Following Thorbjorn Olesen's withdrawal, Ben Coley is left with three outright selections for the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana Championship
2pts e.w. Chan Kim at 33/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Alejandro Tosti at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
- 3pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 28/1 refunded after withdrawal
If you are looking for an indication as to what the Corales Puntacana Championship is all about, then look to the favourites. Alex Smalley’s form figures coming here read MC-MC-MC. Keith Mitchell has faded after strong starts across the same three events, and both players last hit the frame in October.
Yet it’s hard to really argue with their positions at the front of this market, particularly with Ben Griffin a potential candidate to withdraw – he’s currently first alternate for the far more lucrative, far closer to home RBC Heritage, and if I were him I think I’d go there instead and cross my fingers.
Smalley boasts excellent course form and is a player I do like a lot. Mitchell was runner-up here back in 2018 and has all the ability in the world, only you do wonder if he’ll ever learn to be kinder to himself on the course. The former Honda Classic winner, best known for his snappy garb, talks himself out of things far too regularly and is hard to trust.
It’s easy to be snide about these opposite tournaments and there’s no doubt there’s a lack of obvious winning form on display, but two years ago Wyndham Clark played here and a few months later he was a major champion. Billy Horschel won this title in 2024, Matt Wallace before him, and Graeme McDowell is another past winner.
Class then can go a very long way at this big, resort-style golf course whose wide fairways make quality approach play key. Yes, it looks made for bigger hitters like 2023 runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard on paper, but a year later the short-hitting Wesley Bryan finished second and similar players have gone one better than he did.
They’re certainly not out of it, which we often see when fairways are this wide, although there’s no denying that any long-hitter who can dial in their iron play should be at a sizeable advantage given the sheer size of the golf course.
One striking feature of most winners has been the most obvious: a flash of recent form. Horschel had been threatening in better tournaments and Wallace arrived after a top-10 finish at the Valspar. With these fields stronger since the creation of Signature Events, we should expect the form book to hold up more than it once did.
That perhaps makes Mitchell the man to beat but beating him is always possible and THORBJORN OLESEN might be the man to do it.
- Olesen withdrew after publication - bets are void
I actually think there’s a pretty strong case for making the Dane favourite here after his fifth place in Texas last time out. Sixth in strokes-gained off-the-tee and third in the tee-to-green charts, Olesen managed that without putting as we know he can.
Of course, Brian Harman’s procession means he was never really in the conversation but Olesen nevertheless produced one of the strongest pieces of recent form in this field, and he did it without the help of the strongest club in his bag.
He’d played well beforehand, too, missing cuts at the Cognizant and the Houston Open only narrowly and finishing mid-pack in the Valspar. All of these featured markedly stronger fields and none of them was on a course as suitable as this one should be.
OIesen has always appreciated a bit of space off the tee as he can be erratic at times, so any course you could reasonably describe as ‘second shot’ is a positive. So might be the grass, paspalum, which is seen quite often on the DP World Tour including for Olesen’s two most recent wins. Maybe that helps explain why some Europeans have gone so well in this before.
The fact that the breeze is up at the weekend is no bad thing for this former Dunhill Links winner with an Open top-10 to his name, and to that end his performance in Texas could represent an ideal way to prepare – it was particularly windy at the weekend and he signed off with the low round on Sunday.
Just last year Olesen was playing in the Masters so, like Horschel and Wallace and McDowell before him, he has that class, that sense of belonging somewhere else, which should help provide motivation as he seeks to properly establish himself on the PGA Tour and push for a Ryder Cup place.
Ultimately, he’s a prolific champion, whose form at the back-end of last year would entitle him to be favourite. That he isn’t probably reflects the fact he’s making his debut here, but I’d be near certain Puntacana suits him down to the ground.
Next on the list is CHAN KIM, an obvious selection but value in a congested market at 25s and bigger.
Like Olesen, Kim was tied for fifth after a strong final round in Texas, though a bogey at the closing par-five potentially cost him third place on his own.
He ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green there and had been 13th in the same category on his prior start, with his approach play particularly good in both. The hope is that remains, and these wider fairways allow him to prove more tractable off the tee.
Two top-20s in Puerto Rico correlate really well with this as do finishes of eighth and 17th from two starts in the Mexico Open, but the clearest indication we could ever need comes via last year’s performance.
Kim shot 66 to open and 65 to close to finish sixth, having arrived with a broadly similar set of results to his name, and with that debut experience behind him better is possible.
Kim, a multiple winner worldwide, is narrowly preferred to Wallace, champion here in 2023.
Like Olesen, Wallace ended last year in sparkling form but he’s really struggled with the putter lately, was slightly disappointing in Puerto Rico, and his solid Texas Open came at a course we know he loves.
My preferred profile for this is a genuinely class act for the grade who has shown hints of form lately, and arguably no man fits that description better than EMILIANO GRILLO.
The Argentine boasts a gorgeous swing and has been a serious ball-striker ever since he arrived on the DP World Tour as a teenager, regularly pounding fairways and greens but so often coming unstuck with the putter.
His long-game class predictably earned him a PGA Tour card and he won on his first start as a member, before waiting almost eight years to double up – something he did at Colonial in dramatic fashion when we were on board.
Since then it’s been a generally lean period but there have been clear signs of improvement lately, with finishes of 22nd in the Valspar and 18th in the Texas Open sandwiching 47th in Houston, where a long, rain-softened course wasn’t for him.
In fact his promising run extends back further to The PLAYERS and his halfway positions across these four events read 11-9-19-6, a clear indication to my eye that he’s getting close to putting four rounds together.
“Yeah, definitely trending,” was his assessment in Texas last time. “I wouldn't call a big stretch of the season because I'm not in the majors or big events. For now it's just more tournaments, just more regular tournaments. But yeah, definitely trending, going the right direction. I'm putting well and starting to see some good signs.”
The drop in grade could be all it takes for that to happen but the course is a good one too, as he’s a fabulous iron player at his best. He’s also been sixth here back in 2021, while his record at the similar Puerto Rico Open is even better with second, third and 11th to his name there.
Strong in Mexico too, Grillo should be at ease in the Dominican Republic and when he’s dropped in grade in the past, he’s been dangerous. Take for example the Barracuda, where he’s contended on his last two of just three starts, and the Barbasol, where he was 10th on his sole appearance.
Like Olesen, he was at the Masters last year and hopefully watching that unfold helps him to extend two or three rounds’ worth of promise all the way through this winnable event.
Tosti arrives in red-hot form
Pierceson Coody was in the mix at halfway last year before fading to 18th and his form looks stronger this time. Granted, 41st on the Korn Ferry Tour was unspectacular but that came at a course which isn’t made for him and this should be far more suitable.
Steven Fisk meanwhile came good this time last year and has been playing nicely for a while now, his ball-striking particularly strong. Placed in Puerto Rico, where his putter potentially cost him the win, he’s clearly good enough to contend if that club behaves itself.
Also on the shortlist was Charley Hoffman, still a very good player for this grade even at 48. Hoffman placed last year, was 14th on debut and contended on another occasion so the course is a good fit.
Preference though is for ALEJANDRO TOSTI, a debutant who should really enjoy this test and has played so well in each of his last two starts.
Tosti hit the frame for us at a massive price in Houston, where he ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, then he led that category for 12th place in the Texas Open, at a course where he’d struggled badly a year earlier.
Not only has his driver really come around of late, improving four starts running and back now at the levels we’d come to expect, but he’s never produced a period of such sustained, high-quality approach play, gaining in the region of 0.9 strokes per round from Sawgrass onwards.
351 yards... Island green... Alejandro Tosti goes full send at Valhalla! 💪#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/5LOF4rVwyv
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) February 23, 2025
Sharp around the greens, Tosti’s putter cost him another top-five finish last time and it certainly prevented him from challenging Min Woo Lee in the final round of the Houston Open before that, though he has at least gained strokes in two of his last four starts.
It’s a club I’m willing to chance around a wide, long course like this, which seems to correlate well with the similarly long course at which he won on the Korn Ferry Tour. It definitely shares similarities with Vidanta Vallarta, where he has twice been 10th, and he’s contended in the Dominican Republic at a lower level.
Siding with not one but two combustible Argentines is risky business but Tosti’s Korn Ferry Tour exploits in 2023 confirm him a class above that grade, which means he’s more than good enough to win in this one. This is the right sort of course to prove it.
At bigger prices it’s hard to knock the correlating form of Rafael Campos, a former runner-up here, a regular contender in his native Puerto Rico and, late last year, a fabulous winner in Bermuda.
He did OK on his Masters debut last week, despite missing the cut, and with the wind set to blow to a challenging level he should have his conditions. He was one of two outsiders I considered, the other being William Mouw.
Placed in Puerto Rico and having shown flashes of promise in Texas the last twice, Mouw looks to be finding his feet and is a Korn Ferry Tour graduate I like. He’s improved since seeing college teammate Joe Highsmith land the Cognizant and could find his way into the mix at what should be a suitable course.
Posted at 1200 BST on 15/04/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
