He's from California, no doubt he prefers the South to the North, and if his putter fires he'll likely threaten the places and potentially more.
Again, at Pebble Beach he and Collin Morikawa were 14/1 and 16/1. I don't really understand how the market reaches respective prices of 14/1 and 30/1 two weeks later and the longer, softer course will serve him better than it will his Ryder Cup teammate.
Aberg was my headline selection for the Farmers and went very short in-running after an opening 63 around the North Course, only for flu to intervene. He can be excused that gutsy effort but went on to withdraw after a shocking start at Pebble Beach and while back in action at home and seemingly fighting fit, it might just be back to square one after an encouraging return from surgery.
Day was hurt by the draw and a hopeless putting week there and is a two-time course winner with obvious claims, who I'd certainly prefer to Pendrith despite his red-hot form and even to Tommy Fleetwood, who lacks experience here and isn't putting well at the moment. That might not change until he gets back to the east coast.
Slightly better value than Day lies with WILL ZALATORIS, who skipped the Farmers when a heavily-punted 20/1 shot and is now behind several players he was ahead of in the betting for that event.
That's presumably because he was 48th at Pebble Beach last time, but when you consider that he'd been 68th and 56th in two previous starts there, his performance becomes much less of a concern.
Here at Torrey Pines he's been second, seventh and 13th from six appearances and there's no doubt he's built for the demands of the South Course in particular. In fact if you work backwards from today and tick off all his top-10 finishes you see championship courses, long courses; tournaments where pars are worth plenty.
That list reads Augusta, Bay Hill, Riviera, Southwind, Brookline, Muirfield Village, Southern Hills and Torrey Pines and that's why it was so easy to be taken with his first two efforts this season, where he was close to the leaders in a pair of genuine shootouts in Hawaii and the California desert.
Events like those will likely never suit Zalatoris and scoring was lower than he'd have wanted at Pebble Beach, too, so this is certainly the best test for him on the PGA Tour since right back to last autumn's Playoffs, where again he flirted with contending.
Back at Torrey Pines after two sub-70 rounds to sign off from a golf course he really isn't keen on, Zalatoris has to be worth chancing.
Along with Day, Maverick McNealy was the other one I found hardest to leave out, but I do like the chances of AKSHAY BHATIA at 66/1 and bigger and he's the final selection.
The left-hander is another who hails from California and having made the cut in the US Open here at Torrey Pines, he returned in 2024 to finish 13th on his debut in the Farmers, better than McNealy has so far managed in seven attempts.
Fast forward a year and Bhatia skipped that event owing to a hectic schedule to begin the year, one which took in trips to Hawaii and Dubai. So far it's been solid if not quite lucrative, with finishes of 32-37-22-32 enough to suggest that he isn't at all far away.
Asked whether he felt he was in poor form following a good start in Phoenix, Bhatia replied emphatically: "No, it's just building up to something good. I had a nice finish at Pebble last week and brought some momentum here.
"It's been a little bit of a hectic week for me. I had some sponsor stuff on Tuesday, so I flew to Vegas Monday night, came back Tuesday night from Vegas. It's been a different way of prepping, but it's a solid start to this tournament."
Perhaps that disrupted preparation explains why he couldn't kick on but Bhatia did drive the ball well for three of the four rounds, a significant step back towards the levels he demonstrated throughout last year, and it sets him up nicely for a return to a golf course he likes.
Indeed he was held back a little by the North Course last year, losing about a stroke to the field, but for which he might've been in the mix. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he put that right this week, in the process reminding us all that he's a potential Ryder Cup candidate for Bethpage.
Posted at 2100 GMT on 10/02/25
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