Ben Coley's golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship

6pts win Jon Rahm at 13/2 (Betfair Exchange, Sporting Index, SpreadEx, AK Bets)

2pts e.w. Angel Ayora without McIlroy/Rahm at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. David Puig without McIlroy/Rahm at 22/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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Cast your mind back 12 months, when Rory McIlroy was capturing his seventh Race to Dubai and fourth in a row, and think about how implausible it would've seemed to posit Patrick Reed and Jon Rahm as two of his biggest threats to a record eighth title. Even the most vocal critics of LIV Golf would've had a hard time envisioning that it would be declaring bankruptcy during the same week that Rahm, already departed, finally looked like Rahm again. Nobody had expected Reed to run straight to the LIV exit door after winning the Dubai Desert Classic, either.

And that's to say nothing of McIlroy and Reed sharing warm handshakes on the driving range last week, before Reed then supported his playing partner in a rules controversy. Thereafter, the Abu Dhabi Championship played out as one big sugar rush for fans of the DP World Tour, with the best players in the field all in the mix, all seemingly having the time of their lives. To become Delia Smith for a moment: where are you, Bryson? Let's be having you.

Now, we head into the concluding DP World Tour Championship with a perfect blend of circumstances. McIlroy still isn't in pole position for that record Race to Dubai win, with surprise leader Eugenio Chacarra clinging on for dear life. The threats to him don't just come from McIlroy and Rahm, either: Casey Jarvis is in fourth and could feasibly stun them all, while major champion Aaron Rai must still harbour ambitions from fifth place, just ahead of Rahm. This could hardly be set up better.

Beyond that scramble for top honours, we also have 10 PGA Tour cards up for grabs. The man in 10th isn't sure he's ready, the man in ninth has never won a professional title of any note, while those in eighth and seventh are veterans who might see this as their last chance. Those occupying the 11th, 12th and 13th places are all Spanish, led by Angel Ayora, one of the brightest stars in the game but with no time to lose now teenagers are winning PGA Tour titles again. This subplot and all its possibilities might be more interesting than the one it theoretically sits beneath.

And then there is the actual tournament, whose ramifications will be felt in these Race to Dubai battles. Come Sunday afternoon, while those of us watching from home will be projecting like a 1990s high school teacher, those in the arena will have the DP World Tour Championship itself to keep their minds occupied. It promises to be a thrilling end to one of the most significant seasons in the modern history of the DP World Tour, which may yet be followed by one of the most competitive given the anticipated influx of stateless talent in 2027.

The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates (designed, remember, by the former LIV chief, Greg Norman), was built to favour players who, like Norman, drive the ball really well. This is a lot longer and significantly more length-favouring than last week's venue, Yas Links, a point underlined by last year's leaderboard. Among the world-class players in the mix were a cluster of slightly lesser lights and each of the main ones – Laurie Canter, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Angel Ayora – is supreme off the tee.

In fact, they ranked 11th, sixth and fourth respectively in strokes-gained off-the-tee for the season. Second was Rahm, third was McIlroy, seventh was Nicolai Hojgaard; they'd combined to win the previous three renewals, and Rahm and McIlroy have three victories each at a golf course which is perfect for them. This isn't to exclude those who score in different ways, only to say that there is a definite advantage for those who can perhaps reach the 15th and then hit their drives directly over the centre-line bunker at the 16th, before going right rather than left on 18 too.

All of which is to say the case for McIlroy is hard to argue with, but I prefer JON RAHM at almost twice the odds.

It does not come easily to me to put up a player who won at a much bigger price last week, but it's worth remembering that Rahm entered Abu Dhabi off a long break following the single worst performance of his career. In the months before his Wentworth shocker, he'd been well below his best, too. Those few who took their chances deserve enormous credit, but there were many unknowns that helped to explain a price which now looks a gift.

How much that should sway things now is hard to say, but when we're revising the odds of a player like Rahm, whose ceiling we have a good grip on, there's more room for manoeuvre. If he is back to his best, which he sure looked to be during an imperious final round, then 6/1 to beat a field absent of Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry and Robert MacIntyre, at a course we know he adores, can still represent excellent value.

On last week's performance, and a record here which reads 1-4-1-1-5, I believe that's exactly what he is and in truth, he'd be four-from-five at the Earth Course had his putter behaved on his last visit. This is also a player who has won back-to-back twice before, one of those instances culminating here, and who is in a dreamy position on the Race to Dubai: not expecting to win it, but knowing that he must win the tournament if he's to have a chance.

I'd stress again how good he was at Yas Links. Only a dozen players got within 10 shots of Rahm, and his dominance of the par-fives (12-under, third in the field) bodes well for a tougher course where scoring on those holes in crucial. Most of all, I love what we saw from his approach play (second in the field) and would wager he's hit no more than a handful of shots better than his tournament-defining approach to the 15th. That was his sixth and final birdie of the final round; five of them came from close range.

That iron play seals the deal for me, Rahm having spoken of how this was up there with the best of his career, while his less impressive driving numbers were as much as anything the consequence of tactical decisions, such as laying back off the first. Bar one or two poor swings, this very much looked like the Rahm of old and as he said himself, there'd been something hanging over him from spring through to his departure from LIV which helps explains a loss of form. It's gone now.

"If I keep hitting the irons and putting the way I have, I'll definitely have a chance," was his sign-off, and I agree. Therefore, in a field absent of many of the best Europeans, those left having dominated last week, he rates almost as likely a champion as McIlroy in my eyes. Remember, before the post-Augusta dominoes began falling, he was a couple of points shorter than McIlroy for the Masters. It's really not that long ago.

McIlroy of course merits respect, his driving having been outstanding in another field-leading tee-to-green display, but it may be worth nothing how superior Rahm has been when they've both played in this event. The score reads 3-0-1 in Rahm's favour (i.e. one tie); his scoring average is well over a shot lower and his tee-to-green game numbers are much superior.

Much depends then on which version of each player we have in front of us. On last week's evidence, the version of Rahm is the one we all remember from 2023 and before. Instead of dwelling on what proved to be a fantastic opportunity at Yas Links, I think the right thing to do is to believe what we saw and act accordingly.

Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton have both done everything but win this title and are the next most likely champions, but after that things become less clear cut. I'm of the view that Chacarra will find this a tall order and remember, he'll be teeing off with McIlroy on Thursday which will hardly help to keep matters in perspective. On that, it's surely no bad thing that Rahm will be playing with Rai on day one.

Rai is yet to better 40th in this limited-field event, which is as clear evidence as you could ask for that players with his fairways-first skill set face an uphill battle, and Adam Scott makes no appeal at short odds.

As such, the ones I find most appealing as alternatives to the big two are Matt Wallace, ANGEL AYORA, DAVID PUIG, and Matthew Jordan.

Wallace hit the ball well enough last week to merit a second glance having been runner-up twice in this before before, but despite that I'd have Yas Links (where he also boasts an excellent record) down as more suitable. Here, he'd need his putter to be red-hot to overcome a driving handicap and the fact he's losing strokes off the tee in the event (20 measured rounds) says it all.

By contrast, the Earth Course could draw even more out of Ayora and Puig and they're selected in what could be a famous week for Spanish golf.

Ayora went 9-8 across these two events when a rookie last year but fifth place last week offers the promise of further improvement, especially as he was not at his customary best off the tee. That can be seen in one of two ways, but to a degree it reflects the nature of these courses and the fact that this one is far more vulnerable to his major weapons.

We saw that last year when he was the single best ball-striker in an elite field, ranking second off-the-tee and third with his approaches, and with the latter having come back to form in Abu Dhabi, the change of scenery may be all that's needed for him to be right in the mix come Sunday.

Ayora currently lies 11th in the subplot mentioned above, meaning he's likely a top-10 finish (or perhaps less than that) from a PGA Tour card, and I'm happy backing him to rise to that particular challenge and perhaps even win his first DP World Tour title in such a big, marquee event.

He has his critics, because expectations are so high, but Ayora boasts a phenomenal 16 top-10s in 16 months and has been getting closer and closer to winning. We've seen a raft of youngsters breaking through on the PGA Tour and he could well seal his place alongside them by capturing this, no doubt spurred on by the success of his compatriots further up the Race to Dubai.

Ayora is fancied to do enough to earn a PGA Tour card and hopefully that takes the form of a Sunday challenge at the very least.

Puig is a course debutant, but the timing is perfect because he dialled in his irons last week, ranking 10th. Combine that with his typically assured putting, and last year's Australian PGA champion is another who must be a factor here if he can get back to what he does best off the tee and bully the scoring holes.

Unlike Ayora, we can't call upon this tournament for evidence, but we have a very nice line of form from the start of the season, when he went 3-7 in the Dubai Invitational and the Dubai Desert Classic. The latter saw him play much better than that, getting within one stroke of Reed during the final round but then receiving a two-shot penalty on the final hole because he grounded his club in a bunker.

Puig was 18/1 for that full-field event for which McIlroy was 3/1 favourite, so to have Puig quoted at about twice that price for this even more suitable golf course, on the back of fifth place, is a bit of a surprise. That reflects a summer downturn, but he's now 3-3-7-5 in the UAE, has three more top-10s in Saudi Arabia, and this former Arizona standout is built for desert golf as he showed once more last week.

Like Ayora, he's been trimmed accordingly but this 7,700-yard course is so well set-up for both of them. Readers can make their own minds up when it comes to playing with or without the favourites, but I could well envisage a Spanish one-two led by Rahm and will stake accordingly.

Jordan also made some appeal after another outstanding tee-to-green performance and I wouldn't read too much into his modest course form, as his most recent visit came amid a poor run. He has the right fundamentals, but as demonstrated in Abu Dhabi, it's going to be nigh on impossible to carry a cold putter against a handful of the best players in Europe.

Given what we've seen from him under the gun this autumn, perhaps it's asking too much for the 30-year-old to break his duck here and as I respect Wallace, Hatton and Fleetwood, the top English market isn't an option either. But I will say this: in 12 months, you can expect Jordan to return here as one of the key players in the battle for PGA Tour cards, regardless of the handouts given to some of those departing LIV players.

For now, we'll give the edge to Spain. It's even possible that one of the above selections helps Chacarra to fend off McIlroy, but I won't be at all surprised if Rahm ends a tumultuous period in his career by lifting both this title and the Race to Dubai, reminding us all of his generational talents which never did belong where he ended up. Welcome back.

Posted at 20:00 GMT on 09/11/25

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